LOST Case LOST France 1-2 Ivory Coast
Fixture Case File · Ref V
F

France

Home Side
W W W W D
8W 1D 1L → Holding Steady
VS
1-2
I
Ivory Coast
Away Side
W W L W W
7W 1D 2L → Holding Steady
CASE VERIFIED
68%
Thursday, 4th June 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on France to win
France 60%
Draw 20%
Ivory Coast 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob74.6%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-6.6%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBF<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<I<<<<<C<<<<<<<<<<E22F7E8064DFB2609212M2609219<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 5 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — France to win
1.34
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals85% Ivory Coast Clean Sheet60%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
France vs Ivory Coast Competition: International Friendly Date: Thursday, 4th June 2026 Pick: 1 (France to win) Odds: 1.34 Confidence: 68% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Also: Ivory Coast Clean Sheet (60%) Ledger Ref: E22F7E806
Head to Head
Record
2
France
1
Draws
0
Ivory Coast
3
Meetings
2
Avg Goals
33%
BTTS
67%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing France won 2 of the last 3 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
France
Metric
Ivory Coast
2.7
Goals For / Game
2
1.1
Goals Against / Game
0.7
40%
Clean Sheets
60%
8-1-1
W — D — L
7-1-2
Win Rate
80%
70%
3.3
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
I0
I1
I2
I3
I4
I5
F0
0-0 3.9%
0-1 6.0%
0-2 4.7%
0-3 2.4%
0-4 0.9%
0-5 0.3%
F1
1-0 6.6%
1-1 10.2%
1-2 7.9%
1-3 4.1%
1-4 1.6%
1-5 0.5%
F2
2-0 5.6%
2-1 8.7%
2-2 6.7%
2-3 3.5%
2-4 1.4%
2-5 0.4%
F3
3-0 3.2%
3-1 4.9%
3-2 3.8%
3-3 2.0%
3-4 0.8%
3-5 0.2%
F4
4-0 1.4%
4-1 2.1%
4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
F5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(8.7%) 1-0(6.6%) 2-0(5.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing F=Home goals ↓   I=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
France Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Ivory Coast Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
France
Overall
8.3
Scoring
9.0
Defence
6.3
Ivory Coast
Overall
7.3
Scoring
6.7
Defence
7.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Home Win & BTTS No 28%
Draw & BTTS Yes 3%
Draw & BTTS No 3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Away Win & BTTS No 24%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 33%
Home Win & Under 2.5 18%
Draw & Over 2.5 4%
Draw & Under 2.5 2%
Away Win & Over 2.5 29%
Away Win & Under 2.5 15%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
25.03.22FI
France2
Ivory Coast1
15.11.16FI
France0
Ivory Coast0
17.08.05FI
France3
Ivory Coast0
Recent Form
France
29.03.26FI
Colombia1
France3
W
26.03.26FI
Brazil1
France2
W
16.11.25WC
Azerbaijan1
France3
W
13.11.25WC
France4
Ukraine0
W
13.10.25WC
Iceland2
France2
D
10.10.25WC
France3
Azerbaijan0
W
09.09.25WC
France2
Iceland1
W
05.09.25WC
Ukraine0
France2
W
08.06.25UNL
Germany0
France2
W
05.06.25UNL
Spain5
France4
L
Ivory Coast
31.03.26FI
Scotland0
Ivory Coast1
W
28.03.26FI
South Korea0
Ivory Coast4
W
10.01.26ACN
Egypt3
Ivory Coast2
L
06.01.26ACN
Ivory Coast3
Burkina Faso0
W
31.12.25ACN
Gabon2
Ivory Coast3
W
28.12.25ACN
Ivory Coast1
Cameroon1
D
24.12.25ACN
Ivory Coast1
Mozambique0
W
18.11.25FI
Oman0
Ivory Coast2
W
14.11.25FI
Saudi Arabia1
Ivory Coast0
L
14.10.25WC
Ivory Coast3
Kenya0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Thursday, 4th June 2026, France host Ivory Coast in International Friendly. Our analysis desk recommends France to win as the standout selection.

France arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Ivory Coast are travelling well, with a record of 7W 1D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour France, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Ivory Coast's 0, with 1 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 33% of those meetings.

Our verdict: france to win at odds of 1.34 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This International Friendly game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.34. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 5 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for France vs Ivory Coast?
Our selection is 1 — France to win, priced at approximately 1.34. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is France's current form?
France have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Ivory Coast been performing recently?
Ivory Coast have recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
France lead with 2 wins versus Ivory Coast's 0, with 1 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 33%.
⚠️
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