WON Case WON Borneo 2-0 Persita
Fixture Case File · Ref V
B

Borneo

Home Side
W W W W W
7W 2D 1L ▼ Trending Down
VS
2-0
P
Persita
Away Side
W L L L L
4W 0D 6L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
52%
Tuesday, 5th May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Borneo to win
Borneo 50%
Draw 30%
Persita 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob70.9%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-18.9%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBB<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<P<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<2592C71FE4DFB2609102M2609109<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 5 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
3
Borneo
5
Draws
1
Persita
9
Meetings
2.3
Avg Goals
67%
BTTS
44%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Borneo won 3 of the last 9 meetings (5 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Borneo
Metric
Persita
2.6
Goals For / Game
1.1
1
Goals Against / Game
1
20%
Clean Sheets
10%
7-2-1
W — D — L
4-0-6
Win Rate
70%
40%
2.9
Avg Goals
60%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
B0
0-0 5.8%
0-1 6.1%
0-2 3.2%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
B1
1-0 10.4%
1-1 10.9%
1-2 5.7%
1-3 2.0%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
B2
2-0 9.4%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 5.2%
2-3 1.8%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
B3
3-0 5.6%
3-1 5.9%
3-2 3.1%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
B4
4-0 2.5%
4-1 2.7%
4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
B5
5-0 0.9%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(10.4%) 2-1(9.8%) 2-0(9.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing B=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Borneo Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Persita Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Borneo
Overall
7.6
Scoring
8.7
Defence
6.7
Persita
Overall
4.0
Scoring
3.7
Defence
6.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Home Win & BTTS No 26%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Away Win & BTTS No 15%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 32%
Home Win & Under 2.5 26%
Draw & Over 2.5 4%
Draw & Under 2.5 4%
Away Win & Over 2.5 19%
Away Win & Under 2.5 15%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
09.01.26SL
Persita2
Borneo0
22.02.25SL
Persita1
Borneo2
30.09.24SL
Borneo0
Persita0
02.03.24SL
Persita0
Borneo1
25.08.23SL
Borneo2
Persita1
20.02.23SL
Persita1
Borneo1
09.09.22SL
Borneo2
Persita2
02.02.22SL
Persita1
Borneo1
02.10.21SL
Borneo2
Persita2
Recent Form
Borneo
29.04.26SL
Persik Kediri0
Borneo1
W
25.04.26SL
Borneo3
Semen Padang0
W
18.04.26SL
PSM Makassar1
Borneo2
W
11.04.26SL
Borneo5
PSBS Biak Numfor1
W
05.04.26SL
Madura United1
Borneo3
W
15.03.26SL
Borneo1
Persib Bandung1
D
07.03.26SL
Borneo5
Persebaya1
W
03.03.26SL
Persija Jakarta2
Borneo2
D
26.02.26SL
Borneo3
Arema FC1
W
22.02.26SL
Dewa United2
Borneo1
L
Persita
30.04.26SL
PSIM Yogyakarta0
Persita1
W
23.04.26SL
Persita0
Bali United1
L
19.04.26SL
Persik Kediri1
Persita0
L
10.04.26SL
Persita0
Arema FC1
L
04.04.26SL
Persebaya1
Persita0
L
07.03.26SL
Persita4
Madura United1
W
02.03.26SL
PSM Makassar2
Persita4
W
26.02.26SL
Persita0
Dewa United1
L
22.02.26SL
Persib Bandung1
Persita0
L
16.02.26SL
Persita2
PSBS Biak Numfor1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 5th May 2026, Borneo host Persita in Indonesia Super League. Our analysis desk recommends Borneo to win as the standout selection.

Borneo arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Persita are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 0D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Borneo, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Persita's 1, with 5 draws from 9 encounters. Both teams have scored in 67% of those meetings.

Our verdict: borneo to win at odds of 1.41 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Indonesia Super League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.41. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 5 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Borneo vs Persita?
Our selection is 1 — Borneo to win, priced at approximately 1.41. Tip confidence rating: 52%.
What is Borneo's current form?
Borneo have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Persita been performing recently?
Persita have recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Borneo lead with 3 wins versus Persita's 1, with 5 draws across 9 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
⚠️
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