WON Case WON AFC Fylde 2-0 Marine
Fixture Case File · Ref V
A

AFC Fylde

Home Side
W L W W W
7W 1D 2L ▲ Trending Up
VS
2-0
M
Marine
Away Side
L W D W L
5W 1D 4L ▲ Trending Up
CASE VERIFIED
65%
Tuesday, 31st March 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on AFC Fylde to win
AFC Fylde 50%
Draw 30%
Marine 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob78.1%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-13.1%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBAFC<F<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<M<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<DD04BE42A4DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 31 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
6
AFC Fylde
1
Draws
0
Marine
7
Meetings
2.3
Avg Goals
14%
BTTS
43%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing AFC Fylde won 6 of the last 7 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
AFC Fylde
Metric
Marine
2.8
Goals For / Game
1.6
1
Goals Against / Game
1.2
10%
Clean Sheets
50%
7-1-2
W — D — L
5-1-4
Win Rate
70%
50%
3.3
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
A0
0-0 3.7%
0-1 4.8%
0-2 3.1%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
A1
1-0 7.4%
1-1 9.6%
1-2 6.2%
1-3 2.7%
1-4 0.9%
1-5 0.2%
A2
2-0 7.4%
2-1 9.6%
2-2 6.2%
2-3 2.7%
2-4 0.9%
2-5 0.2%
A3
3-0 4.9%
3-1 6.4%
3-2 4.2%
3-3 1.8%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.2%
A4
4-0 2.5%
4-1 3.2%
4-2 2.1%
4-3 0.9%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
A5
5-0 1.0%
5-1 1.3%
5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.6%) 1-0(7.4%) 2-0(7.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓   M=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
AFC Fylde Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Marine Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
AFC Fylde
Overall
7.3
Scoring
9.3
Defence
6.7
Marine
Overall
5.3
Scoring
5.3
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 27%
Home Win & BTTS No 27%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Away Win & BTTS No 19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 32%
Home Win & Under 2.5 22%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 23%
Away Win & Under 2.5 15%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
01.11.25
NLN: Marine0
AFC Fylde1
11.07.17
CF: Marine0
AFC Fylde5
18.01.14
NPL: Marine1
AFC Fylde2
17.09.13
NPL: AFC Fylde0
Marine0
01.04.13
NPL: AFC Fylde2
Marine0
01.01.13
NPL: Marine0
AFC Fylde4
29.09.12
FAT: AFC Fylde1
Marine0
Recent Form
AFC Fylde
28.03.26
NLN: AFC Fylde4
Darlington1
W
21.03.26
NLN: Worksop Town1
AFC Fylde0
L
17.03.26
NLN: Hereford1
AFC Fylde4
W
14.03.26
NLN: AFC Fylde4
King’s Lynn1
W
10.03.26
NLN: AFC Fylde2
AFC Telford1
W
07.03.26
NLN: Leamington1
AFC Fylde1
D
03.03.26
NLN: South Shields2
AFC Fylde1
L
28.02.26
NLN: AFC Fylde5
Curzon Ashton1
W
24.02.26
NLN: Macclesfield1
AFC Fylde4
W
21.02.26
NLN: Buxton0
AFC Fylde3
W
Marine
28.03.26
FAT: Wealdstone1
Marine0
L
21.03.26
NLN: AFC Telford0
Marine2
W
17.03.26
NLN: Peterborough Sports0
Marine0
D
14.03.26
NLN: Marine4
Worksop Town2
W
10.03.26
NLN: Marine2
Macclesfield4
L
07.03.26
NLN: King’s Lynn1
Marine0
L
28.02.26
FAT: Marine1
Woking0
W
24.02.26
NLN: Kidderminster4
Marine0
L
21.02.26
NLN: Oxford City0
Marine2
W
14.02.26
NLN: Marine5
Leamington0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 31st March 2026, AFC Fylde host Marine in National League North. Our analysis desk recommends AFC Fylde to win as the standout selection.

AFC Fylde arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Marine are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 1D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour AFC Fylde, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Marine's 0, with 1 draws from 7 encounters. Both teams have scored in 14% of those meetings.

Our verdict: afc fylde to win at odds of 1.28 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This National League North game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.28. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 31 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for AFC Fylde vs Marine?
Our selection is 1 — AFC Fylde to win, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 65%.
What is AFC Fylde's current form?
AFC Fylde have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Marine been performing recently?
Marine have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
AFC Fylde lead with 6 wins versus Marine's 0, with 1 draws across 7 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 14%.
⚠️
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