WON Case WON Throttur 2-0 Grindavik
Fixture Case File · Ref V
T

Throttur

Home Side
L L D L W
6W 1D 3L → Holding Steady
VS
2-0
G
Grindavik
Away Side
L D W L D
4W 5D 1L ▲ Trending Up
CASE VERIFIED
82%
Monday, 1st June 2026 Case Verdict
Over 2.5
Filing on over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob75.8%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge+6.2%Value detected
Kelly %25.8%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBT<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<G<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<172C43ADE4DFB2609222M2609229<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 2 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.32
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Throttur vs Grindavik Competition: Iceland Division 1 Date: Monday, 1st June 2026 Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals) Odds: 1.32 Confidence: 82% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Ledger Ref: 172C43ADE
Head to Head
Record
5
Throttur
1
Draws
4
Grindavik
10
Meetings
4.1
Avg Goals
80%
BTTS
90%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Over 2.5 in 90% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Throttur
Metric
Grindavik
2.4
Goals For / Game
1.5
1.4
Goals Against / Game
0.9
30%
Clean Sheets
40%
6-1-3
W — D — L
4-5-1
Win Rate
60%
40%
3.1
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
G0
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
T0
0-0 4.5%
0-1 6.5%
0-2 4.7%
0-3 2.3%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.2%
T1
1-0 7.4%
1-1 10.8%
1-2 7.8%
1-3 3.8%
1-4 1.4%
1-5 0.4%
T2
2-0 6.1%
2-1 8.9%
2-2 6.5%
2-3 3.1%
2-4 1.1%
2-5 0.3%
T3
3-0 3.4%
3-1 4.9%
3-2 3.6%
3-3 1.7%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.2%
T4
4-0 1.4%
4-1 2.0%
4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.7%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
T5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(10.8%) 2-1(8.9%) 1-2(7.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing T=Home goals ↓   G=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Throttur
Overall
6.3
Scoring
8.0
Defence
5.3
Grindavik
Overall
5.5
Scoring
5.0
Defence
7.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Home Win & BTTS No 16%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Away Win & BTTS No 11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 30%
Home Win & Under 2.5 16%
Draw & Over 2.5 15%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 20%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
25.07.25D1
Grindavik1
Throttur2
18.05.25D1
Throttur2
Grindavik4
08.02.25CUP
Throttur3
Grindavik2
29.08.24D1
Grindavik2
Throttur2
30.06.24D1
Throttur1
Grindavik0
31.08.23D1
Throttur5
Grindavik0
30.06.23D1
Grindavik1
Throttur2
19.08.21D1
Grindavik2
Throttur1
10.06.21D1
Throttur2
Grindavik3
19.08.20D1
Throttur2
Grindavik4
Recent Form
Throttur
27.05.26D1
Throttur2
Grotta3
L
22.05.26D1
Afturelding4
Throttur3
L
18.05.26D1
Throttur1
Leiknir1
D
13.05.26CUP
Throttur1
Breidablik2
L
09.05.26D1
Volsungur0
Throttur3
W
01.05.26D1
Throttur3
IR Reykjavik1
W
25.04.26D1
Throttur2
Njardvik0
W
04.04.26CUP
Vestmannaeyjar2
Throttur3
W
28.03.26CUP
Throttur3
Olafsvik1
W
05.03.26CUP
Throttur3
Fylkir0
W
Grindavik
27.05.26D1
Afturelding1
Grindavik3
L
22.05.26D1
Leiknir0
Grindavik0
D
17.05.26D1
Grindavik3
Volsungur1
W
13.05.26CUP
Akranes3
Grindavik2
L
08.05.26D1
IR Reykjavik2
Grindavik2
D
01.05.26D1
Grindavik0
Njardvik0
D
25.04.26D1
Vestri1
Grindavik1
D
06.04.26CUP
Grindavik2
Keflavik1
W
28.03.26CUP
Ellidi0
Grindavik2
W
07.03.26CUP
KA Akureyri0
Grindavik0
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Monday, 1st June 2026, Throttur host Grindavik in Iceland Division 1. Our analysis desk recommends over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Throttur arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Grindavik are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 5D 1L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Throttur, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Grindavik's 4, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 80% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.32 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Iceland Division 1 game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is Over 2.5, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.32. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 2 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Throttur vs Grindavik?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.32. Tip confidence rating: 82%.
What is Throttur's current form?
Throttur have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Grindavik been performing recently?
Grindavik have recorded 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Throttur lead with 5 wins versus Grindavik's 4, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.
⚠️
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