LOST Case LOST Torpedo Kutaisi 1-2 Gagra
Fixture Case File · Ref V
T

Torpedo Kutaisi

Home Side
W W W D D
5W 5D 0L → Holding Steady
VS
1-2
G
Gagra
Away Side
W L D L L
2W 4D 4L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
60%
Thursday, 28th May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Torpedo Kutaisi to win
Torpedo Kutaisi 50%
Draw 30%
Gagra 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob67.6%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-7.6%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBT<<<<<<<K<<<<<<<<<<<<<G<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<D8C98D6204DFB2609202M2609209<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 28 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Torpedo Kutaisi to win
1.48
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Torpedo Kutaisi vs Gagra Competition: Georgia Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga Date: Thursday, 28th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Torpedo Kutaisi to win) Odds: 1.48 Confidence: 60% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Ledger Ref: D8C98D620
Head to Head
Record
9
Torpedo Kutaisi
1
Draws
0
Gagra
10
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Torpedo Kutaisi won 9 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Torpedo Kutaisi
Metric
Gagra
2.1
Goals For / Game
0.9
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.3
30%
Clean Sheets
20%
5-5-0
W — D — L
2-4-4
Win Rate
50%
20%
2.6
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
G0
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
T0
0-0 7.8%
0-1 6.6%
0-2 2.8%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
T1
1-0 13.3%
1-1 11.3%
1-2 4.8%
1-3 1.4%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
T2
2-0 11.3%
2-1 9.6%
2-2 4.1%
2-3 1.2%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.0%
T3
3-0 6.4%
3-1 5.4%
3-2 2.3%
3-3 0.7%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
T4
4-0 2.7%
4-1 2.3%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
T5
5-0 0.9%
5-1 0.8%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(13.3%) 2-0(11.3%) 2-1(9.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing T=Home goals ↓   G=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Torpedo Kutaisi Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Gagra Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Torpedo Kutaisi
Overall
6.5
Scoring
7.0
Defence
7.3
Gagra
Overall
3.2
Scoring
3.0
Defence
5.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Home Win & BTTS No 17%
Draw & BTTS Yes 23%
Draw & BTTS No 16%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 17%
Home Win & Under 2.5 26%
Draw & Over 2.5 16%
Draw & Under 2.5 23%
Away Win & Over 2.5 7%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
17.04.26EL1
Gagra2
Torpedo Kutaisi2
17.10.25EL1
Gagra0
Torpedo Kutaisi2
03.08.25EL1
Torpedo Kutaisi2
Gagra1
24.04.25EL1
Torpedo Kutaisi2
Gagra1
01.03.25EL1
Gagra1
Torpedo Kutaisi2
27.11.24EL1
Torpedo Kutaisi2
Gagra0
22.09.24EL1
Gagra0
Torpedo Kutaisi3
24.05.24EL1
Torpedo Kutaisi2
Gagra1
07.04.24EL1
Gagra0
Torpedo Kutaisi1
29.10.23EL1
Gagra1
Torpedo Kutaisi2
Recent Form
Torpedo Kutaisi
24.05.26EL1
Dinamo Tbilisi0
Torpedo Kutaisi1
W
20.05.26EL1
Meshakhte Tkibuli1
Torpedo Kutaisi4
W
15.05.26EL1
Torpedo Kutaisi2
Dila Gori1
W
10.05.26EL1
Iberia 19991
Torpedo Kutaisi1
D
05.05.26EL1
Torpedo Kutaisi1
Rustavi1
D
01.05.26EL1
Spaeri1
Torpedo Kutaisi1
D
27.04.26EL1
Dinamo Batumi0
Torpedo Kutaisi3
W
21.04.26EL1
Torpedo Kutaisi6
Samgurali1
W
17.04.26EL1
Gagra2
Torpedo Kutaisi2
D
07.04.26EL1
Torpedo Kutaisi0
Dinamo Tbilisi0
D
Gagra
24.05.26EL1
Gagra2
Dila Gori0
W
20.05.26EL1
Iberia 19991
Gagra0
L
16.05.26EL1
Gagra1
Rustavi1
D
11.05.26EL1
Spaeri3
Gagra0
L
06.05.26EL1
Gagra1
Dinamo Batumi2
L
02.05.26EL1
Samgurali2
Gagra0
L
27.04.26EL1
Gagra1
Meshakhte Tkibuli1
D
21.04.26EL1
Dinamo Tbilisi0
Gagra1
W
17.04.26EL1
Gagra2
Torpedo Kutaisi2
D
07.04.26EL1
Dila Gori1
Gagra1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Thursday, 28th May 2026, Torpedo Kutaisi host Gagra in Georgia Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga. Our analysis desk recommends Torpedo Kutaisi to win as the standout selection.

Torpedo Kutaisi arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 5 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Gagra are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 4D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Torpedo Kutaisi, who lead the head-to-head with 9 wins to Gagra's 0, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: torpedo kutaisi to win at odds of 1.48 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Georgia Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.48. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 28 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Torpedo Kutaisi vs Gagra?
Our selection is 1 — Torpedo Kutaisi to win, priced at approximately 1.48. Tip confidence rating: 60%.
What is Torpedo Kutaisi's current form?
Torpedo Kutaisi have won 5, drawn 5 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Gagra been performing recently?
Gagra have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Torpedo Kutaisi lead with 9 wins versus Gagra's 0, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
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