Fixture Case File · Ref V
A

Atletico-MG U20

Home Side
W W W W L
8W 0D 2L ▲ Trending Up
VS
PP
C
Chapecoense-SC U20
Away Side
D D L L L
3W 3D 4L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
63%
Wednesday, 27th May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Atletico-MG U20 to win
Atletico-MG U20 50%
Draw 30%
Chapecoense-SC U20 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob79.4%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-16.4%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBA<<<<<<<<MG<U20<<<<<<<C<<<<<<<<<<<SC<U248E2AB1C24DFB2609202M2609209<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 27 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Atletico-MG U20 to win
1.26
BTTS — No75% Atletico-MG U20 Clean Sheet80%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Atletico-MG U20 vs Chapecoense-SC U20 Competition: Brasileiro U20 B Date: Wednesday, 27th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Atletico-MG U20 to win) Odds: 1.26 Confidence: 63% Also: BTTS — No (75%) Also: Atletico-MG U20 Clean Sheet (80%) Ledger Ref: 48E2AB1C2
Head to Head
Record
2
Atletico-MG U20
1
Draws
0
Chapecoense-SC U20
3
Meetings
2.3
Avg Goals
33%
BTTS
33%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Atletico-MG U20 won 2 of the last 3 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Atletico-MG U20
Metric
Chapecoense-SC U20
2.4
Goals For / Game
0.8
0.6
Goals Against / Game
1.4
80%
Clean Sheets
30%
8-0-2
W — D — L
3-3-4
Win Rate
80%
30%
2.6
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
25%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
A0
0-0 7.4%
0-1 5.2%
0-2 1.8%
0-3 0.4%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
A1
1-0 14.1%
1-1 9.9%
1-2 3.5%
1-3 0.8%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
A2
2-0 13.4%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 3.3%
2-3 0.8%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
A3
3-0 8.5%
3-1 5.9%
3-2 2.1%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 4.0%
4-1 2.8%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 1.5%
5-1 1.1%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(14.1%) 2-0(13.4%) 2-1(9.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓   C=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Atletico-MG U20 Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Chapecoense-SC U20 Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Atletico-MG U20
Overall
8.0
Scoring
8.0
Defence
8.0
Chapecoense-SC U20
Overall
3.9
Scoring
2.7
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 16%
Home Win & BTTS No 48%
Draw & BTTS Yes 3%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 6%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 29%
Home Win & Under 2.5 35%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 13%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
18.07.21BRA
Atletico-MG U200
Chapecoense-SC U200
26.10.20BRA
Atletico-MG U202
Chapecoense-SC U200
17.07.19BRA
Chapecoense-SC U202
Atletico-MG U203
Recent Form
Atletico-MG U20
23.05.26MIN
Villa Real U200
Atletico-MG U205
W
20.05.26BRA
Brusque U200
Atletico-MG U203
W
14.05.26BRA
Atletico-MG U203
Mirassol U200
W
10.05.26MIN
Atletico-MG U202
America MG U200
W
02.05.26MIN
Cruzeiro U203
Atletico-MG U202
L
29.04.26BRA
Ceara U203
Atletico-MG U202
L
22.04.26BRA
Atletico-MG U203
Novorizontino U200
W
17.04.26MIN
Atletico-MG U201
Minas Boca U200
W
11.04.26MIN
Atletico-MG U202
Sao Joao del Rei U200
W
08.04.26BRA
Atletico-MG U201
Goias U200
W
Chapecoense-SC U20
23.05.26CAT
Nacao U201
Chapecoense-SC U201
D
20.05.26BRA
Chapecoense-SC U200
Ceara U200
D
16.05.26CAT
Barra FC U202
Chapecoense-SC U200
L
13.05.26BRA
Goias U204
Chapecoense-SC U200
L
09.05.26CAT
Chapecoense-SC U200
Criciuma U203
L
03.05.26CAT
Figueirense U201
Chapecoense-SC U201
D
30.04.26BRA
Chapecoense-SC U202
Brusque U200
W
25.04.26CAT
Joinville U202
Chapecoense-SC U203
W
22.04.26BRA
CRB U201
Chapecoense-SC U200
L
19.04.26CAT
Chapecoense-SC U201
Carlos Renaux U200
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Wednesday, 27th May 2026, Atletico-MG U20 host Chapecoense-SC U20 in Brasileiro U20 B. Our analysis desk recommends Atletico-MG U20 to win as the standout selection.

Atletico-MG U20 arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Chapecoense-SC U20 are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 3D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Atletico-MG U20, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Chapecoense-SC U20's 0, with 1 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 33% of those meetings.

Our verdict: atletico-mg u20 to win at odds of 1.26 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Brasileiro U20 B game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.26. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 27 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Atletico-MG U20 vs Chapecoense-SC U20?
Our selection is 1 — Atletico-MG U20 to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is Atletico-MG U20's current form?
Atletico-MG U20 have won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Chapecoense-SC U20 been performing recently?
Chapecoense-SC U20 have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Atletico-MG U20 lead with 2 wins versus Chapecoense-SC U20's 0, with 1 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 33%.
⚠️
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