WON Case WON Singida 4-1 Mbeya City
Fixture Case File · Ref V
S

Singida

Home Side
L L W W W
5W 1D 4L ▲ Trending Up
VS
4-1
M
Mbeya City
Away Side
D L L W D
2W 3D 5L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
59%
Tuesday, 26th May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Singida to win
Singida 60%
Draw 20%
Mbeya City 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob81.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-22.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBS<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<M<<<<<C<<<<<<<<<<70380D9164DFB2609202M2609209<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 27 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
4
Singida
2
Draws
0
Mbeya City
6
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
67%
BTTS
33%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Singida won 4 of the last 6 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Singida
Metric
Mbeya City
1.6
Goals For / Game
0.8
1.1
Goals Against / Game
2.2
30%
Clean Sheets
20%
5-1-4
W — D — L
2-3-5
Win Rate
50%
20%
2.9
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
S0
0-0 5.8%
0-1 5.5%
0-2 2.6%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
S1
1-0 11.0%
1-1 10.4%
1-2 5.0%
1-3 1.6%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
S2
2-0 10.4%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 4.7%
2-3 1.5%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
S3
3-0 6.6%
3-1 6.3%
3-2 3.0%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
S4
4-0 3.1%
4-1 3.0%
4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 1.2%
5-1 1.1%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(11.0%) 2-0(10.4%) 2-1(9.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing S=Home goals ↓   M=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Singida Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Mbeya City Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Singida
Overall
5.3
Scoring
5.3
Defence
6.3
Mbeya City
Overall
2.9
Scoring
2.7
Defence
2.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Home Win & BTTS No 31%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 28%
Home Win & Under 2.5 28%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
12.04.26FAC
Singida Black Stars5
Mbeya City1
15.03.26LKB
Mbeya City1
Singida Black Stars4
05.02.23LKB
Singida Black Stars2
Mbeya City0
08.10.22LKB
Mbeya City1
Singida Black Stars1
15.04.21LKB
Singida Black Stars1
Mbeya City0
02.11.20LKB
Mbeya City1
Singida Black Stars1
Recent Form
Singida
22.05.26LKB
Young Africans3
Singida Black Stars0
L
16.05.26FAC
Coastal Union1
Singida Black Stars0
L
12.05.26LKB
Singida Black Stars1
Namungo0
W
09.05.26LKB
Singida Black Stars4
Mtibwa Sugar0
W
05.05.26LKB
Singida Black Stars3
Pamba1
W
02.05.26LKB
Coastal Union2
Singida Black Stars1
L
16.04.26LKB
Mashujaa1
Singida Black Stars1
D
12.04.26FAC
Singida Black Stars5
Mbeya City1
W
08.04.26LKB
Singida Black Stars1
Kinondoni MC0
W
05.04.26LKB
TRA United2
Singida Black Stars0
L
Mbeya City
21.05.26LKB
Namungo1
Mbeya City1
D
13.05.26LKB
Mbeya City0
Coastal Union2
L
09.05.26LKB
JKT Tanzania1
Mbeya City0
L
04.05.26LKB
Tanzania Prisons1
Mbeya City2
W
30.04.26LKB
Mbeya City0
Mashujaa0
D
16.04.26LKB
Young Africans6
Mbeya City0
L
12.04.26FAC
Singida Black Stars5
Mbeya City1
L
09.04.26LKB
Mbeya City0
Azam0
D
03.04.26LKB
Mbeya City3
Kinondoni MC2
W
15.03.26LKB
Mbeya City1
Singida Black Stars4
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 26th May 2026, Singida host Mbeya City in Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara. Our analysis desk recommends Singida to win as the standout selection.

Singida arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Mbeya City are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 3D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Singida, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Mbeya City's 0, with 2 draws from 6 encounters. Both teams have scored in 67% of those meetings.

Our verdict: singida to win at odds of 1.23 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.23. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 27 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Singida vs Mbeya City?
Our selection is 1 — Singida to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 59%.
What is Singida's current form?
Singida have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Mbeya City been performing recently?
Mbeya City have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Singida lead with 4 wins versus Mbeya City's 0, with 2 draws across 6 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
⚠️
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