WON Case WON El Gaish 1-0 Pharco
Fixture Case File · Ref V
E

El Gaish

Home Side
L W D D L
4W 3D 3L ▲ Trending Up
VS
1-0
P
Pharco
Away Side
L D D L L
1W 4D 5L ▼ Trending Down
CASE VERIFIED
90%
Monday, 18th May 2026 Case Verdict
1X
Filing on El Gaish to win or draw
Implied Prob90.9%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-0.9%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBE<<G<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<P<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<9BE2E77064DFB2609102M2609109<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 19 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1X — El Gaish to win or draw
1.10
Under 2.5 Goals85% BTTS — No70% El Gaish Clean Sheet60%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
El Gaish vs Pharco Competition: Egypt Premier League Date: Monday, 18th May 2026 Pick: 1X (El Gaish to win or draw) Odds: 1.10 Confidence: 90% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (85%) Also: BTTS — No (70%) Also: El Gaish Clean Sheet (60%) Ledger Ref: 9BE2E7706
Head to Head
Record
4
El Gaish
6
Draws
0
Pharco
10
Meetings
1.4
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
10%
Over 2.5
Neutral Insufficient H2H data.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
El Gaish
Metric
Pharco
0.7
Goals For / Game
0.5
0.6
Goals Against / Game
1
60%
Clean Sheets
10%
4-3-3
W — D — L
1-4-5
Win Rate
40%
10%
1.4
Avg Goals
45%
Over 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
30%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
E0
0-0 24.7%
0-1 13.6%
0-2 3.7%
0-3 0.7%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
E1
1-0 21.0%
1-1 11.5%
1-2 3.2%
1-3 0.6%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
E2
2-0 8.9%
2-1 4.9%
2-2 1.4%
2-3 0.3%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
E3
3-0 2.5%
3-1 1.4%
3-2 0.4%
3-3 0.1%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
E4
4-0 0.5%
4-1 0.3%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
E5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-0(24.7%) 1-0(21.0%) 1-1(11.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing E=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
El Gaish
Overall
4.9
Scoring
2.3
Defence
8.0
Pharco
Overall
2.2
Scoring
1.7
Defence
6.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Home Win & BTTS No 33%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 29%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 4%
Away Win & BTTS No 8%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 7%
Home Win & Under 2.5 40%
Draw & Over 2.5 6%
Draw & Under 2.5 35%
Away Win & Over 2.5 2%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
04.01.26CUP
El Gaish1
Pharco0
19.08.25PL
Pharco0
El Gaish1
26.01.25PL
El Gaish0
Pharco0
12.12.24CUP
Pharco1
El Gaish1
20.07.24PL
El Gaish0
Pharco0
25.02.24PL
Pharco1
El Gaish1
26.01.24CUP
Pharco0
El Gaish1
16.05.23PL
El Gaish2
Pharco2
04.01.23PL
Pharco1
El Gaish1
28.07.22PL
Pharco0
El Gaish1
Recent Form
El Gaish
13.05.26PL
Al Ittihad1
El Gaish0
L
07.05.26PL
El Gaish1
Ghazl El Mahallah0
W
03.05.26PL
Haras El Hodood0
El Gaish0
D
29.04.26PL
Modern Sport0
El Gaish0
D
24.04.26PL
El Gaish1
Kahrabaa Ismailia2
L
18.04.26PL
Arab Contractors2
El Gaish0
L
13.04.26PL
El Gaish2
Petrojet0
W
09.04.26PL
El Gaish1
National Bank Egypt0
W
05.04.26PL
El Ismaily0
El Gaish0
D
29.03.26CUP
El Gaish2
Wadi Degla1
W
Pharco
12.05.26PL
Pharco0
Modern Sport1
L
08.05.26PL
Kahrabaa Ismailia0
Pharco0
D
04.05.26PL
Pharco1
Arab Contractors1
D
28.04.26PL
ZED1
Pharco0
L
24.04.26PL
Pharco0
El Gouna1
L
18.04.26PL
Petrojet1
Pharco0
L
13.04.26PL
Pharco2
Haras El Hodood1
W
08.04.26PL
Wadi Degla2
Pharco0
L
04.04.26PL
Pharco1
Ghazl El Mahallah1
D
22.03.26PL
Al Ittihad1
Pharco1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Monday, 18th May 2026, El Gaish host Pharco in Egypt Premier League. Our analysis desk recommends El Gaish to win or draw as the standout selection.

El Gaish arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Pharco are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 4D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour El Gaish, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Pharco's 0, with 6 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: el gaish to win or draw at odds of 1.10 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Egypt Premier League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1X, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.10. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 19 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for El Gaish vs Pharco?
Our selection is 1X — El Gaish to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.10. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is El Gaish's current form?
El Gaish have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Pharco been performing recently?
Pharco have recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
El Gaish lead with 4 wins versus Pharco's 0, with 6 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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