WON Case WON FC Gandzasar 0-2 Pyunik Yereven
Fixture Case File · Ref V
F

FC Gandzasar

Home Side
L L L W D
3W 2D 5L ▲ Trending Up
VS
0-2
P
Pyunik Yereven
Away Side
W L D W L
5W 2D 3L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
63%
Monday, 18th May 2026 Case Verdict
2
Filing on Pyunik Yereven to win
FC Gandzasar 20%
Draw 30%
Pyunik Yereven 50%
H Fair Odds5
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob78.1%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-15.1%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBFC<G<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<P<<<<<<Y<<<<<<<<<024CBFB484DFB2609102M2609109<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 19 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
0
FC Gandzasar
0
Draws
6
Pyunik Yereven
6
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
17%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Pyunik Yereven won 6 of 6 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
FC Gandzasar
Metric
Pyunik Yereven
1.4
Goals For / Game
0.9
2.1
Goals Against / Game
0.7
10%
Clean Sheets
50%
3-2-5
W — D — L
5-2-3
Win Rate
30%
50%
2.6
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
F0
0-0 7.8%
0-1 11.7%
0-2 8.8%
0-3 4.4%
0-4 1.7%
0-5 0.5%
F1
1-0 8.2%
1-1 12.3%
1-2 9.2%
1-3 4.6%
1-4 1.7%
1-5 0.5%
F2
2-0 4.3%
2-1 6.5%
2-2 4.8%
2-3 2.4%
2-4 0.9%
2-5 0.3%
F3
3-0 1.5%
3-1 2.3%
3-2 1.7%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
F4
4-0 0.4%
4-1 0.6%
4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
F5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(11.7%) 1-2(9.2%) 0-2(8.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing F=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
FC Gandzasar Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Pyunik Yereven Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
FC Gandzasar
Overall
3.6
Scoring
4.7
Defence
3.0
Pyunik Yereven
Overall
5.6
Scoring
3.0
Defence
7.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Home Win & BTTS No 17%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 11%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Away Win & BTTS No 28%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 14%
Home Win & Under 2.5 17%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 23%
Away Win & Under 2.5 28%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
29.10.25CUP
Pyunik Yerevan3
FC Gandzasar0
25.10.25PL
Pyunik Yerevan2
FC Gandzasar0
27.09.25PL
FC Gandzasar0
Pyunik Yerevan1
12.04.25PL
FC Gandzasar1
Pyunik Yerevan3
02.12.24PL
Pyunik Yerevan1
FC Gandzasar0
07.11.24PL
FC Gandzasar0
Pyunik Yerevan5
Recent Form
FC Gandzasar
09.05.26PL
Alashkert3
FC Gandzasar1
L
06.05.26PL
FC Gandzasar1
Noah4
L
02.05.26PL
FC Gandzasar0
Van1
L
26.04.26PL
FC Gandzasar3
Shirak Gyumri2
W
19.04.26PL
BKMA1
FC Gandzasar1
D
10.04.26PL
FC Gandzasar0
Noah3
L
05.04.26PL
Urartu4
FC Gandzasar2
L
21.03.26PL
FC Gandzasar2
Ararat Yerevan1
W
14.03.26PL
Ararat Yerevan0
FC Gandzasar2
W
06.03.26PL
FC Gandzasar2
Urartu2
D
Pyunik Yereven
09.05.26PL
Pyunik Yerevan2
BKMA0
W
06.05.26PL
Ararat-Armenia1
Pyunik Yerevan0
L
03.05.26PL
Noah0
Pyunik Yerevan0
D
23.04.26PL
Pyunik Yerevan2
Urartu1
W
18.04.26PL
Ararat Yerevan1
Pyunik Yerevan0
L
11.04.26PL
Pyunik Yerevan0
Ararat-Armenia2
L
06.04.26PL
Shirak Gyumri0
Pyunik Yerevan1
W
01.04.26CUP
Noah2
Pyunik Yerevan2
D
21.03.26PL
Alashkert0
Pyunik Yerevan1
W
15.03.26PL
Pyunik Yerevan1
Alashkert0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Monday, 18th May 2026, FC Gandzasar host Pyunik Yereven in Armenia Premier League. Our analysis desk recommends Pyunik Yereven to win as the standout selection.

FC Gandzasar arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Pyunik Yereven are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 2D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour FC Gandzasar, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Pyunik Yereven's 6, with 0 draws from 6 encounters. Both teams have scored in 17% of those meetings.

Our verdict: pyunik yereven to win at odds of 1.28 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Armenia Premier League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 2, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.28. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 19 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for FC Gandzasar vs Pyunik Yereven?
Our selection is 2 — Pyunik Yereven to win, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is FC Gandzasar's current form?
FC Gandzasar have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Pyunik Yereven been performing recently?
Pyunik Yereven have recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
FC Gandzasar lead with 0 wins versus Pyunik Yereven's 6, with 0 draws across 6 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 17%.
⚠️
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