Fixture Case File · Ref V
B

BKMA

Home Side
L D W D D
1W 4D 5L → Holding Steady
VS
A
Ararat Armenia
Away Side
L W W D W
5W 2D 3L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
58%
Sunday, 17th May 2026 Case Verdict
2
Filing on Ararat Armenia to win
BKMA 30%
Draw 20%
Ararat Armenia 50%
H Fair Odds3.33
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob77.5%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-19.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBBKMA<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<A<<<<<<A<<<<<<<<<B21F8DA6C4DFB2609102M2609109<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 17 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
2 — Ararat Armenia to win
1.29
Under 2.5 Goals70% BTTS — No70% Ararat Armenia Clean Sheet60%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
BKMA vs Ararat Armenia Competition: Armenia Premier League Date: Sunday, 17th May 2026 Pick: 2 (Ararat Armenia to win) Odds: 1.29 Confidence: 58% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: BTTS — No (70%) Also: Ararat Armenia Clean Sheet (60%) Ledger Ref: B21F8DA6C
Head to Head
Record
0
BKMA
2
Draws
8
Ararat Armenia
10
Meetings
3.9
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Ararat Armenia won 8 of 10 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
BKMA
Metric
Ararat Armenia
0.7
Goals For / Game
1.2
1.6
Goals Against / Game
1
10%
Clean Sheets
60%
1-4-5
W — D — L
5-2-3
Win Rate
10%
50%
2.3
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
30%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
B0
0-0 10.5%
0-1 14.8%
0-2 10.3%
0-3 4.8%
0-4 1.7%
0-5 0.5%
B1
1-0 9.0%
1-1 12.5%
1-2 8.8%
1-3 4.1%
1-4 1.4%
1-5 0.4%
B2
2-0 3.8%
2-1 5.3%
2-2 3.7%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.2%
B3
3-0 1.1%
3-1 1.5%
3-2 1.1%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
B4
4-0 0.2%
4-1 0.3%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
B5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(14.8%) 0-2(10.3%) 1-2(8.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing B=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
BKMA Win
30%
3.33
Draw
20%
5
Ararat Armenia Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
BKMA
Overall
2.2
Scoring
2.3
Defence
4.7
Ararat Armenia
Overall
5.6
Scoring
4.0
Defence
6.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 3%
Home Win & BTTS No 8%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 23%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Away Win & BTTS No 39%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 3%
Home Win & Under 2.5 8%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 23%
Away Win & Over 2.5 17%
Away Win & Under 2.5 39%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
25.10.25PL
Ararat-Armenia2
BKMA1
29.09.25PL
BKMA2
Ararat-Armenia2
18.05.25PL
Ararat-Armenia4
BKMA0
02.11.24PL
BKMA2
Ararat-Armenia4
29.09.24PL
Ararat-Armenia2
BKMA0
07.05.24PL
Ararat-Armenia4
BKMA1
07.03.24PL
BKMA0
Ararat-Armenia1
02.11.23PL
Ararat-Armenia4
BKMA1
01.09.23PL
BKMA1
Ararat-Armenia1
05.06.23PL
BKMA2
Ararat-Armenia5
Recent Form
BKMA
09.05.26PL
Pyunik Yerevan2
BKMA0
L
02.05.26PL
BKMA2
Alashkert2
D
23.04.26PL
Van1
BKMA2
W
19.04.26PL
BKMA1
FC Gandzasar1
D
16.04.26PL
Shirak Gyumri1
BKMA1
D
12.04.26PL
BKMA0
Shirak Gyumri0
D
05.04.26PL
Noah2
BKMA0
L
20.03.26PL
BKMA0
Urartu1
L
15.03.26PL
Urartu4
BKMA1
L
08.03.26PL
BKMA0
Noah2
L
Ararat Armenia
10.05.26PL
Ararat-Armenia0
Noah4
L
06.05.26PL
Ararat-Armenia1
Pyunik Yerevan0
W
03.05.26PL
Urartu0
Ararat-Armenia2
W
29.04.26CUP
Noah0
Ararat-Armenia0
D
25.04.26PL
Ararat-Armenia4
Ararat Yerevan0
W
20.04.26PL
Shirak Gyumri0
Ararat-Armenia4
W
16.04.26CUP
Ararat-Armenia0
Noah1
L
11.04.26PL
Pyunik Yerevan0
Ararat-Armenia2
W
06.04.26PL
Ararat-Armenia1
Alashkert1
D
02.04.26CUP
Shirak Gyumri0
Ararat-Armenia2
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Sunday, 17th May 2026, BKMA host Ararat Armenia in Armenia Premier League. Our analysis desk recommends Ararat Armenia to win as the standout selection.

BKMA arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Ararat Armenia are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 2D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour BKMA, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Ararat Armenia's 8, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: ararat armenia to win at odds of 1.29 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Armenia Premier League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 2, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.29. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 17 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for BKMA vs Ararat Armenia?
Our selection is 2 — Ararat Armenia to win, priced at approximately 1.29. Tip confidence rating: 58%.
What is BKMA's current form?
BKMA have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Ararat Armenia been performing recently?
Ararat Armenia have recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
BKMA lead with 0 wins versus Ararat Armenia's 8, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
⚠️
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