WON Case WON Galatasaray 4-2 Antalyaspor
Fixture Case File · Ref V
G

Galatasaray

Home Side
L W L W D
5W 1D 4L ▲ Trending Up
VS
4-2
A
Antalyaspor
Away Side
D L L L W
1W 3D 6L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
60%
Saturday, 9th May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Galatasaray to win
Galatasaray 50%
Draw 30%
Antalyaspor 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob89.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-29.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBG<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<A<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<CBE3F0CF54DFB2609102M2609109<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 9 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Galatasaray to win
1.12
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Galatasaray vs Antalyaspor Competition: Turkey Super Lig Date: Saturday, 9th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Galatasaray to win) Odds: 1.12 Confidence: 60% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Ledger Ref: CBE3F0CF5
Head to Head
Record
9
Galatasaray
1
Draws
0
Antalyaspor
10
Meetings
2.6
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Galatasaray won 9 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Galatasaray
Metric
Antalyaspor
1.5
Goals For / Game
0.8
1.5
Goals Against / Game
1.7
30%
Clean Sheets
30%
5-1-4
W — D — L
1-3-6
Win Rate
50%
10%
2.8
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
G0
0-0 6.4%
0-1 7.4%
0-2 4.2%
0-3 1.6%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
G1
1-0 10.2%
1-1 11.8%
1-2 6.8%
1-3 2.6%
1-4 0.8%
1-5 0.2%
G2
2-0 8.2%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 5.4%
2-3 2.1%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
G3
3-0 4.4%
3-1 5.0%
3-2 2.9%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
G4
4-0 1.8%
4-1 2.0%
4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
G5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(10.2%) 2-1(9.4%) 2-0(8.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing G=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Galatasaray Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Antalyaspor Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Galatasaray
Overall
5.3
Scoring
5.0
Defence
5.0
Antalyaspor
Overall
1.9
Scoring
2.7
Defence
4.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Home Win & BTTS No 38%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 5%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 28%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 7%
Away Win & Under 2.5 5%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
13.12.25SL
Antalyaspor1
Galatasaray4
14.03.25SL
Galatasaray4
Antalyaspor0
19.10.24SL
Antalyaspor0
Galatasaray3
26.02.24SL
Galatasaray2
Antalyaspor1
07.10.23SL
Antalyaspor0
Galatasaray2
21.01.23SL
Galatasaray2
Antalyaspor1
07.08.22SL
Antalyaspor0
Galatasaray1
20.05.22SL
Antalyaspor1
Galatasaray1
25.12.21SL
Galatasaray2
Antalyaspor0
24.04.21SL
Antalyaspor0
Galatasaray1
Recent Form
Galatasaray
02.05.26SL
Samsunspor4
Galatasaray1
L
26.04.26SL
Galatasaray3
Fenerbahce0
W
22.04.26CUP
Galatasaray0
Genclerbirligi2
L
18.04.26SL
Genclerbirligi1
Galatasaray2
W
12.04.26SL
Galatasaray1
Kocaelispor1
D
08.04.26SL
Goztepe1
Galatasaray3
W
04.04.26SL
Trabzonspor2
Galatasaray1
L
18.03.26CL
Liverpool4
Galatasaray0
L
14.03.26SL
Galatasaray3
Basaksehir0
W
10.03.26CL
Galatasaray1
Liverpool0
W
Antalyaspor
03.05.26SL
Antalyaspor0
Alanyaspor0
D
25.04.26SL
Goztepe2
Antalyaspor0
L
17.04.26SL
Antalyaspor0
Konyaspor2
L
10.04.26SL
Besiktas4
Antalyaspor2
L
05.04.26SL
Antalyaspor3
Eyupspor0
W
18.03.26SL
Basaksehir0
Antalyaspor0
D
13.03.26SL
Antalyaspor1
Gaziantep4
L
08.03.26SL
Rizespor1
Antalyaspor0
L
05.03.26CUP
Antalyaspor0
Samsunspor2
L
01.03.26SL
Antalyaspor2
Fenerbahce2
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Saturday, 9th May 2026, Galatasaray host Antalyaspor in Turkey Super Lig. Our analysis desk recommends Galatasaray to win as the standout selection.

Galatasaray arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Antalyaspor are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 3D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Galatasaray, who lead the head-to-head with 9 wins to Antalyaspor's 0, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: galatasaray to win at odds of 1.12 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Turkey Super Lig game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.12. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 9 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Galatasaray vs Antalyaspor?
Our selection is 1 — Galatasaray to win, priced at approximately 1.12. Tip confidence rating: 60%.
What is Galatasaray's current form?
Galatasaray have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Antalyaspor been performing recently?
Antalyaspor have recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Galatasaray lead with 9 wins versus Antalyaspor's 0, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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