WON Case WON BEI NFA 5-2 Siauliai 2
Fixture Case File · Ref V
B

BEI NFA

Home Side
W L W D W
4W 2D 4L → Holding Steady
VS
5-2
S
Siauliai 2
Away Side
W L D L L
3W 3D 4L ▲ Trending Up
CAUTION
34%
Friday, 8th May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on BEI NFA to win
BEI NFA 50%
Draw 30%
Siauliai 2 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob76.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-42.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBBEI<NFA<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<S<<<<<<<<2<<<<<<<C4C9C5F684DFB2609102M2609109<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 8 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — BEI NFA to win
1.31
Under 2.5 Goals65% BTTS — No75%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
BEI NFA vs Siauliai 2 Competition: Lithuania 1 Lyga Date: Friday, 8th May 2026 Pick: 1 (BEI NFA to win) Odds: 1.31 Confidence: 34% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: BTTS — No (75%) Ledger Ref: C4C9C5F68
Head to Head
Record
0
BEI NFA
7
Draws
1
Siauliai 2
8
Meetings
3.3
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
63%
Over 2.5
Against Filing BEI NFA won 0 of the last 8 meetings (7 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
BEI NFA
Metric
Siauliai 2
0
Goals For / Game
1.8
0
Goals Against / Game
1.7
0%
Clean Sheets
30%
4-2-4
W — D — L
3-3-4
Win Rate
40%
30%
1.8
Avg Goals
40%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
25%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
B0
0-0 17.4%
0-1 15.6%
0-2 7.0%
0-3 2.1%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
B1
1-0 14.8%
1-1 13.3%
1-2 6.0%
1-3 1.8%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
B2
2-0 6.3%
2-1 5.7%
2-2 2.5%
2-3 0.8%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
B3
3-0 1.8%
3-1 1.6%
3-2 0.7%
3-3 0.2%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
B4
4-0 0.4%
4-1 0.3%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
B5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(14.8%) 2-0(6.3%) 2-1(5.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing B=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
BEI NFA Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Siauliai 2 Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
BEI NFA
Overall
4.6
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
Siauliai 2
Overall
3.9
Scoring
6.0
Defence
4.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Home Win & BTTS No 32%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 20%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Away Win & BTTS No 24%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 15%
Home Win & Under 2.5 27%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 17%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 21%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
31.10.25IL
BE1 NFA3
Siauliai 20
22.06.25IL
Siauliai 20
BE1 NFA2
26.07.24IL
BE1 NFA3
Siauliai 22
13.04.24IL
Siauliai 21
BE1 NFA5
05.08.23IL
BE1 NFA2
Siauliai 21
20.03.23IL
Siauliai 22
BE1 NFA1
07.09.22IL
BE1 NFA2
Siauliai 20
09.04.22IL
Siauliai 20
BE1 NFA2
Recent Form
BEI NFA
02.05.26IL
Kauno Zalgiris 20
BE1 NFA1
W
28.04.26CUP
Klaipedos FM1
BE1 NFA0
L
24.04.26IL
BE1 NFA2
Ekranas1
W
18.04.26IL
Garliava2
BE1 NFA2
D
05.04.26IL
Hegelmann Litauen 20
BE1 NFA3
W
22.03.26IL
BE1 NFA2
FK Minija3
L
18.03.26IL
Jonava2
BE1 NFA2
D
13.03.26IL
BE1 NFA3
BFA Vilnius1
W
15.02.26CF
Transinvest4
BE1 NFA0
L
31.01.26CF
Suduva1
BE1 NFA0
L
Siauliai 2
03.05.26IL
Siauliai 22
Hegelmann Litauen 20
W
25.04.26IL
FK Minija3
Siauliai 21
L
19.04.26IL
Siauliai 22
Jonava2
D
03.04.26IL
Zalgiris 24
Siauliai 20
L
21.03.26IL
Siauliai 21
Atmosfera4
L
17.03.26IL
BFA Vilnius1
Siauliai 20
L
13.03.26IL
Siauliai 20
Neptunas0
D
23.11.25IL
Siauliai 25
Sveikata0
W
20.11.25IL
Sveikata2
Siauliai 22
D
09.11.25IL
Babrungas1
Siauliai 25
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Friday, 8th May 2026, BEI NFA host Siauliai 2 in Lithuania 1 Lyga. Our analysis desk recommends BEI NFA to win as the standout selection.

BEI NFA arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Siauliai 2 are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 3D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour BEI NFA, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Siauliai 2's 1, with 7 draws from 8 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: bei nfa to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Lithuania 1 Lyga game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.31. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 8 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for BEI NFA vs Siauliai 2?
Our selection is 1 — BEI NFA to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 34%.
What is BEI NFA's current form?
BEI NFA have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Siauliai 2 been performing recently?
Siauliai 2 have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
BEI NFA lead with 0 wins versus Siauliai 2's 1, with 7 draws across 8 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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