WON Case WON Roma W 2-0 Ternana W
Fixture Case File · Ref V
R

Roma W

Home Side
W W W W D
6W 4D 0L → Holding Steady
VS
2-0
T
Ternana W
Away Side
D L D D D
1W 4D 5L ▼ Trending Down
CASE VERIFIED
67%
Saturday, 2nd May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Roma W to win
Roma W 60%
Draw 20%
Ternana W 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob77.5%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-10.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBR<<<<W<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<T<<<<<<<W<<<<<<<<438E547594DFB2608252M2608259<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 3 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
2
Roma W
0
Draws
0
Ternana W
2
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Roma W won 2 of the last 2 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Roma W
Metric
Ternana W
1.8
Goals For / Game
0.9
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.9
30%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-4-0
W — D — L
1-4-5
Win Rate
60%
10%
2.9
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
R0
0-0 5.5%
0-1 5.8%
0-2 3.0%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
R1
1-0 10.2%
1-1 10.7%
1-2 5.6%
1-3 2.0%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
R2
2-0 9.4%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.2%
2-3 1.8%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
R3
3-0 5.8%
3-1 6.1%
3-2 3.2%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
R4
4-0 2.7%
4-1 2.8%
4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
R5
5-0 1.0%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(10.2%) 2-1(9.9%) 2-0(9.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing R=Home goals ↓   T=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Roma W Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Ternana W Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Roma W
Overall
7.2
Scoring
6.0
Defence
6.0
Ternana W
Overall
2.2
Scoring
3.0
Defence
3.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 33%
Home Win & BTTS No 22%
Draw & BTTS Yes 22%
Draw & BTTS No 14%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 5%
Away Win & BTTS No 4%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 30%
Home Win & Under 2.5 25%
Draw & Over 2.5 20%
Draw & Under 2.5 16%
Away Win & Over 2.5 5%
Away Win & Under 2.5 4%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
13.12.25SA
Ternana W0
AS Roma2
22.08.25CUP
Ternana W2
AS Roma4
Recent Form
Roma W
25.04.26SA
Juventus W0
AS Roma W1
W
03.04.26SA
AS Roma W4
Como W3
W
29.03.26COP
Inter W1
AS Roma W2
W
21.03.26SA
Lazio W1
AS Roma W2
W
15.03.26SA
AS Roma W1
Fiorentina W1
D
12.03.26COP
AS Roma W1
Inter W1
D
22.02.26SA
Inter W0
AS Roma W1
W
15.02.26SA
AS Roma W2
Napoli W2
D
08.02.26SA
AS Roma W1
AC Milan W0
W
01.02.26SA
Parma W3
AS Roma W3
D
Ternana W
26.04.26SA
Ternana W2
Fiorentina W2
D
04.04.26SA
Parma W2
Ternana W0
L
22.03.26SA
Ternana W1
Sassuolo W1
D
15.03.26SA
Como W0
Ternana W0
D
22.02.26SA
Ternana W2
Juventus W2
D
14.02.26SA
Ternana W3
Genoa W1
W
08.02.26SA
Napoli W3
Ternana W1
L
01.02.26SA
Ternana W0
Inter W1
L
28.01.26COP
Inter W4
Ternana W0
L
25.01.26SA
AC Milan W3
Ternana W0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Saturday, 2nd May 2026, Roma W host Ternana W in Serie A Women. Our analysis desk recommends Roma W to win as the standout selection.

Roma W arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Ternana W are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 4D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Roma W, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Ternana W's 0, with 0 draws from 2 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: roma w to win at odds of 1.29 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Serie A Women game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.29. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 3 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Roma W vs Ternana W?
Our selection is 1 — Roma W to win, priced at approximately 1.29. Tip confidence rating: 67%.
What is Roma W's current form?
Roma W have won 6, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Ternana W been performing recently?
Ternana W have recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Roma W lead with 2 wins versus Ternana W's 0, with 0 draws across 2 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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