WON Case WON Kauno Zalgiris 1-2 Transinvest
Fixture Case File · Ref V
K

Kauno Zalgiris

Home Side
W W D W W
9W 1D 0L → Holding Steady
VS
1-2
T
Transinvest
Away Side
L L D W W
4W 2D 4L ▼ Trending Down
CASE VERIFIED
68%
Saturday, 18th April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Kauno Zalgiris to win
Kauno Zalgiris 50%
Draw 30%
Transinvest 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob73%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBK<<<<<Z<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<T<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<7CEB626874DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 18 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Kauno Zalgiris to win
1.37
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals80% Kauno Zalgiris Clean Sheet60%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Kauno Zalgiris vs Transinvest Competition: Lithuania TopLyga Date: Saturday, 18th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Kauno Zalgiris to win) Odds: 1.37 Confidence: 68% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Also: Kauno Zalgiris Clean Sheet (60%) Ledger Ref: 7CEB62687
Head to Head
Record
3
Kauno Zalgiris
0
Draws
1
Transinvest
4
Meetings
3.3
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Kauno Zalgiris won 3 of the last 4 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Kauno Zalgiris
Metric
Transinvest
2.6
Goals For / Game
1.5
0.4
Goals Against / Game
1.4
60%
Clean Sheets
40%
9-1-0
W — D — L
4-2-4
Win Rate
90%
40%
3
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
K0
0-0 5.2%
0-1 5.0%
0-2 2.4%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
K1
1-0 10.5%
1-1 9.9%
1-2 4.7%
1-3 1.5%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
K2
2-0 10.5%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 4.7%
2-3 1.5%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
K3
3-0 7.0%
3-1 6.6%
3-2 3.2%
3-3 1.0%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
K4
4-0 3.5%
4-1 3.3%
4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
K5
5-0 1.4%
5-1 1.3%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(10.5%) 2-0(10.5%) 2-1(9.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing K=Home goals ↓   T=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Kauno Zalgiris Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Transinvest Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Kauno Zalgiris
Overall
9.3
Scoring
8.7
Defence
8.7
Transinvest
Overall
4.6
Scoring
5.0
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 28%
Home Win & BTTS No 34%
Draw & BTTS Yes 5%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Away Win & BTTS No 15%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 43%
Home Win & Under 2.5 19%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 20%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
31.08.24A Lyga
Transinvest0
Kauno Zalgiris3
26.06.24A Lyga
Kauno Zalgiris2
Transinvest0
02.05.24A Lyga
Transinvest3
Kauno Zalgiris2
12.03.24A Lyga
Kauno Zalgiris2
Transinvest1
Recent Form
Kauno Zalgiris
11.04.26A Lyga
Kauno Zalgiris5
Hegelmann0
W
05.04.26A Lyga
FK Zalgiris0
Kauno Zalgiris3
W
21.03.26A Lyga
Kauno Zalgiris1
FK Suduva1
D
15.03.26A Lyga
FA Siauliai0
Kauno Zalgiris5
W
10.03.26A Lyga
Kauno Zalgiris4
FK Panevezys0
W
07.03.26A Lyga
Dziugas Telsiai1
Kauno Zalgiris2
W
28.02.26A Lyga
Kauno Zalgiris1
Banga0
W
23.02.26A Lyga
Riteriai1
Kauno Zalgiris2
W
16.02.26Supercup
Kauno Zalgiris1
FK Panevezys0
W
06.02.26Club Friendly
Kauno Zalgiris2
Zimbru Chisinau1
W
Transinvest
12.04.26A Lyga
Transinvest1
FK Panevezys2
L
04.04.26A Lyga
Hegelmann3
Transinvest1
L
22.03.26A Lyga
Transinvest0
Dziugas Telsiai0
D
16.03.26A Lyga
Zalgiris Vilnius1
Transinvest2
W
11.03.26A Lyga
Transinvest1
Banga0
W
07.03.26A Lyga
Suduva2
Transinvest0
L
01.03.26A Lyga
Transinvest3
Riteriai0
W
22.02.26A Lyga
Transinvest2
Siauliai FA2
D
15.02.26Club Friendly
Transinvest4
BE1 NFA0
W
11.02.26Club Friendly
FK Panevezys4
Transinvest1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Saturday, 18th April 2026, Kauno Zalgiris host Transinvest in Lithuania TopLyga. Our analysis desk recommends Kauno Zalgiris to win as the standout selection.

Kauno Zalgiris arrive in strong form, having recorded 9 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Transinvest are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 2D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Kauno Zalgiris, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Transinvest's 1, with 0 draws from 4 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: kauno zalgiris to win at odds of 1.37 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Lithuania TopLyga game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.37. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 18 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Kauno Zalgiris vs Transinvest?
Our selection is 1 — Kauno Zalgiris to win, priced at approximately 1.37. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Kauno Zalgiris's current form?
Kauno Zalgiris have won 9, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Transinvest been performing recently?
Transinvest have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Kauno Zalgiris lead with 3 wins versus Transinvest's 1, with 0 draws across 4 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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