WON Case WON Shirak Gyumri 0-1 Pyunik Yerevan
Fixture Case File · Ref V
S

Shirak Gyumri

Home Side
L L L L L
1W 1D 8L ▲ Trending Up
VS
0-1
P
Pyunik Yerevan
Away Side
D W W W L
4W 3D 3L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
50%
Monday, 6th April 2026 Case Verdict
2
Filing on Pyunik Yerevan to win
Shirak Gyumri 20%
Draw 30%
Pyunik Yerevan 50%
H Fair Odds5
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob78.1%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-28.1%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBS<<<<<<G<<<<<<<<<<<<<<P<<<<<<Y<<<<<<<<<CDB767FB14DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 6 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
2 — Pyunik Yerevan to win
1.28
BTTS — No65%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Shirak Gyumri vs Pyunik Yerevan Competition: Armenia Premier League Date: Monday, 6th April 2026 Pick: 2 (Pyunik Yerevan to win) Odds: 1.28 Confidence: 50% Also: BTTS — No (65%) Ledger Ref: CDB767FB1
Head to Head
Record
1
Shirak Gyumri
3
Draws
6
Pyunik Yerevan
10
Meetings
2.3
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Pyunik Yerevan won 6 of 10 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Shirak Gyumri
Metric
Pyunik Yerevan
0.4
Goals For / Game
1.2
1.9
Goals Against / Game
1.2
20%
Clean Sheets
30%
1-1-8
W — D — L
4-3-3
Win Rate
10%
40%
2.4
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
S0
0-0 9.5%
0-1 14.8%
0-2 11.5%
0-3 5.9%
0-4 2.3%
0-5 0.7%
S1
1-0 7.6%
1-1 11.8%
1-2 9.2%
1-3 4.7%
1-4 1.8%
1-5 0.6%
S2
2-0 3.1%
2-1 4.7%
2-2 3.7%
2-3 1.9%
2-4 0.7%
2-5 0.2%
S3
3-0 0.8%
3-1 1.3%
3-2 1.0%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
S4
4-0 0.2%
4-1 0.3%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(14.8%) 0-2(11.5%) 1-2(9.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing S=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Shirak Gyumri Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Pyunik Yerevan Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Shirak Gyumri
Overall
1.3
Scoring
1.3
Defence
3.7
Pyunik Yerevan
Overall
4.9
Scoring
4.0
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 5%
Home Win & BTTS No 9%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 19%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Away Win & BTTS No 37%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 6%
Home Win & Under 2.5 8%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 16%
Away Win & Over 2.5 26%
Away Win & Under 2.5 31%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
09.03.26
Premier League: FC Pyunik3
Shirak SC0
11.08.25
Premier League: Shirak SC0
FC Pyunik0
14.03.25
Premier League: FC Pyunik6
Shirak SC1
28.11.24
Premier League: Shirak SC1
FC Pyunik0
01.09.24
Premier League: FC Pyunik2
Shirak SC0
25.05.24
Premier League: Shirak SC0
FC Pyunik1
04.04.24
Premier League: FC Pyunik1
Shirak SC1
28.11.23
Premier League: Shirak SC1
FC Pyunik1
25.09.23
Premier League: FC Pyunik1
Shirak SC0
02.05.23
Premier League: Shirak SC0
FC Pyunik4
Recent Form
Shirak Gyumri
02.04.26
Cup: Shirak SC0
Ararat-Armenia2
L
22.03.26
PL: FC Noah3
Shirak SC0
L
16.03.26
PL: Shirak SC0
FC Noah2
L
09.03.26
PL: FC Pyunik3
Shirak SC0
L
04.03.26
Cup: Ararat-Armenia1
Shirak SC0
L
31.01.26
Friendly: Ararat Yerevan1
Shirak SC0
L
01.12.25
PL: Ararat-Armenia4
Shirak SC1
L
22.11.25
PL: Shirak SC1
FC Gandzasar0
W
09.11.25
PL: Ararat Yerevan0
Shirak SC0
D
02.11.25
PL: Shirak SC2
FC Van3
L
Pyunik Yerevan
01.04.26
Cup: FC Noah2
FC Pyunik2
D
21.03.26
PL: Alashkert0
FC Pyunik1
W
15.03.26
PL: FC Pyunik1
Alashkert0
W
09.03.26
PL: FC Pyunik3
Shirak SC0
W
05.03.26
Cup: FC Pyunik1
FC Noah2
L
18.02.26
Friendly: FC Pyunik2
Rodina Moscow1
W
14.02.26
Friendly: Lokomotiv Moscow1
FC Pyunik1
D
11.02.26
Friendly: FC Pyunik0
Dinamo Samarkand3
L
11.02.26
Friendly: FC Pyunik1
Qingdao West Coast1
D
03.02.26
Friendly: Spartak Moscow2
FC Pyunik0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Monday, 6th April 2026, Shirak Gyumri host Pyunik Yerevan in Armenia Premier League. Our analysis desk recommends Pyunik Yerevan to win as the standout selection.

Shirak Gyumri arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Pyunik Yerevan are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 3D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Shirak Gyumri, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Pyunik Yerevan's 6, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: pyunik yerevan to win at odds of 1.28 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Armenia Premier League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 2, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.28. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 6 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Shirak Gyumri vs Pyunik Yerevan?
Our selection is 2 — Pyunik Yerevan to win, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is Shirak Gyumri's current form?
Shirak Gyumri have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches.
How has Pyunik Yerevan been performing recently?
Pyunik Yerevan have recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Shirak Gyumri lead with 1 wins versus Pyunik Yerevan's 6, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
⚠️
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