WON Case WON Bahia W 3-1 America Mineiro W
Fixture Case File · Ref V
B

Bahia W

Home Side
W W W L L
7W 0D 3L ▲ Trending Up
VS
3-1
A
America Mineiro W
Away Side
D L L L L
1W 3D 6L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
53%
Wednesday, 1st April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Bahia W to win
Bahia W 60%
Draw 20%
America Mineiro W 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob80.6%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-27.6%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBB<<<<<W<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<A<<<<<<<M<<<<<<<W0E9DCEF104DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 1 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Bahia W to win
1.24
Under 2.5 Goals70% BTTS — No75%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Bahia W vs America Mineiro W Competition: Brasileiro Women Date: Wednesday, 1st April 2026 Pick: 1 (Bahia W to win) Odds: 1.24 Confidence: 53% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: BTTS — No (75%) Ledger Ref: 0E9DCEF10
Head to Head
Record
0
Bahia W
1
Draws
0
America Mineiro W
1
Meetings
2
Avg Goals
100%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Bahia W won 0 of the last 1 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Bahia W
Metric
America Mineiro W
3.4
Goals For / Game
0
1.2
Goals Against / Game
0
30%
Clean Sheets
0%
7-0-3
W — D — L
1-3-6
Win Rate
70%
10%
2.3
Avg Goals
45%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
25%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
B0
0-0 10.0%
0-1 6.0%
0-2 1.8%
0-3 0.4%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
B1
1-0 17.0%
1-1 10.2%
1-2 3.1%
1-3 0.6%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
B2
2-0 14.5%
2-1 8.7%
2-2 2.6%
2-3 0.5%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
B3
3-0 8.2%
3-1 4.9%
3-2 1.5%
3-3 0.3%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
B4
4-0 3.5%
4-1 2.1%
4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
B5
5-0 1.2%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(17.0%) 2-0(14.5%) 2-1(8.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing B=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Bahia W Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
America Mineiro W Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Bahia W
Overall
7.0
Scoring
10.0
Defence
6.0
America Mineiro W
Overall
1.9
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Home Win & BTTS No 56%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 3%
Away Win & BTTS No 8%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 22%
Home Win & Under 2.5 52%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 3%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
01.04.25
BA1: América-MG W1
Bahia1
Recent Form
Bahia W
28.03.26
BA1: RB Bragantino W1
Bahia W2
W
21.03.26
BA1: Bahia W3
Santos W1
W
17.03.26
BA1: Bahia W3
Vitória W2
W
24.02.26
BA1: São Paulo W2
Bahia W1
L
14.02.26
BA1: Bahia W0
Cruzeiro W2
L
08.11.25
BAI: Bahia W2
Vitória W0
W
04.11.25
COP: Ferroviária W2
Bahia W0
L
31.10.25
BAI: Vitória W0
Bahia W1
W
25.10.25
BAI: Bahia W14
Lusaca W2
W
18.10.25
BAI: Lusaca W0
Bahia W8
W
America Mineiro W
28.03.26
BA1: América-MG W1
Mixto W1
D
24.03.26
BA1: Corinthians W4
América-MG W0
L
14.03.26
BA1: América-MG W0
Juventude W1
L
21.02.26
BA1: América-MG W0
Internacional W2
L
14.02.26
BA1: Palmeiras W4
América-MG W0
L
22.11.25
MIN: Cruzeiro W2
América-MG W2
D
15.11.25
MIN: América-MG W0
Cruzeiro W4
L
08.11.25
MIN: América-MG W4
Atlético-MG W0
W
01.11.25
MIN: Atlético-MG W4
América-MG W0
L
18.10.25
MIN: América-MG W2
Cruzeiro W2
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Wednesday, 1st April 2026, Bahia W host America Mineiro W in Brasileiro Women. Our analysis desk recommends Bahia W to win as the standout selection.

Bahia W arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

America Mineiro W are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 3D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Bahia W, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to America Mineiro W's 0, with 1 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: bahia w to win at odds of 1.24 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Brasileiro Women game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.24. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 1 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Bahia W vs America Mineiro W?
Our selection is 1 — Bahia W to win, priced at approximately 1.24. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is Bahia W's current form?
Bahia W have won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has America Mineiro W been performing recently?
America Mineiro W have recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Bahia W lead with 0 wins versus America Mineiro W's 0, with 1 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
⚠️
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