WON Case WON Bayern Munich W 2-1 Man United W
Fixture Case File · Ref V
B

Bayern Munich W

Home Side
W W W W W
10W 0D 0L → Holding Steady
VS
2-1
M
Man United W
Away Side
L L W D L
5W 1D 4L ▲ Trending Up
CASE VERIFIED
68%
Wednesday, 1st April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Bayern Munich W to win
Bayern Munich W 50%
Draw 30%
Man United W 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob71.4%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-3.4%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBB<<<<<<M<<<<<<W<<<<<<<M<<<U<<<<<<W<<<<<412A6C5FE4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 1 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Bayern Munich W to win
1.40
Over 2.5 Goals75% Over 1.5 Goals95% BTTS — No65% Bayern Munich W Clean Sheet70%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Bayern Munich W vs Man United W Competition: UCL Women Date: Wednesday, 1st April 2026 Pick: 1 (Bayern Munich W to win) Odds: 1.40 Confidence: 68% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (75%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%) Also: BTTS — No (65%) Also: Bayern Munich W Clean Sheet (70%) Ledger Ref: 412A6C5FE
Head to Head
Record
2
Bayern Munich W
0
Draws
0
Man United W
2
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Bayern Munich W won 2 of the last 2 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Bayern Munich W
Metric
Man United W
3.6
Goals For / Game
1.4
0.4
Goals Against / Game
1.2
70%
Clean Sheets
40%
10-0-0
W — D — L
5-1-4
Win Rate
100%
50%
3.3
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
B0
0-0 3.7%
0-1 3.3%
0-2 1.5%
0-3 0.5%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
B1
1-0 8.9%
1-1 8.0%
1-2 3.6%
1-3 1.1%
1-4 0.2%
1-5 0.0%
B2
2-0 10.6%
2-1 9.6%
2-2 4.3%
2-3 1.3%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
B3
3-0 8.5%
3-1 7.7%
3-2 3.4%
3-3 1.0%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
B4
4-0 5.1%
4-1 4.6%
4-2 2.1%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
B5
5-0 2.5%
5-1 2.2%
5-2 1.0%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-0(10.6%) 2-1(9.6%) 1-0(8.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing B=Home goals ↓   M=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Bayern Munich W Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Man United W Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Bayern Munich W
Overall
10.0
Scoring
10.0
Defence
8.7
Man United W
Overall
5.3
Scoring
4.7
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Home Win & BTTS No 42%
Draw & BTTS Yes 1%
Draw & BTTS No 2%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 21%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 49%
Home Win & Under 2.5 16%
Draw & Over 2.5 2%
Draw & Under 2.5 1%
Away Win & Over 2.5 24%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
25.03.26
UWCL: Manchester Utd W2
Bayern Munich3
19.08.22
CF: Manchester Utd W0
Bayern Munich3
Recent Form
Bayern Munich W
28.03.26
BUN: Bayern Munich W2
1. FC Nürnberg W0
W
25.03.26
UWCL: Manchester Utd W2
Bayern Munich W3
W
20.03.26
BUN: SGS Essen W0
Bayern Munich W5
W
15.03.26
BUN: Köln W0
Bayern Munich W3
W
11.03.26
POK: Hamburger SV W0
Bayern Munich W3
W
22.02.26
BUN: Bayern Munich W4
Wolfsburg W1
W
11.02.26
BUN: Jena W0
Bayern Munich W6
W
06.02.26
BUN: Freiburg W1
Bayern Munich W4
W
25.01.26
BUN: Bayern Munich W3
RB Leipzig W0
W
22.12.25
BUN: Bayer Leverkusen W0
Bayern Munich W3
W
Man United W
28.03.26
WSL: Manchester United W0
Manchester City W3
L
25.03.26
UWCL: Manchester United W2
Bayern Munich W3
L
21.03.26
WSL: Manchester United W2
Everton W1
W
18.03.26
WSL: West Ham W0
Manchester United W0
D
15.03.26
CUP: Chelsea W2
Manchester United W0
L
22.02.26
FAC: Chelsea W2
Manchester United W (AET)1
L
19.02.26
UWCL: Manchester United W2
Atl. Madrid W0
W
15.02.26
WSL: Manchester United W2
London City Lionesses W1
W
12.02.26
UWCL: Atl. Madrid W0
Manchester United W3
W
07.02.26
WSL: Leicester W0
Manchester United W2
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Wednesday, 1st April 2026, Bayern Munich W host Man United W in UCL Women. Our analysis desk recommends Bayern Munich W to win as the standout selection.

Bayern Munich W arrive in strong form, having recorded 10 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Man United W are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 1D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Bayern Munich W, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Man United W's 0, with 0 draws from 2 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: bayern munich w to win at odds of 1.40 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This UCL Women game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.40. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 1 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Bayern Munich W vs Man United W?
Our selection is 1 — Bayern Munich W to win, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Bayern Munich W's current form?
Bayern Munich W have won 10, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Man United W been performing recently?
Man United W have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Bayern Munich W lead with 2 wins versus Man United W's 0, with 0 draws across 2 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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