WON Case WON Hertha Zehlendorf 0-3 Jena
Fixture Case File · Ref V
H

Hertha Zehlendorf

Home Side
W D L D L
2W 3D 5L ▲ Trending Up
VS
0-3
J
Jena
Away Side
L L W D L
3W 2D 5L → Holding Steady
CASE VERIFIED
80%
Wednesday, 1st April 2026 Case Verdict
Over 2.5
Filing on over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob65.8%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge+14.2%Value detected
Kelly %41.5%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBH<<<<<<Z<<<<<<<<<<<<<<J<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<2378D22CF4DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 1 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.52
Over 1.5 Goals80% BTTS — Yes70%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Hertha Zehlendorf vs Jena Competition: Germany Regionalliga Nordost Date: Wednesday, 1st April 2026 Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals) Odds: 1.52 Confidence: 80% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Also: BTTS — Yes (70%) Ledger Ref: 2378D22CF
Head to Head
Record
0
Hertha Zehlendorf
1
Draws
2
Jena
3
Meetings
5.3
Avg Goals
67%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Over 2.5 in 100% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Hertha Zehlendorf
Metric
Jena
1.2
Goals For / Game
1.3
1.6
Goals Against / Game
2.1
20%
Clean Sheets
10%
2-3-5
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate
20%
30%
3.1
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
J0
J1
J2
J3
J4
J5
H0
0-0 4.5%
0-1 6.5%
0-2 4.7%
0-3 2.3%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.2%
H1
1-0 7.4%
1-1 10.8%
1-2 7.8%
1-3 3.8%
1-4 1.4%
1-5 0.4%
H2
2-0 6.1%
2-1 8.9%
2-2 6.5%
2-3 3.1%
2-4 1.1%
2-5 0.3%
H3
3-0 3.4%
3-1 4.9%
3-2 3.6%
3-3 1.7%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.2%
H4
4-0 1.4%
4-1 2.0%
4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.7%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
H5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(10.8%) 2-1(8.9%) 1-2(7.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing H=Home goals ↓   J=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Hertha Zehlendorf
Overall
2.9
Scoring
4.0
Defence
4.7
Jena
Overall
3.6
Scoring
4.3
Defence
3.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Home Win & BTTS No 8%
Draw & BTTS Yes 23%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 28%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 15%
Home Win & Under 2.5 12%
Draw & Over 2.5 18%
Draw & Under 2.5 15%
Away Win & Over 2.5 22%
Away Win & Under 2.5 18%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
26.08.25
RL: Carl Zeiss Jena4
Hertha Zehlendorf0
12.03.25
RL: Hertha Zehlendorf2
Carl Zeiss Jena2
04.08.24
RL: Carl Zeiss Jena6
Hertha Zehlendorf2
Recent Form
Hertha Zehlendorf
25.03.26
RL: Lokomotive Leipzig0
Hertha Zehlendorf2
W
22.03.26
RL: Hertha Zehlendorf0
Eilenburg0
D
13.03.26
RL: Zwickau1
Hertha Zehlendorf0
L
08.03.26
RL: Hertha Zehlendorf1
Luckenwalde1
D
04.03.26
RL: Hertha Zehlendorf1
Hallescher4
L
01.03.26
RL: Hertha Zehlendorf1
Meuselwitz1
D
24.01.26
CF: Hertha Zehlendorf0
Hansa Rostock II1
L
21.01.26
CF: Hertha Zehlendorf4
Makkabi Berlin1
W
17.01.26
CF: Klosterfelde4
Hertha Zehlendorf2
L
06.12.25
RL: Hertha Zehlendorf1
Altglienicke3
L
Jena
22.03.26
RL: Chemnitzer FC4
Carl Zeiss Jena1
L
13.03.26
RL: Carl Zeiss Jena1
Meuselwitz2
L
08.03.26
RL: Lokomotive Leipzig1
Carl Zeiss Jena2
W
03.03.26
RL: Carl Zeiss Jena0
Altglienicke0
D
27.02.26
RL: Eilenburg2
Carl Zeiss Jena1
L
21.02.26
RL: Carl Zeiss Jena2
Chemie Leipzig1
W
01.02.26
CF: Carl Zeiss Jena1
Halberstadt1
D
24.01.26
CF: Hannover II6
Carl Zeiss Jena2
L
21.01.26
CF: Carl Zeiss Jena3
Plauen2
W
17.01.26
CF: FSV Frankfurt2
Carl Zeiss Jena0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Wednesday, 1st April 2026, Hertha Zehlendorf host Jena in Germany Regionalliga Nordost. Our analysis desk recommends over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Hertha Zehlendorf arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Jena are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Hertha Zehlendorf, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Jena's 2, with 1 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 67% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.52 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Germany Regionalliga Nordost game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is Over 2.5, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.52. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 1 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Hertha Zehlendorf vs Jena?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.52. Tip confidence rating: 80%.
What is Hertha Zehlendorf's current form?
Hertha Zehlendorf have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Jena been performing recently?
Jena have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Hertha Zehlendorf lead with 0 wins versus Jena's 2, with 1 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
⚠️
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