WON Case WON Fluminense W 1-0 Juventude W
Fixture Case File · Ref V
F

Fluminense W

Home Side
L D W W W
6W 2D 2L → Holding Steady
VS
1-0
J
Juventude W
Away Side
L L W D L
2W 1D 7L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
62%
Wednesday, 1st April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Fluminense W to win
Fluminense W 50%
Draw 30%
Juventude W 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob74.1%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-12.1%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBF<<<<<<<<<<W<<<<<<<<<<J<<<<<<<<<W<<<<<<49CCA6C614DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 1 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Fluminense W to win
1.35
Under 2.5 Goals65% BTTS — No75% Fluminense W Clean Sheet70%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Fluminense W vs Juventude W Competition: Brasileiro Women Date: Wednesday, 1st April 2026 Pick: 1 (Fluminense W to win) Odds: 1.35 Confidence: 62% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: BTTS — No (75%) Also: Fluminense W Clean Sheet (70%) Ledger Ref: 49CCA6C61
Head to Head
Record
1
Fluminense W
0
Draws
0
Juventude W
1
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
100%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Fluminense W won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Fluminense W
Metric
Juventude W
1.7
Goals For / Game
0.6
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.5
70%
Clean Sheets
30%
6-2-2
W — D — L
2-1-7
Win Rate
60%
20%
2.3
Avg Goals
60%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
25%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
J0
J1
J2
J3
J4
J5
F0
0-0 10.5%
0-1 6.9%
0-2 2.2%
0-3 0.5%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
F1
1-0 16.9%
1-1 11.0%
1-2 3.6%
1-3 0.8%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
F2
2-0 13.5%
2-1 8.8%
2-2 2.9%
2-3 0.6%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
F3
3-0 7.2%
3-1 4.7%
3-2 1.5%
3-3 0.3%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
F4
4-0 2.9%
4-1 1.9%
4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
F5
5-0 0.9%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(16.9%) 2-0(13.5%) 2-1(8.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing F=Home goals ↓   J=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Fluminense W Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Juventude W Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Fluminense W
Overall
6.6
Scoring
5.7
Defence
7.7
Juventude W
Overall
2.3
Scoring
2.0
Defence
5.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 16%
Home Win & BTTS No 47%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 5%
Away Win & BTTS No 16%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 22%
Home Win & Under 2.5 41%
Draw & Over 2.5 6%
Draw & Under 2.5 10%
Away Win & Over 2.5 7%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
30.03.25
BA1: Juventude W1
Fluminense2
Recent Form
Fluminense W
26.03.26
BA1: Cruzeiro W3
Fluminense W2
L
24.03.26
BA1: Fluminense W0
São Paulo W0
D
14.03.26
BA1: Grêmio W0
Fluminense W1
W
08.03.26
CPW: Fluminense W2
Flamengo W0
W
04.03.26
CPW: Fluminense W7
Heips W0
W
28.02.26
CPW: Vasco W0
Fluminense W1
W
21.02.26
BA1: Corinthians W2
Fluminense W2
D
14.02.26
BA1: Fluminense W1
Vitória W0
W
04.02.26
CPW: Fluminense W1
Botafogo RJ W0
W
22.11.25
CAR: Flamengo W2
Fluminense W0
L
Juventude W
27.03.26
BA1: Juventude W1
Flamengo W3
L
22.03.26
BA1: RB Bragantino W2
Juventude W0
L
14.03.26
BA1: América Mineiro W0
Juventude W1
W
22.02.26
BA1: Juventude W0
Atlético-MG W0
D
15.02.26
BA1: Botafogo RJ W2
Juventude W1
L
23.11.25
GAU: Grêmio W2
Juventude W1
L
16.11.25
GAU: Juventude W0
Grêmio W3
L
01.11.25
GAU: Internacional W2
Juventude W (2-3 on pens)0
W
18.10.25
GAU: Juventude W2
Internacional W0
W
11.10.25
GAU: Grêmio W1
Juventude W0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Wednesday, 1st April 2026, Fluminense W host Juventude W in Brasileiro Women. Our analysis desk recommends Fluminense W to win as the standout selection.

Fluminense W arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Juventude W are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 1D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Fluminense W, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Juventude W's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: fluminense w to win at odds of 1.35 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Brasileiro Women game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.35. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 1 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Fluminense W vs Juventude W?
Our selection is 1 — Fluminense W to win, priced at approximately 1.35. Tip confidence rating: 62%.
What is Fluminense W's current form?
Fluminense W have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Juventude W been performing recently?
Juventude W have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Fluminense W lead with 1 wins versus Juventude W's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
⚠️
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