WON Case WON Vikingur Reykjavik 4-0 Vestri
Fixture Case File · Ref V
V

Vikingur Reykjavik

Home Side
W W W L D
4W 2D 4L ▲ Trending Up
VS
4-0
V
Vestri
Away Side
D L L L W
1W 3D 6L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
55%
Sunday, 29th March 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Vikingur Reykjavik to win
Vikingur Reykjavik 50%
Draw 30%
Vestri 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob83.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-28.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBV<<<<<<<<R<<<<<<<<<<<<V<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<16BFBA7694DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 29 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Vikingur Reykjavik to win
1.20
Over 1.5 Goals95%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Vikingur Reykjavik vs Vestri Competition: Iceland Super Cup Date: Sunday, 29th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Vikingur Reykjavik to win) Odds: 1.20 Confidence: 55% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%) Ledger Ref: 16BFBA769
Head to Head
Record
4
Vikingur Reykjavik
1
Draws
0
Vestri
5
Meetings
3.2
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Vikingur Reykjavik won 4 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Vikingur Reykjavik
Metric
Vestri
1.6
Goals For / Game
1.3
1.5
Goals Against / Game
3
10%
Clean Sheets
0%
4-2-4
W — D — L
1-3-6
Win Rate
40%
10%
3.7
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
V0
V1
V2
V3
V4
V5
V0
0-0 2.5%
0-1 3.5%
0-2 2.4%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
V1
1-0 5.7%
1-1 8.0%
1-2 5.6%
1-3 2.6%
1-4 0.9%
1-5 0.3%
V2
2-0 6.5%
2-1 9.2%
2-2 6.4%
2-3 3.0%
2-4 1.1%
2-5 0.3%
V3
3-0 5.0%
3-1 7.0%
3-2 4.9%
3-3 2.3%
3-4 0.8%
3-5 0.2%
V4
4-0 2.9%
4-1 4.0%
4-2 2.8%
4-3 1.3%
4-4 0.5%
4-5 0.1%
V5
5-0 1.3%
5-1 1.9%
5-2 1.3%
5-3 0.6%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 2-1(9.2%) 3-1(7.0%) 2-0(6.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing V=Home goals ↓   V=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Vikingur Reykjavik Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Vestri Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Vikingur Reykjavik
Overall
4.6
Scoring
5.3
Defence
5.0
Vestri
Overall
1.9
Scoring
4.3
Defence
0.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 34%
Home Win & BTTS No 19%
Draw & BTTS Yes 21%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Away Win & BTTS No 5%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 29%
Home Win & Under 2.5 24%
Draw & Over 2.5 18%
Draw & Under 2.5 15%
Away Win & Over 2.5 8%
Away Win & Under 2.5 6%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
26.08.25
BK: Vikingur Reykjavik4
Vestri1
29.05.25
BK: Vestri0
Vikingur Reykjavik1
11.08.24
BK: Vikingur Reykjavik1
Vestri1
20.05.24
BK: Vestri1
Vikingur Reykjavik4
02.10.21
CUP: Vestri0
Vikingur Reykjavik3
Recent Form
Vikingur Reykjavik
04.03.26
CUP: Vikingur Reykjavik2
IR Reykjavik0
W
25.02.26
CUP: Vikingur Reykjavik3
Throttur1
W
19.02.26
CUP: Vikingur Reykjavik1
KR Reykjavik0
W
15.02.26
CUP: KA Akureyri2
Vikingur Reykjavik0
L
07.02.26
CUP: Vikingur Reykjavik1
Njardvik1
D
31.01.26
CUP: Vikingur Reykjavik2
Grindavik0
W
24.01.26
CUP: Vikingur Reykjavik1
Fram1
D
19.01.26
CUP: Fjolnir3
Vikingur Reykjavik4
W
14.01.26
CUP: Vikingur Reykjavik2
IR Reykjavik0
W
11.12.25
CUP: Leiknir2
Vikingur Reykjavik5
W
Vestri
17.03.26
CUP: Stjarnan2
Vestri2
D
28.02.26
CUP: Fram5
Vestri2
L
18.02.26
CUP: HK Kópavogur3
Vestri2
L
14.02.26
CUP: Vestri2
Keflavík3
L
07.02.26
CUP: Ægir1
Vestri2
W
25.10.25
BK: Vestri1
KR Reykjavik5
L
19.10.25
BK: Afturelding1
Vestri1
D
05.10.25
BK: KA Akureyri1
Vestri1
D
28.09.25
BK: Vestri0
Vestmannaeyjar5
L
20.09.25
BK: Vestri0
Akranes4
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Sunday, 29th March 2026, Vikingur Reykjavik host Vestri in Iceland Super Cup. Our analysis desk recommends Vikingur Reykjavik to win as the standout selection.

Vikingur Reykjavik arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Vestri are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 3D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Vikingur Reykjavik, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Vestri's 0, with 1 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: vikingur reykjavik to win at odds of 1.20 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Iceland Super Cup game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.20. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 29 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Vikingur Reykjavik vs Vestri?
Our selection is 1 — Vikingur Reykjavik to win, priced at approximately 1.20. Tip confidence rating: 55%.
What is Vikingur Reykjavik's current form?
Vikingur Reykjavik have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Vestri been performing recently?
Vestri have recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Vikingur Reykjavik lead with 4 wins versus Vestri's 0, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
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