WON Case WON Beveren 4-0 RFC Liege
Fixture Case File · Ref V
B

Beveren

Home Side
D W W W W
9W 1D 0L → Holding Steady
VS
4-0
R
RFC Liege
Away Side
L D L W L
4W 3D 3L ▲ Trending Up
CASE VERIFIED
68%
Saturday, 21st March 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Beveren to win
Beveren 60%
Draw 20%
RFC Liege 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob76.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-8.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBB<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<RFC<L<<<<<<<<<<<<E8E1FAA304DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 21 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Beveren to win
1.31
Under 2.5 Goals70% BTTS — No70%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Beveren vs RFC Liege Competition: Challenger Pro League Date: Saturday, 21st March 2026 Pick: 1 (Beveren to win) Odds: 1.31 Confidence: 68% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: BTTS — No (70%) Ledger Ref: E8E1FAA30
Head to Head
Record
5
Beveren
4
Draws
0
RFC Liege
9
Meetings
2.8
Avg Goals
78%
BTTS
67%
Over 2.5
Neutral Beveren won 5 of the last 9 meetings (4 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Beveren
Metric
RFC Liege
2.4
Goals For / Game
0
0.9
Goals Against / Game
0
40%
Clean Sheets
0%
9-1-0
W — D — L
4-3-3
Win Rate
90%
40%
1.7
Avg Goals
45%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
30%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
R0
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
B0
0-0 19.2%
0-1 8.6%
0-2 1.9%
0-3 0.3%
0-4 0.0%
0-5 0.0%
B1
1-0 23.1%
1-1 10.4%
1-2 2.3%
1-3 0.4%
1-4 0.0%
1-5 0.0%
B2
2-0 13.8%
2-1 6.2%
2-2 1.4%
2-3 0.2%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
B3
3-0 5.5%
3-1 2.5%
3-2 0.6%
3-3 0.1%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
B4
4-0 1.7%
4-1 0.8%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
B5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(23.1%) 2-0(13.8%) 2-1(6.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing B=Home goals ↓   R=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Beveren Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
RFC Liege Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Beveren
Overall
9.3
Scoring
8.0
Defence
7.0
RFC Liege
Overall
4.9
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Home Win & BTTS No 42%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Away Win & BTTS No 19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 18%
Home Win & Under 2.5 42%
Draw & Over 2.5 4%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 8%
Away Win & Under 2.5 19%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
24.09.25
CPL: RFC Liège1
SK Beveren2
15.02.25
CPL: SK Beveren3
RFC Liège1
31.08.24
CPL: RFC Liège0
SK Beveren0
31.03.24
CPL: RFC Liège5
SK Beveren1
24.09.23
CPL: SK Beveren1
RFC Liège2
17.01.10
CPL: RFC Liège0
SK Beveren1
29.08.09
CPL: SK Beveren2
RFC Liège1
11.04.09
CPL: SK Beveren2
RFC Liège1
30.11.08
CPL: RFC Liège1
SK Beveren1
Recent Form
Beveren
14.03.26
CPL: Club Brugge KV U232
SK Beveren2
D
11.03.26
CPL: SK Beveren3
RWDM Brussels2
W
08.03.26
CPL: Sporting Lokeren1
SK Beveren2
W
28.02.26
CPL: SK Beveren2
OC Charleroi0
W
22.02.26
CPL: Patro Eisden1
SK Beveren4
W
15.02.26
CPL: Francs Borains0
SK Beveren2
W
08.02.26
CPL: SK Beveren2
Lommel SK0
W
28.01.26
CPL: Gent U232
SK Beveren4
W
25.01.26
CPL: SK Beveren1
K. Lierse S.K.0
W
17.01.26
CPL: Eupen1
SK Beveren2
W
RFC Liege
14.03.26
CPL: RFC Liège0
Beerschot VA1
L
10.03.26
CPL: Patro Eisden1
RFC Liège1
D
27.02.26
CPL: Kortrijk3
RFC Liège1
L
20.02.26
CPL: RFC Liège3
Club Brugge KV U232
W
14.02.26
CPL: Genk U232
RFC Liège0
L
06.02.26
CPL: RFC Liège2
K. Lierse S.K.1
W
31.01.26
CPL: Anderlecht U230
RFC Liège0
D
27.01.26
CPL: RFC Liège1
Lommel SK0
W
24.01.26
CPL: Seraing2
RFC Liège2
D
17.01.26
CPL: RFC Liège3
Francs Borains1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Saturday, 21st March 2026, Beveren host RFC Liege in Challenger Pro League. Our analysis desk recommends Beveren to win as the standout selection.

Beveren arrive in strong form, having recorded 9 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

RFC Liege are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 3D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Beveren, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to RFC Liege's 0, with 4 draws from 9 encounters. Both teams have scored in 78% of those meetings.

Our verdict: beveren to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Challenger Pro League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.31. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 21 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Beveren vs RFC Liege?
Our selection is 1 — Beveren to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Beveren's current form?
Beveren have won 9, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has RFC Liege been performing recently?
RFC Liege have recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Beveren lead with 5 wins versus RFC Liege's 0, with 4 draws across 9 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 78%.
⚠️
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