WON Case WON Al Merreikh 3-0 Muhanga
Fixture Case File · Ref V
A

Al Merreikh

Home Side
D W D W W
3W 7D 0L ▼ Trending Down
VS
3-0
M
Muhanga
Away Side
W D D W L
2W 4D 4L → Holding Steady
CAUTION
34%
Thursday, 19th March 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Al Merreikh to win
Al Merreikh 50%
Draw 30%
Muhanga 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob75.2%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-41.2%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBA<<M<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<M<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<A4A4994B44DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 19 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
0
Al Merreikh
1
Draws
0
Muhanga
1
Meetings
0
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Al Merreikh won 0 of the last 1 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Merreikh
Metric
Muhanga
1
Goals For / Game
1.1
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.6
40%
Clean Sheets
10%
3-7-0
W — D — L
2-4-4
Win Rate
30%
20%
2.2
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
A0
0-0 11.1%
0-1 10.0%
0-2 4.5%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
A1
1-0 14.4%
1-1 13.0%
1-2 5.8%
1-3 1.8%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
A2
2-0 9.4%
2-1 8.4%
2-2 3.8%
2-3 1.1%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 4.1%
3-1 3.7%
3-2 1.6%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 1.3%
4-1 1.2%
4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(14.4%) 2-0(9.4%) 2-1(8.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing A=Home goals ↓   M=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Al Merreikh Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Muhanga Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Al Merreikh
Overall
5.1
Scoring
3.3
Defence
7.7
Muhanga
Overall
3.2
Scoring
3.7
Defence
4.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Home Win & BTTS No 10%
Draw & BTTS Yes 34%
Draw & BTTS No 18%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 12%
Home Win & Under 2.5 17%
Draw & Over 2.5 21%
Draw & Under 2.5 31%
Away Win & Over 2.5 8%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
29.12.25
PL: Muhanga0
Al-Merreikh0
Recent Form
Al Merreikh
16.03.26
PL: Rayon Sport0
Al-Merreikh0
D
09.03.26
PL: Police0
Al-Merreikh1
W
27.02.26
PL: Al-Merreikh1
Gasogi United1
D
22.02.26
PL: AS Kigali0
Al-Merreikh1
W
17.02.26
PL: Al-Hilal Omdurman1
Al-Merreikh2
W
13.02.26
PL: Musanze1
Al-Merreikh1
D
08.02.26
PL: Marines1
Al-Merreikh1
D
21.01.26
PL: Al-Merreikh2
Rayon Sport2
D
18.01.26
PL: APR0
Al-Merreikh0
D
11.01.26
PL: Al-Merreikh1
Mukura Victory Sports1
D
Muhanga
15.03.26
PL: Muhanga2
Mukura Victory Sports1
W
08.03.26
PL: AS Kigali2
Muhanga2
D
01.03.26
PL: Muhanga1
Police1
D
21.02.26
PL: Muhanga2
Rutsiro1
W
15.02.26
PL: Etincelles2
Muhanga1
L
08.02.26
PL: Muhanga1
Gasogi United1
D
14.01.26
PL: Al-Hilal Omdurman3
Muhanga0
L
09.01.26
PL: Muhanga2
Gicumbi3
L
04.01.26
PL: Rayon Sport2
Muhanga0
L
29.12.25
PL: Muhanga0
Al-Merreikh0
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Thursday, 19th March 2026, Al Merreikh host Muhanga in Rwanda Premier League. Our analysis desk recommends Al Merreikh to win as the standout selection.

Al Merreikh arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 7 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Muhanga are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 4D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Merreikh, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Muhanga's 0, with 1 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: al merreikh to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Rwanda Premier League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass. We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side. We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage. Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at 1.33. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over. The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 19 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Merreikh vs Muhanga?
Our selection is 1 — Al Merreikh to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 34%.
What is Al Merreikh's current form?
Al Merreikh have won 3, drawn 7 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Muhanga been performing recently?
Muhanga have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Merreikh lead with 0 wins versus Muhanga's 0, with 1 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
⚠️
Bet Responsibly. DailyForebet provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.
18+Betting carries risk: debt, isolation, dependency. Predictions are for entertainment and informational purposes only, not financial advice.