WON Case WON Lyngby 4-1 Middelfart

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Lyngby

Q: What is the recommended bet for Lyngby vs Middelfart?

Our selection is 1 — Lyngby to win, priced at approximately 1.25. Tip confidence rating: 45%.

Q: What is Lyngby's current form?

Lyngby have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Middelfart been performing recently?

Middelfart have recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Lyngby lead with 0 wins versus Middelfart's 0, with 1 draws across 1 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.

Home Side

W W D W D

3W 2D 0L ▼ Trending Down

4-1

Middelfart

Away Side

L L L W L

1W 0D 4L ▲ Trending Up

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MODERATE

45%

Friday, 13th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Lyngby to win

Lyngby 50%

Draw 30%

Middelfart 20%

H Fair Odds2

D Fair Odds3.33

A Fair Odds5

Implied Prob80%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-35%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBL<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<M<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<C7EFFCB554DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 13 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — Lyngby to win

1.25

Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals100% BTTS — Yes70%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Lyngby vs Middelfart Competition: Denmark 1 Division Date: Friday, 13th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Lyngby to win) Odds: 1.25 Confidence: 45% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (100%) Also: BTTS — Yes (70%) Ledger Ref: C7EFFCB55

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Head to Head

Record

Lyngby

Draws

Middelfart

Meetings

Avg Goals

100%

BTTS

100%

Over 2.5

Against Filing Lyngby won 0 of the last 1 meetings (1 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Lyngby

Metric

Middelfart

Goals For / Game

1.2

Goals Against / Game

2.6

20%

Clean Sheets

20%

3-2-0

W — D — L

1-0-4

Win Rate

60%

20%

3.4

Avg Goals

100%

Over 1.5

80%

Over 2.5

70%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 3.3%

0-1 3.7%

0-2 2.0%

0-3 0.7%

0-4 0.2%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 7.7%

1-1 8.4%

1-2 4.6%

1-3 1.7%

1-4 0.5%

1-5 0.1%

2-0 8.8%

2-1 9.7%

2-2 5.3%

2-3 2.0%

2-4 0.5%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 6.8%

3-1 7.4%

3-2 4.1%

3-3 1.5%

3-4 0.4%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 3.9%

4-1 4.3%

4-2 2.4%

4-3 0.9%

4-4 0.2%

4-5 0.1%

5-0 1.8%

5-1 2.0%

5-2 1.1%

5-3 0.4%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 2-1(9.7%) 2-0(8.8%) 1-0(7.7%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing L=Home goals ↓ M=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Lyngby Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Middelfart Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

Lyngby

Overall

7.2 —

Scoring

6.7 —

Defence

6.7 —

Middelfart

Overall

2.0 —

Scoring

4.0 —

Defence

1.3 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 42%

Home Win & BTTS No 18%

Draw & BTTS Yes 14%

Draw & BTTS No 6%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%

Away Win & BTTS No 6%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 48%

Home Win & Under 2.5 12%

Draw & Over 2.5 16%

Draw & Under 2.5 4%

Away Win & Over 2.5 16%

Away Win & Under 2.5 4%

🧮

Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ 1D (Aug 30, 2025): Middelfart2

Lyngby2

Recent Form

Lyngby

⚽ 1D (Mar 9, 2026): Horsens1

Lyngby3

⚽ 1D (Feb 27, 2026): Lyngby2

Kolding IF0

⚽ CF (Feb 20, 2026): Hillerod2

Lyngby2

⚽ CF (Feb 12, 2026): Syunik1

Lyngby2

⚽ CF (Feb 12, 2026): Torpedo Kutaisi1

Lyngby1

Middelfart

⚽ 1D (Mar 7, 2026): Middelfart1

Hvidovre IF2

⚽ 1D (Feb 28, 2026): Aarhus Fremad4

Middelfart1

⚽ CF (Feb 21, 2026): Kolding IF4

Middelfart1

⚽ CF (Feb 13, 2026): Middelfart3

Jihlava0

⚽ CF (Feb 8, 2026): Middelfart0

Corvinul3

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Friday, 13th March 2026, Lyngby host Middelfart in Denmark 1 Division. Our analysis desk recommends Lyngby to win as the standout selection.

Lyngby arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Middelfart are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 0D 4L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Lyngby, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Middelfart's 0, with 1 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: lyngby to win at odds of 1.25 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 13 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Lyngby vs Middelfart?

Our selection is 1 — Lyngby to win, priced at approximately 1.25. Tip confidence rating: 45%.

What is Lyngby's current form?

Lyngby have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

How has Middelfart been performing recently?

Middelfart have recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Lyngby lead with 0 wins versus Middelfart's 0, with 1 draws across 1 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.

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