LOST Case LOST BUL 0-0 Mbarara City

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

BUL

Q: What is the recommended bet for BUL vs Mbarara City?

Our selection is 1 — BUL to win, priced at approximately 1.36. Tip confidence rating: 40%.

Q: What is BUL's current form?

BUL have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Mbarara City been performing recently?

Mbarara City have recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

BUL lead with 0 wins versus Mbarara City's 1, with 4 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

Home Side

W W W L D

3W 1D 1L ▼ Trending Down

0-0

Mbarara City

Away Side

L L L L W

1W 0D 4L ▲ Trending Up

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CAUTION

40%

Friday, 13th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on BUL to win

BUL 50%

Draw 20%

Mbarara City 30%

H Fair Odds2

D Fair Odds5

A Fair Odds3.33

Implied Prob73.5%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-33.5%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBBUL<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<M<<<<<<<C<<<<<<<<6E66740674DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 13 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — BUL to win

1.36

Under 2.5 Goals70%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

BUL vs Mbarara City Competition: Uganda Premier League Date: Friday, 13th March 2026 Pick: 1 (BUL to win) Odds: 1.36 Confidence: 40% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (70%) Ledger Ref: 6E6674067

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Head to Head

Record

BUL

Draws

Mbarara City

Meetings

1.2

Avg Goals

40%

BTTS

Over 2.5

Against Filing BUL won 0 of the last 5 meetings (4 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

BUL

Metric

Mbarara City

Goals For / Game

0.4

0.8

Goals Against / Game

1.2

40%

Clean Sheets

20%

3-1-1

W — D — L

1-0-4

Win Rate

60%

20%

2.2

Avg Goals

60%

Over 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

40%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 11.1%

0-1 6.7%

0-2 2.0%

0-3 0.4%

0-4 0.1%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 17.7%

1-1 10.6%

1-2 3.2%

1-3 0.6%

1-4 0.1%

1-5 0.0%

2-0 14.2%

2-1 8.5%

2-2 2.6%

2-3 0.5%

2-4 0.1%

2-5 0.0%

3-0 7.6%

3-1 4.5%

3-2 1.4%

3-3 0.3%

3-4 0.0%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 3.0%

4-1 1.8%

4-2 0.5%

4-3 0.1%

4-4 0.0%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 1.0%

5-1 0.6%

5-2 0.2%

5-3 0.0%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 1-0(17.7%) 2-0(14.2%) 2-1(8.5%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing B=Home goals ↓ M=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

BUL Win

50%

Draw

20%

Mbarara City Win

30%

3.33

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

BUL

Overall

6.6 —

Scoring

6.7 —

Defence

7.3 —

Mbarara City

Overall

2.0 —

Scoring

1.3 —

Defence

6.0 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 27%

Home Win & BTTS No 40%

Draw & BTTS Yes 4%

Draw & BTTS No 7%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 9%

Away Win & BTTS No 13%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 20%

Home Win & Under 2.5 47%

Draw & Over 2.5 3%

Draw & Under 2.5 8%

Away Win & Over 2.5 7%

Away Win & Under 2.5 15%

🧮

Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ PL (Oct 17, 2025): Mbarara City1

BUL1

⚽ PL (Mar 29, 2025): Mbarara City0

BUL0

⚽ PL (Oct 2, 2024): BUL0

Mbarara City2

⚽ PL (May 14, 2024): Mbarara City0

BUL0

⚽ PL (Jan 6, 2024): BUL1

Mbarara City1

Recent Form

BUL

⚽ PL (Mar 10, 2026): Buhimba0

BUL1

⚽ PL (Mar 6, 2026): BUL5

Calvary1

⚽ PL (Mar 3, 2026): Police0

BUL2

⚽ PL (Feb 18, 2026): Kampala City2

BUL1

⚽ PL (Feb 13, 2026): BUL1

Vipers1

Mbarara City

⚽ PL (Mar 10, 2026): Mbarara City0

Kitara1

⚽ PL (Mar 7, 2026): Mbarara City1

Vipers2

⚽ PL (Mar 4, 2026): URA SC2

Mbarara City0

⚽ PL (Feb 17, 2026): Entebbe UPPC1

Mbarara City0

⚽ PL (Feb 12, 2026): Mbarara City1

Calvary0

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Friday, 13th March 2026, BUL host Mbarara City in Uganda Premier League. Our analysis desk recommends BUL to win as the standout selection.

BUL arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Mbarara City are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 0D 4L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour BUL, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Mbarara City's 1, with 4 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: bul to win at odds of 1.36 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 13 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for BUL vs Mbarara City?

Our selection is 1 — BUL to win, priced at approximately 1.36. Tip confidence rating: 40%.

What is BUL's current form?

BUL have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

How has Mbarara City been performing recently?

Mbarara City have recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

BUL lead with 0 wins versus Mbarara City's 1, with 4 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

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