WON Case WON Neftchi Fargona 3-0 Andijan

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Neftchi Fargona

Q: What is the recommended bet for Neftchi Fargona vs Andijan?

Our selection is 1 — Neftchi Fargona to win, priced at approximately 1.43. Tip confidence rating: 57%.

Q: What is Neftchi Fargona's current form?

Neftchi Fargona have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Andijan been performing recently?

Andijan have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Neftchi Fargona lead with 2 wins versus Andijan's 0, with 3 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.

Home Side

W W W W L

4W 0D 1L ▼ Trending Down

3-0

Andijan

Away Side

L W L D D

1W 2D 2L ▼ Trending Down

⚑

MODERATE

57%

Tuesday, 10th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Neftchi Fargona to win

Neftchi Fargona 50%

Draw 30%

Andijan 20%

H Fair Odds2

D Fair Odds3.33

A Fair Odds5

Implied Prob69.9%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-12.9%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBN<<<<<<<F<<<<<<<<<<<<<A<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<2C329C71F4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 11 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

⚡

Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — Neftchi Fargona to win

1.43

Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals90%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Neftchi Fargona vs Andijan Competition: Uzbekistan Super League Date: Tuesday, 10th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Neftchi Fargona to win) Odds: 1.43 Confidence: 57% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Ledger Ref: 2C329C71F

⚔

Head to Head

Record

Neftchi Fargona

Draws

Andijan

Meetings

1.6

Avg Goals

20%

BTTS

20%

Over 2.5

Against Filing Neftchi Fargona won 2 of the last 5 meetings (3 draws).

📊

Stats Duel

Comparison

Neftchi Fargona

Metric

Andijan

2.6

Goals For / Game

1.4

0.8

Goals Against / Game

40%

Clean Sheets

40%

4-0-1

W — D — L

1-2-2

Win Rate

80%

20%

2.9

Avg Goals

90%

Over 1.5

80%

Over 2.5

60%

BTTS Rate

🎯

Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 5.5%

0-1 6.1%

0-2 3.3%

0-3 1.2%

0-4 0.3%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 9.9%

1-1 10.9%

1-2 6.0%

1-3 2.2%

1-4 0.6%

1-5 0.1%

2-0 8.9%

2-1 9.8%

2-2 5.4%

2-3 2.0%

2-4 0.5%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 5.4%

3-1 5.9%

3-2 3.2%

3-3 1.2%

3-4 0.3%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 2.4%

4-1 2.7%

4-2 1.5%

4-3 0.5%

4-4 0.2%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.9%

5-1 1.0%

5-2 0.5%

5-3 0.2%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 1-0(9.9%) 2-1(9.8%) 2-0(8.9%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing N=Home goals ↓ A=Away →

📉

Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Neftchi Fargona Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Andijan Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

📈

Team Ratings

Grades

Neftchi Fargona

Overall

8.0 —

Scoring

8.7 —

Defence

7.3 —

Andijan

Overall

3.2 —

Scoring

4.7 —

Defence

6.7 —

🔀

Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 40%

Home Win & BTTS No 27%

Draw & BTTS Yes 10%

Draw & BTTS No 7%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%

Away Win & BTTS No 6%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 54%

Home Win & Under 2.5 13%

Draw & Over 2.5 14%

Draw & Under 2.5 3%

Away Win & Over 2.5 13%

Away Win & Under 2.5 3%

🧮

Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

📜

Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ SL (05.10.25): Neftchi Fargona2

Andijan0

⚽ SL (09.05.25): Andijan0

Neftchi Fargona2

⚽ SL (25.09.24): Andijan0

Neftchi Fargona0

⚽ SL (12.05.24): Neftchi Fargona2

Andijan2

⚽ SL (31.08.23): Neftchi Fargona0

Andijan0

Recent Form

Neftchi Fargona

⚽ SL (05.03.26): Termez Surkhon0

Neftchi Fargona3

⚽ SL (28.02.26): Neftchi Fargona3

Mashal Muborak0

⚽ CF (10.02.26): Neftchi Fargona4

Dinamo Batumi1

⚽ CF (07.02.26): Oleksandriya1

Neftchi Fargona2

⚽ CF (31.01.26): Neftchi Fargona1

Arkadag2

Andijan

⚽ SL (04.03.26): Qizilqum2

Andijan1

⚽ SL (27.02.26): Andijan4

Sogdiana0

⚽ CF (17.02.26): Dynamo Makhachkala2

Andijan1

⚽ CF (05.02.26): FK Zorya Luhansk0

Andijan0

⚽ CF (20.01.26): Vardar1

Andijan1

📝

Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Tuesday, 10th March 2026, Neftchi Fargona host Andijan in Uzbekistan Super League. Our analysis desk recommends Neftchi Fargona to win as the standout selection.

Neftchi Fargona arrive in strong form, having recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Andijan are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 2D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Neftchi Fargona, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Andijan's 0, with 3 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.

Our verdict: neftchi fargona to win at odds of 1.43 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 11 Mar 2026

❓

Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Neftchi Fargona vs Andijan?

Our selection is 1 — Neftchi Fargona to win, priced at approximately 1.43. Tip confidence rating: 57%.

What is Neftchi Fargona's current form?

Neftchi Fargona have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

How has Andijan been performing recently?

Andijan have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Neftchi Fargona lead with 2 wins versus Andijan's 0, with 3 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.

🔗

More Cases Today

⚠️

Bet Responsibly. DailyForebet provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.