WON Case WON Flora 3-1 Nomme Utd

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Flora

Q: What is the recommended bet for Flora vs Nomme Utd?

Our selection is 1 — Flora to win, priced at approximately 1.14. Tip confidence rating: 65%.

Q: What is Flora's current form?

Flora have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Nomme Utd been performing recently?

Nomme Utd have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Flora lead with 4 wins versus Nomme Utd's 0, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.

Home Side

W L L W W

3W 0D 2L → Holding Steady

3-1

Nomme Utd

Away Side

L W W D L

2W 1D 2L → Holding Steady

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CASE VERIFIED

65%

Tuesday, 10th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Flora to win

Flora 60%

Draw 20%

Nomme Utd 20%

H Fair Odds1.67

D Fair Odds5

A Fair Odds5

Implied Prob87.7%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-22.7%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBF<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<N<<<<<U<<<<<<<<<<C83DAECCB4DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 11 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — Flora to win

1.14

Over 2.5 Goals90% Over 1.5 Goals90%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Flora vs Nomme Utd Competition: Estonian Cup Date: Tuesday, 10th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Flora to win) Odds: 1.14 Confidence: 65% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (90%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Ledger Ref: C83DAECCB

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Head to Head

Record

Flora

Draws

Nomme Utd

Meetings

2.4

Avg Goals

20%

BTTS

40%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing Flora won 4 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Flora

Metric

Nomme Utd

1.6

Goals For / Game

2.4

1.4

Goals Against / Game

2.2

40%

Clean Sheets

20%

3-0-2

W — D — L

2-1-2

Win Rate

60%

40%

3.8

Avg Goals

90%

Over 1.5

90%

Over 2.5

50%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 2.2%

0-1 4.3%

0-2 4.0%

0-3 2.6%

0-4 1.2%

0-5 0.5%

1-0 4.3%

1-1 8.1%

1-2 7.7%

1-3 4.9%

1-4 2.3%

1-5 0.9%

2-0 4.0%

2-1 7.7%

2-2 7.3%

2-3 4.6%

2-4 2.2%

2-5 0.8%

3-0 2.6%

3-1 4.9%

3-2 4.6%

3-3 2.9%

3-4 1.4%

3-5 0.5%

4-0 1.2%

4-1 2.3%

4-2 2.2%

4-3 1.4%

4-4 0.7%

4-5 0.3%

5-0 0.5%

5-1 0.9%

5-2 0.8%

5-3 0.5%

5-4 0.3%

5-5 0.1%

Top Scores 2-1(7.7%) 3-1(4.9%) 3-2(4.6%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing F=Home goals ↓ N=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Flora Win

60%

1.67

Draw

20%

Nomme Utd Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

Flora

Overall

6.0 —

Scoring

5.3 —

Defence

5.3 —

Nomme Utd

Overall

4.6 —

Scoring

8.0 —

Defence

2.7 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 28%

Home Win & BTTS No 28%

Draw & BTTS Yes 5%

Draw & BTTS No 5%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 18%

Away Win & BTTS No 18%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 50%

Home Win & Under 2.5 6%

Draw & Over 2.5 8%

Draw & Under 2.5 1%

Away Win & Over 2.5 32%

Away Win & Under 2.5 4%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ ML (07.03.26): Flora3

Nomme Utd0

⚽ ML (05.10.24): Nomme Utd0

Flora4

⚽ ML (18.08.24): Flora1

Nomme Utd0

⚽ ML (29.06.24): Nomme Utd1

Flora1

⚽ ML (01.03.24): Flora2

Nomme Utd0

Recent Form

Flora

⚽ ML (07.03.26): Flora3

Nomme Utd0

⚽ SC (28.02.26): Flora1

Kalju3

⚽ CF (24.02.26): Flora0

Riga FC3

⚽ CF (20.02.26): Paide1

Flora3

⚽ CF (14.02.26): Flora1

Levadia0

Nomme Utd

⚽ ML (07.03.26): Flora3

Nomme Utd0

⚽ CF (20.02.26): Viimsi JK1

Nomme Utd5

⚽ CF (14.02.26): Nomme Utd3

FC Tallinn0

⚽ CF (07.02.26): Kuressaare3

Nomme Utd3

⚽ CF (01.02.26): Nomme Utd1

Jelgava4

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Tuesday, 10th March 2026, Flora host Nomme Utd in Estonian Cup. Our analysis desk recommends Flora to win as the standout selection.

Flora arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Nomme Utd are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 2W 1D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Flora, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Nomme Utd's 0, with 1 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.

Our verdict: flora to win at odds of 1.14 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 11 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Flora vs Nomme Utd?

Our selection is 1 — Flora to win, priced at approximately 1.14. Tip confidence rating: 65%.

What is Flora's current form?

Flora have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.

How has Nomme Utd been performing recently?

Nomme Utd have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Flora lead with 4 wins versus Nomme Utd's 0, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.

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