WON Case WON Linfield 3-1 Portadown

Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽

Linfield

Q: What is the recommended bet for Linfield vs Portadown?

Our selection is 1 — Linfield to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 56%.

Q: What is Linfield's current form?

Linfield have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

Q: How has Portadown been performing recently?

Portadown have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

Q: What does the head-to-head record show?

Linfield lead with 3 wins versus Portadown's 1, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.

Q: How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

Home Side

L D W W W

3W 1D 1L ▲ Trending Up

3-1

Portadown

Away Side

D L L W W

2W 1D 2L ▲ Trending Up

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MODERATE

56%

Tuesday, 10th March 2026 Case Verdict

Filing on Linfield to win

Linfield 50%

Draw 30%

Portadown 20%

H Fair Odds2

D Fair Odds3.33

A Fair Odds5

Implied Prob81.3%Bookmaker's implied odds

Case Edge-25.3%Overpriced

Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %

Fixture Ledger Code

V<DFBL<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<P<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<9227BBFF74DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 11 Mar 2026

✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked

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Supporting Markets

Extras

Primary Filing

1 — Linfield to win

1.23

Over 1.5 Goals80%

📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder

Linfield vs Portadown Competition: NIFL Premiership Date: Tuesday, 10th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Linfield to win) Odds: 1.23 Confidence: 56% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Ledger Ref: 9227BBFF7

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Head to Head

Record

Linfield

Draws

Portadown

Meetings

3.2

Avg Goals

60%

BTTS

80%

Over 2.5

Supports Filing Linfield won 3 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Linfield

Metric

Portadown

1.8

Goals For / Game

0.8

Goals Against / Game

1.4

40%

Clean Sheets

20%

3-1-1

W — D — L

2-1-2

Win Rate

60%

40%

2.4

Avg Goals

80%

Over 1.5

40%

Over 2.5

40%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 9.1%

0-1 7.3%

0-2 2.9%

0-3 0.8%

0-4 0.2%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 14.5%

1-1 11.6%

1-2 4.6%

1-3 1.2%

1-4 0.3%

1-5 0.0%

2-0 11.6%

2-1 9.3%

2-2 3.7%

2-3 1.0%

2-4 0.2%

2-5 0.0%

3-0 6.2%

3-1 5.0%

3-2 2.0%

3-3 0.5%

3-4 0.1%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 2.5%

4-1 2.0%

4-2 0.8%

4-3 0.2%

4-4 0.0%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.8%

5-1 0.6%

5-2 0.3%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 1-0(14.5%) 2-0(11.6%) 2-1(9.3%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing L=Home goals ↓ P=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Linfield Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Portadown Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

Linfield

Overall

6.6 —

Scoring

6.0 —

Defence

7.3 —

Portadown

Overall

4.6 —

Scoring

2.7 —

Defence

5.3 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 20%

Home Win & BTTS No 30%

Draw & BTTS Yes 7%

Draw & BTTS No 10%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 13%

Away Win & BTTS No 20%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 20%

Home Win & Under 2.5 30%

Draw & Over 2.5 7%

Draw & Under 2.5 10%

Away Win & Over 2.5 13%

Away Win & Under 2.5 20%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File

Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ NIFL (17.10.25): Portadown2

Linfield0

⚽ NIFL (06.09.25): Linfield3

Portadown0

⚽ NIFL (18.01.25): Portadown1

Linfield3

⚽ NIFL (30.11.24): Linfield2

Portadown1

⚽ NIFL (30.08.24): Portadown2

Linfield2

Recent Form

Linfield

⚽ NIFL (01.03.26): Cliftonville2

Linfield0

⚽ NIFL (24.02.26): Larne1

Linfield1

⚽ NIFL (21.02.26): Linfield1

Glentoran0

⚽ NIFL (17.02.26): Dungannon1

Linfield4

⚽ NIFL (14.02.26): Glenavon0

Linfield3

Portadown

⚽ NIFL (07.03.26): Ballymena1

Portadown1

⚽ NIFL (04.03.26): Portadown0

Cliftonville2

⚽ NIFL (28.02.26): Glenavon3

Portadown0

⚽ NIFL (21.02.26): Portadown1

Dungannon0

⚽ NIFL (14.02.26): Portadown2

Larne1

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Match Analysis

Case Notes

On Tuesday, 10th March 2026, Linfield host Portadown in NIFL Premiership. Our analysis desk recommends Linfield to win as the standout selection.

Linfield arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Portadown are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 2W 1D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Linfield, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Portadown's 1, with 1 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: linfield to win at odds of 1.23 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution

DailyForebet Verification Desk

Senior Fixture Analyst

Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.

Reviewed on 11 Mar 2026

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Linfield vs Portadown?

Our selection is 1 — Linfield to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 56%.

What is Linfield's current form?

Linfield have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

How has Portadown been performing recently?

Portadown have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Linfield lead with 3 wins versus Portadown's 1, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

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