LOST Case LOST Wolfsburg W 3-3 Union Berlin W
Fixture Case File · Ref V
W

Wolfsburg W

Home Side
W W W W W
7W 2D 1L ▼ Trending Down
VS
3-3
U
Union Berlin W
Away Side
W D W D L
5W 3D 2L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
60%
Sunday, 29th March 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Wolfsburg W to win
Wolfsburg W 50%
Draw 30%
Union Berlin W 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob81.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-21.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBW<<<<<<<<<W<<<<<<<<<<<U<<<<<B<<<<<<W<<<39944CA044DFB2607202M2607209<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 29 Mar 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Wolfsburg W to win
1.23
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals85% BTTS — Yes70%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Wolfsburg W vs Union Berlin W Competition: Bundesliga Women Date: Sunday, 29th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Wolfsburg W to win) Odds: 1.23 Confidence: 60% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Also: BTTS — Yes (70%) Ledger Ref: 39944CA04
Head to Head
Record
2
Wolfsburg W
0
Draws
1
Union Berlin W
3
Meetings
4.3
Avg Goals
33%
BTTS
67%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Wolfsburg W won 2 of the last 3 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Wolfsburg W
Metric
Union Berlin W
1.5
Goals For / Game
2.7
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.4
50%
Clean Sheets
10%
7-2-1
W — D — L
5-3-2
Win Rate
70%
50%
3.3
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
U0
U1
U2
U3
U4
U5
W0
0-0 3.9%
0-1 7.0%
0-2 6.3%
0-3 3.8%
0-4 1.7%
0-5 0.6%
W1
1-0 5.6%
1-1 10.1%
1-2 9.1%
1-3 5.5%
1-4 2.5%
1-5 0.9%
W2
2-0 4.1%
2-1 7.3%
2-2 6.6%
2-3 4.0%
2-4 1.8%
2-5 0.6%
W3
3-0 2.0%
3-1 3.6%
3-2 3.2%
3-3 1.9%
3-4 0.9%
3-5 0.3%
W4
4-0 0.7%
4-1 1.3%
4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.7%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
W5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.4%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(7.3%) 1-0(5.6%) 2-0(4.1%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing W=Home goals ↓   U=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Wolfsburg W Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Union Berlin W Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Wolfsburg W
Overall
7.6
Scoring
5.0
Defence
7.0
Union Berlin W
Overall
5.9
Scoring
9.0
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 34%
Home Win & BTTS No 14%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Away Win & BTTS No 11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 31%
Home Win & Under 2.5 17%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 23%
Away Win & Under 2.5 12%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
04.11.25
BUN: Union Berlin1
Wolfsburg4
10.08.25
CF: Wolfsburg0
Union Berlin2
08.10.17
POK: Union Berlin0
Wolfsburg6
Recent Form
Wolfsburg W
24.03.26
UWCL: Wolfsburg1
Lyon0
W
21.03.26
BUN: Hoffenheim0
Wolfsburg1
W
18.03.26
BUN: Jena0
Wolfsburg2
W
15.03.26
BUN: Wolfsburg2
Bayer Leverkusen1
W
11.03.26
POK: Wolfsburg1
Eintracht Frankfurt0
W
22.02.26
BUN: Bayern Munich4
Wolfsburg1
L
19.02.26
UWCL: Juventus0
Wolfsburg2
W
15.02.26
BUN: Wolfsburg1
SGS Essen1
D
12.02.26
UWCL: Wolfsburg2
Juventus2
D
02.02.26
BUN: Wolfsburg2
FC Köln1
W
Union Berlin W
23.03.26
BUN: Union Berlin4
Werder Bremen1
W
14.03.26
BUN: RB Leipzig2
Union Berlin2
D
20.02.26
BUN: Union Berlin2
FC Köln1
W
14.02.26
BUN: Freiburg1
Union Berlin1
D
08.02.26
BUN: Union Berlin1
Carl Zeiss Jena2
L
31.01.26
BUN: SGS Essen2
Union Berlin4
W
23.01.26
BUN: Union Berlin1
Bayer Leverkusen2
L
07.01.26
CF: Castellon0
Union Berlin8
W
20.12.25
BUN: 1. FC Nürnberg1
Union Berlin2
W
15.12.25
BUN: Union Berlin2
Eintracht Frankfurt2
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Sunday, 29th March 2026, Wolfsburg W host Union Berlin W in Bundesliga Women. Our analysis desk recommends Wolfsburg W to win as the standout selection.

Wolfsburg W arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Union Berlin W are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 3D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Wolfsburg W, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Union Berlin W's 1, with 0 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 33% of those meetings.

Our verdict: wolfsburg w to win at odds of 1.23 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Bundesliga Women game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.23. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 29 Mar 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Wolfsburg W vs Union Berlin W?
Our selection is 1 — Wolfsburg W to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 60%.
What is Wolfsburg W's current form?
Wolfsburg W have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Union Berlin W been performing recently?
Union Berlin W have recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Wolfsburg W lead with 2 wins versus Union Berlin W's 1, with 0 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 33%.
⚠️
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