Fixture Case File · Ref V
U

Union Berlin W

Home Side
L L W L D
3W 1D 6L → Holding Steady
VS
5:00 pm
Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin)
E
Eintracht Frankfurt W
Away Side
L D D W W
6W 3D 1L ▼ Trending Down
CAUTION
0%
Monday, 7th September 2026 Case Verdict
X2
Filing on Eintracht Frankfurt W to win or draw
Implied Prob86.2%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-86.2%Overpriced
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBU<<<<<B<<<<<<W<<<<<<<<E<<<<<<<<<F<<<<<<BE42F77504DFB2609072M2609079<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 7 Sep 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
0
Union Berlin W
1
Draws
2
Eintracht Frankfurt W
3
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
67%
BTTS
67%
Over 2.5
Neutral Insufficient H2H data.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Union Berlin W
Metric
Eintracht Frankfurt W
1.7
Goals For / Game
2.1
2
Goals Against / Game
0.9
10%
Clean Sheets
50%
3-1-6
W — D — L
6-3-1
Win Rate
30%
60%
3.4
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
E0
E1
E2
E3
E4
E5
U0
0-0 3.5%
0-1 7.2%
0-2 7.4%
0-3 5.0%
0-4 2.6%
0-5 1.1%
U1
1-0 4.6%
1-1 9.4%
1-2 9.6%
1-3 6.6%
1-4 3.4%
1-5 1.4%
U2
2-0 3.0%
2-1 6.1%
2-2 6.2%
2-3 4.3%
2-4 2.2%
2-5 0.9%
U3
3-0 1.3%
3-1 2.6%
3-2 2.7%
3-3 1.8%
3-4 1.0%
3-5 0.4%
U4
4-0 0.4%
4-1 0.9%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
U5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-2(9.6%) 1-1(9.4%) 0-2(7.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing U=Home goals ↓   E=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Union Berlin W
Overall
3.3
Scoring
5.7
Defence
3.3
Eintracht Frankfurt W
Overall
6.9
Scoring
7.0
Defence
7.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Home Win & BTTS No 12%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Away Win & BTTS No 25%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 14%
Home Win & Under 2.5 14%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 28%
Away Win & Under 2.5 28%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
17.05.26BUN
Eintracht Frankfurt W4
Union Berlin2
15.12.25BUN
Union Berlin W2
Eintracht Frankfurt2
22.11.24POK
Union Berlin W0
Eintracht Frankfurt2
Recent Form
Union Berlin W
29.08.26BUN
Freiburg W1
Union Berlin W0
L
21.08.26BUN
Union Berlin W1
Bayern Munich W4
L
15.08.26CF
PSG W1
Union Berlin W3
W
09.08.26CF
Union Berlin W0
Inter W1
L
25.07.26CF
Union Berlin W2
Hamburger SV W2
D
11.07.26CF
Potsdam W2
Union Berlin W6
W
17.05.26BUN
Eintracht Frankfurt W4
Union Berlin W2
L
10.05.26BUN
Union Berlin W0
Hoffenheim W2
L
01.05.26BUN
Hamburger SV W0
Union Berlin W1
W
22.04.26BUN
Union Berlin W2
Bayern Munich W3
L
Eintracht Frankfurt W
02.09.26CL
PSG W5
Eintracht Frankfurt W1
L
30.08.26BUN
Eintracht Frankfurt W1
1.FC Nurnberg W1
D
26.08.26CL
Eintracht Frankfurt W1
PSG W1
D
22.08.26BUN
Eintracht Frankfurt W2
Koln W0
W
16.08.26CF
OL Lyonnes W1
Eintracht Frankfurt W2
W
08.08.26CL
Eintracht Frankfurt W2
Malmo FF W0
W
05.08.26CL
Eintracht Frankfurt W8
Omonia W0
W
31.07.26CF
Eintracht Frankfurt W1
Strasbourg W0
W
25.07.26CF
Eintracht Frankfurt W0
Feyenoord W0
D
19.07.26CF
Eintracht Frankfurt W3
Sand W1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Monday, 7th September 2026, Union Berlin W host Eintracht Frankfurt W at Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin). Our analysis desk recommends Eintracht Frankfurt W to win or draw as the standout selection.

Union Berlin W arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Eintracht Frankfurt W are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 3D 1L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Union Berlin W, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Eintracht Frankfurt W's 2, with 1 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 67% of those meetings.

Our verdict: eintracht frankfurt w to win or draw at odds of 1.16 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Before any bet goes on, one question is worth asking: what exactly is this price paying me for? A bookmaker’s odds are sharp but not flawless. They blend a model, the public’s money, and a margin — and somewhere in that blend, gaps open up. This Unknown League fixture is a hunt for one of those gaps.

The hosts come in on 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses from their last 5 games, which is the anchor the market has wrapped its line around. We push past the anchor. Is this a home side currently converting their dominance into goals, grinding out narrow wins, or leaking results they ought to be banking? Each pattern carries a wildly different implication for what is likely at Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin), and only the recent run tells you which one applies.

The visitors answer with 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss from their last 5 games. The away record is the part casual bettors underweight most. A team quietly accumulating points on the road over recent weeks is a genuinely different animal from one whose seasonal away tally was banked early and has since dried up. We treat the recent away form as the live signal it is.

Weigh the two and the value crystallises. Our read is X2 at @1.16, a call the model rates at roughly 76%. Things get underway at 5:00 pm.

That is the play, and the thinking that produced it. We have broken down a full card of fixtures today — worth a browse before you settle on your final selections, because the smart slips are usually built from more than one good read.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 7 Sep 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Union Berlin W vs Eintracht Frankfurt W?
Our selection is X2 — Eintracht Frankfurt W to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.16.
What is Union Berlin W's current form?
Union Berlin W have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches.
How has Eintracht Frankfurt W been performing recently?
Eintracht Frankfurt W have recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Union Berlin W lead with 0 wins versus Eintracht Frankfurt W's 2, with 1 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
⚠️
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