WON Case WON Triglav 2-0 Jadran Dekani
Fixture Case File · Ref V
T

Triglav

Home Side
W W W W W
8W 2D 0L ▼ Trending Down
VS
2-0
J
Jadran Dekani
Away Side
D L D L W
8W 2D 0L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
59%
Wednesday, 6th May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Triglav to win
Triglav 50%
Draw 30%
Jadran Dekani 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob74.1%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-15.1%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBT<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<J<<<<<<D<<<<<<<<<95ECEF65D4DFB2608232M2608239<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 6 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Triglav to win
1.35
Under 2.5 Goals75% BTTS — No85% Triglav Clean Sheet70%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Triglav vs Jadran Dekani Competition: Slovenia 2 SNL Date: Wednesday, 6th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Triglav to win) Odds: 1.35 Confidence: 59% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (75%) Also: BTTS — No (85%) Also: Triglav Clean Sheet (70%) Ledger Ref: 95ECEF65D
Head to Head
Record
5
Triglav
3
Draws
2
Jadran Dekani
10
Meetings
2.8
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Neutral Triglav won 5 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Triglav
Metric
Jadran Dekani
2.1
Goals For / Game
0
0.3
Goals Against / Game
0
70%
Clean Sheets
0%
8-2-0
W — D — L
8-2-0
Win Rate
80%
80%
1.2
Avg Goals
40%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
15%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
J0
J1
J2
J3
J4
J5
T0
0-0 28.7%
0-1 5.7%
0-2 0.6%
0-3 0.0%
0-4 0.0%
0-5 0.0%
T1
1-0 30.1%
1-1 6.0%
1-2 0.6%
1-3 0.0%
1-4 0.0%
1-5 0.0%
T2
2-0 15.8%
2-1 3.2%
2-2 0.3%
2-3 0.0%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
T3
3-0 5.5%
3-1 1.1%
3-2 0.1%
3-3 0.0%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
T4
4-0 1.5%
4-1 0.3%
4-2 0.0%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
T5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(30.1%) 2-0(15.8%) 3-0(5.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing T=Home goals ↓   J=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Triglav Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Jadran Dekani Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Triglav
Overall
8.6
Scoring
7.0
Defence
9.0
Jadran Dekani
Overall
8.6
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Home Win & BTTS No 37%
Draw & BTTS Yes 2%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Away Win & BTTS No 38%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 11%
Home Win & Under 2.5 33%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 34%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
25.10.252L
Jadran Dekani3
Triglav4
12.05.252L
Jadran Dekani1
Triglav6
03.11.242L
Triglav1
Jadran Dekani0
18.05.242L
Triglav1
Jadran Dekani2
28.10.232L
Jadran Dekani3
Triglav1
13.05.232L
Triglav0
Jadran Dekani0
29.10.222L
Jadran Dekani0
Triglav0
12.03.222L
Jadran Dekani1
Triglav1
27.08.212L
Triglav1
Jadran Dekani0
16.09.202L
Jadran Dekani1
Triglav2
Recent Form
Triglav
30.04.262L
NK Jesenice0
Triglav3
W
24.04.262L
Triglav4
Krsko Posavje0
W
18.04.262L
ND Gorica0
Triglav1
W
11.04.262L
Triglav2
Dravinja1
W
03.04.262L
NK Krka0
Triglav2
W
27.03.262L
Triglav2
Rudar0
W
20.03.262L
Slovan Ljubljana1
Triglav2
W
14.03.262L
Triglav1
Ilirija1
D
08.03.262L
Triglav4
Grosuplje0
W
01.03.262L
Beltinci0
Triglav0
D
Jadran Dekani
30.04.262L
NK Jesenice0
Triglav3
W
24.04.262L
Triglav4
Krsko Posavje0
W
18.04.262L
ND Gorica0
Triglav1
W
11.04.262L
Triglav2
Dravinja1
W
03.04.262L
NK Krka0
Triglav2
W
27.03.262L
Triglav2
Rudar0
W
20.03.262L
Slovan Ljubljana1
Triglav2
W
14.03.262L
Triglav1
Ilirija1
D
08.03.262L
Triglav4
Grosuplje0
W
01.03.262L
Beltinci0
Triglav0
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Wednesday, 6th May 2026, Triglav host Jadran Dekani in Slovenia 2 SNL. Our analysis desk recommends Triglav to win as the standout selection.

Triglav arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Jadran Dekani are travelling well, with a record of 8W 2D 0L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Triglav, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Jadran Dekani's 2, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: triglav to win at odds of 1.35 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Slovenia 2 SNL game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.35. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 6 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Triglav vs Jadran Dekani?
Our selection is 1 — Triglav to win, priced at approximately 1.35. Tip confidence rating: 59%.
What is Triglav's current form?
Triglav have won 8, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Jadran Dekani been performing recently?
Jadran Dekani have recorded 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Triglav lead with 5 wins versus Jadran Dekani's 2, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
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