Fixture Case File · Ref V
T

Treaty United

Home Side
L D L W D
1W 3D 6L → Holding Steady
VS
PP
C
Cork City
Away Side
W D W W W
2W 3D 5L ▲ Trending Up
CAUTION
41%
Friday, 10th April 2026 Case Verdict
2
Filing on Cork City to win
Treaty United 20%
Draw 30%
Cork City 50%
H Fair Odds5
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob75.2%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-34.2%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBT<<<<<<U<<<<<<<<<<<<<<C<<<<C<<<<<<<<<<<ADD8A0F574DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 11 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
2 — Cork City to win
1.33
Under 2.5 Goals75% BTTS — No85%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Treaty United vs Cork City Competition: Ireland Division 1 Date: Friday, 10th April 2026 Pick: 2 (Cork City to win) Odds: 1.33 Confidence: 41% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (75%) Also: BTTS — No (85%) Ledger Ref: ADD8A0F57
Head to Head
Record
1
Treaty United
4
Draws
5
Cork City
10
Meetings
2.2
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Neutral Cork City won 5 of 10 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Treaty United
Metric
Cork City
0.8
Goals For / Game
0.1
1.7
Goals Against / Game
0
20%
Clean Sheets
10%
1-3-6
W — D — L
2-3-5
Win Rate
10%
20%
1.3
Avg Goals
30%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
15%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
T0
0-0 27.3%
0-1 24.5%
0-2 11.0%
0-3 3.3%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.1%
T1
1-0 10.9%
1-1 9.8%
1-2 4.4%
1-3 1.3%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
T2
2-0 2.2%
2-1 2.0%
2-2 0.9%
2-3 0.3%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
T3
3-0 0.3%
3-1 0.3%
3-2 0.1%
3-3 0.0%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
T4
4-0 0.0%
4-1 0.0%
4-2 0.0%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
T5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(24.5%) 0-2(11.0%) 1-2(4.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing T=Home goals ↓   C=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Treaty United Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Cork City Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Treaty United
Overall
1.9
Scoring
2.7
Defence
4.3
Cork City
Overall
2.9
Scoring
0.3
Defence
10.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 3%
Home Win & BTTS No 14%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 43%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 5%
Away Win & BTTS No 28%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 4%
Home Win & Under 2.5 13%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 38%
Away Win & Over 2.5 8%
Away Win & Under 2.5 25%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
13.02.26
First Division: Cork City1
Treaty United0
18.01.25
Friendly: Cork City2
Treaty United1
04.10.24
First Division: Cork City1
Treaty United1
02.08.24
First Division: Treaty United1
Cork City1
24.05.24
First Division: Cork City1
Treaty United1
22.03.24
First Division: Treaty United0
Cork City0
22.07.23
FAI Cup: Treaty United0
Cork City2
21.01.23
Friendly: Cork City3
Treaty United0
12.08.22
First Division: Cork City0
Treaty United2
27.06.22
First Division: Treaty United0
Cork City5
Recent Form
Treaty United
06.04.26
First Division: Cobh Ramblers4
Treaty United0
L
03.04.26
First Division: Treaty United0
Longford Town0
D
27.03.26
First Division: Wexford FC3
Treaty United2
L
20.03.26
First Division: Treaty United2
Athlone Town0
W
13.03.26
First Division: Finn Harps2
Treaty United2
D
06.03.26
First Division: Treaty United2
Kerry FC2
D
27.02.26
First Division: UCD Dublin1
Treaty United0
L
20.02.26
First Division: Treaty United0
Bray Wanderers1
L
13.02.26
First Division: Cork City1
Treaty United0
L
24.01.26
Friendly: Shamrock Rovers3
Treaty United0
L
Cork City
06.04.26
First Division: Cobh Ramblers4
Treaty United0
L
03.04.26
First Division: Treaty United0
Longford Town0
D
27.03.26
First Division: Wexford FC3
Treaty United2
L
20.03.26
First Division: Treaty United2
Athlone Town0
W
13.03.26
First Division: Finn Harps2
Treaty United2
D
06.03.26
First Division: Treaty United2
Kerry FC2
D
27.02.26
First Division: UCD Dublin1
Treaty United0
L
20.02.26
First Division: Treaty United0
Bray Wanderers1
L
13.02.26
First Division: Cork City1
Treaty United0
L
24.01.26
Friendly: Shamrock Rovers3
Treaty United0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Friday, 10th April 2026, Treaty United host Cork City in Ireland Division 1. Our analysis desk recommends Cork City to win as the standout selection.

Treaty United arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Cork City are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 3D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Treaty United, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Cork City's 5, with 4 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: cork city to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Ireland Division 1 game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 2, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.33. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 11 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Treaty United vs Cork City?
Our selection is 2 — Cork City to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 41%.
What is Treaty United's current form?
Treaty United have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches.
How has Cork City been performing recently?
Cork City have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Treaty United lead with 1 wins versus Cork City's 5, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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