WON Case WON Traiskirchen 2-0 Kremser
Fixture Case File · Ref V
T

Traiskirchen

Home Side
L W L D W
5W 2D 3L → Holding Steady
VS
2-0
6:30 pm
N/A
K
Kremser
Away Side
W W L L D
2W 2D 6L → Holding Steady
CASE VERIFIED
85%
Tuesday, 22nd September 2026 Case Verdict
Over 1.5
Filing on over 1.5 goals
Implied Prob87.7%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-2.7%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBT<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<K<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<C3E9B65954DFB2609222M2609229<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 22 Sep 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.14
Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Traiskirchen vs Kremser Competition: Austria Regionalliga East Date: Tuesday, 22nd September 2026 KO: 6:30 pm Pick: Over 1.5 (over 1.5 goals) Odds: 1.14 Confidence: 85% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Ledger Ref: C3E9B6595
Head to Head
Record
2
Traiskirchen
4
Draws
4
Kremser
10
Meetings
3.3
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Over 1.5 in 70% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Traiskirchen
Metric
Kremser
2.3
Goals For / Game
1
2.2
Goals Against / Game
1.5
20%
Clean Sheets
10%
5-2-3
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate
50%
20%
3.5
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
K0
K1
K2
K3
K4
K5
T0
0-0 3.0%
0-1 4.8%
0-2 3.9%
0-3 2.1%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.3%
T1
1-0 5.7%
1-1 9.2%
1-2 7.3%
1-3 3.9%
1-4 1.6%
1-5 0.5%
T2
2-0 5.5%
2-1 8.7%
2-2 7.0%
2-3 3.7%
2-4 1.5%
2-5 0.5%
T3
3-0 3.5%
3-1 5.5%
3-2 4.4%
3-3 2.4%
3-4 0.9%
3-5 0.3%
T4
4-0 1.6%
4-1 2.6%
4-2 2.1%
4-3 1.1%
4-4 0.5%
4-5 0.1%
T5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 1-1(9.2%) 2-1(8.7%) 1-2(7.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing T=Home goals ↓   K=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Traiskirchen
Overall
5.6
Scoring
7.7
Defence
2.7
Kremser
Overall
2.6
Scoring
3.3
Defence
5.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 31%
Home Win & BTTS No 25%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 31%
Home Win & Under 2.5 25%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 10%
Away Win & Over 2.5 12%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
07.04.26RL
Traiskirchen0
Kremser1
19.09.25RL
Kremser3
Traiskirchen3
23.05.25RL
Traiskirchen3
Kremser2
25.10.24RL
Kremser5
Traiskirchen1
10.05.24RL
Traiskirchen2
Kremser2
13.10.23RL
Kremser2
Traiskirchen1
27.06.23CF
Kremser2
Traiskirchen2
11.11.22RL
Kremser0
Traiskirchen1
29.07.22RL
Traiskirchen1
Kremser2
29.04.164L
Traiskirchen0
Kremser0
Recent Form
Traiskirchen
18.09.26RL
Traiskirchen1
Marchfeld3
L
11.09.26RL
Parndorf1
Traiskirchen3
W
05.09.26CUP
Traiskirchen0
Austria Vienna6
L
28.08.26RL
SV Donau1
Traiskirchen1
D
21.08.26RL
Traiskirchen5
Leobendorf4
W
15.08.26RL
Wienerberger3
Traiskirchen4
W
07.08.26RL
Traiskirchen0
Donaufeld Wien1
L
31.07.26RL
Warth3
Traiskirchen3
D
24.07.26CUP
Traiskirchen4
Bleiburg0
W
02.07.26CF
Leithaprodersdorf0
Traiskirchen2
W
Kremser
18.09.26RL
Favoritner0
Kremser3
W
11.09.26RL
Kremser3
SV Oberwart1
W
28.08.26RL
Kremser0
Horn1
L
21.08.26RL
Marchfeld3
Kremser1
L
14.08.26RL
Kremser1
Parndorf1
D
07.08.26RL
Gloggnitz3
Kremser1
L
31.07.26RL
SV Donau1
Kremser1
D
25.07.26CUP
Kremser0
A. Lustenau1
L
17.07.26CF
Kremser0
Amstetten2
L
03.07.26CF
Kremser0
First Vienna2
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 22nd September 2026, Traiskirchen host Kremser at N/A in Austria Regionalliga East. Our analysis desk recommends over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

Traiskirchen arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Kremser are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 2D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Traiskirchen, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Kremser's 4, with 4 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.14 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Before any bet goes on, one question is worth asking: what exactly is this price paying me for? A bookmaker’s odds are sharp but not flawless. They blend a model, the public’s money, and a margin — and somewhere in that blend, gaps open up. This Austria Regionalliga East fixture is a hunt for one of those gaps.

The hosts come in on 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games, which is the anchor the market has wrapped its line around. We push past the anchor. Is this a home side currently converting their dominance into goals, grinding out narrow wins, or leaking results they ought to be banking? Each pattern carries a wildly different implication for what is likely at N/A, and only the recent run tells you which one applies.

The visitors answer with 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games. The away record is the part casual bettors underweight most. A team quietly accumulating points on the road over recent weeks is a genuinely different animal from one whose seasonal away tally was banked early and has since dried up. We treat the recent away form as the live signal it is.

Weigh the two and the value crystallises. Our read is Over 1.5 at @1.14, a call the model rates at roughly around 10 in 10. Things get underway at 6:30 pm.

That is the play, and the thinking that produced it. We have broken down a full card of fixtures today — worth a browse before you settle on your final selections, because the smart slips are usually built from more than one good read.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 22 Sep 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Traiskirchen vs Kremser?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.14. Tip confidence rating: 85%.
What is Traiskirchen's current form?
Traiskirchen have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Kremser been performing recently?
Kremser have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Traiskirchen lead with 2 wins versus Kremser's 4, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
⚠️
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