WON Case WON Shamrock Rovers 1-0 Waterford
Fixture Case File · Ref V
S

Shamrock Rovers

Home Side
L W W W D
6W 3D 1L ▲ Trending Up
VS
1-0
W
Waterford
Away Side
D L D D L
0W 4D 6L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
58%
Friday, 1st May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Shamrock Rovers to win
Shamrock Rovers 50%
Draw 30%
Waterford 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob76.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-18.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBS<<<<<<<<R<<<<<<<<<<<<W<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<1CB46A2C14DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 1 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Shamrock Rovers to win
1.31
Under 2.5 Goals70%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford Competition: Ger. Regionalliga Bayern Date: Friday, 1st May 2026 Pick: 1 (Shamrock Rovers to win) Odds: 1.31 Confidence: 58% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (70%) Ledger Ref: 1CB46A2C1
Head to Head
Record
7
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
2
Waterford
10
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Shamrock Rovers won 7 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Shamrock Rovers
Metric
Waterford
1.4
Goals For / Game
0.8
0.7
Goals Against / Game
2.1
50%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-3-1
W — D — L
0-4-6
Win Rate
60%
0%
2.5
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
W0
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
S0
0-0 8.2%
0-1 6.2%
0-2 2.3%
0-3 0.6%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
S1
1-0 14.4%
1-1 10.8%
1-2 4.0%
1-3 1.0%
1-4 0.2%
1-5 0.0%
S2
2-0 12.6%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 3.5%
2-3 0.9%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
S3
3-0 7.3%
3-1 5.5%
3-2 2.1%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
S4
4-0 3.2%
4-1 2.4%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 1.1%
5-1 0.8%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(14.4%) 2-0(12.6%) 2-1(9.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing S=Home goals ↓   W=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Shamrock Rovers Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Waterford Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Shamrock Rovers
Overall
6.9
Scoring
4.7
Defence
7.7
Waterford
Overall
1.2
Scoring
2.7
Defence
3.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 28%
Home Win & BTTS No 35%
Draw & BTTS Yes 17%
Draw & BTTS No 20%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 19%
Home Win & Under 2.5 44%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 26%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
03.04.26PD
Waterford1
Shamrock Rovers1
22.09.25PD
Waterford1
Shamrock Rovers2
27.06.25PD
Shamrock Rovers1
Waterford0
16.05.25PD
Waterford1
Shamrock Rovers3
11.04.25PD
Shamrock Rovers2
Waterford0
01.11.24PD
Shamrock Rovers2
Waterford1
02.08.24PD
Waterford1
Shamrock Rovers2
06.05.24PD
Shamrock Rovers1
Waterford3
01.04.24PD
Waterford1
Shamrock Rovers2
04.02.23CF
Shamrock Rovers0
Waterford2
Recent Form
Shamrock Rovers
24.04.26PD
Derry City1
Shamrock Rovers0
L
17.04.26PD
Shamrock Rovers2
Bohemians1
W
10.04.26PD
St. Patricks0
Shamrock Rovers1
W
06.04.26PD
Shamrock Rovers3
Shelbourne2
W
03.04.26PD
Waterford1
Shamrock Rovers1
D
20.03.26PD
Shamrock Rovers2
Galway0
W
16.03.26PD
Drogheda0
Shamrock Rovers0
D
13.03.26PD
Sligo Rovers0
Shamrock Rovers2
W
09.03.26PD
Shelbourne2
Shamrock Rovers2
D
06.03.26PD
Shamrock Rovers1
Derry City0
W
Waterford
24.04.26PD
Waterford1
Galway1
D
18.04.26PD
Sligo Rovers2
Waterford0
L
06.04.26PD
Bohemians1
Waterford1
D
03.04.26PD
Waterford1
Shamrock Rovers1
D
20.03.26PD
Waterford0
St. Patricks2
L
16.03.26PD
Galway4
Waterford3
L
13.03.26PD
Dundalk5
Waterford0
L
06.03.26PD
Waterford0
Bohemians1
L
27.02.26PD
Derry City4
Waterford2
L
20.02.26PD
Waterford0
Sligo Rovers0
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Friday, 1st May 2026, Shamrock Rovers host Waterford in Ger. Regionalliga Bayern. Our analysis desk recommends Shamrock Rovers to win as the standout selection.

Shamrock Rovers arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Waterford are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 4D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Shamrock Rovers, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Waterford's 2, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: shamrock rovers to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Ger. Regionalliga Bayern game is a perfect chance to do exactly that.

Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass. We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter.

Then we turn our attention to the away side. We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important.

Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage. Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.31.

Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over. The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 1 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Our selection is 1 — Shamrock Rovers to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 58%.
What is Shamrock Rovers's current form?
Shamrock Rovers have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Waterford been performing recently?
Waterford have recorded 0 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Shamrock Rovers lead with 7 wins versus Waterford's 2, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
⚠️
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