WON Case WON Schweinfurt 1-3 RW Essen
Fixture Case File · Ref V
S

Schweinfurt

Home Side
L W W L W
3W 3D 4L ▼ Trending Down
VS
1-3
R
RW Essen
Away Side
W W W W W
7W 1D 2L ▼ Trending Down
CAUTION
0%
Tuesday, 7th April 2026 Case Verdict
X2
Filing on RW Essen to win or draw
Implied Prob90.1%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-90.1%Overpriced
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBS<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<RW<E<<<<<<<<<<<<<0D21CC8144DFB2607262M2607269<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 7 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
X2 — RW Essen to win or draw
1.11
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Schweinfurt vs RW Essen Competition: Bundesliga 3 Date: Tuesday, 7th April 2026 Pick: X2 (RW Essen to win or draw) Odds: 1.11 Confidence: 0% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Ledger Ref: 0D21CC814
Head to Head
Record
0
Schweinfurt
0
Draws
3
RW Essen
3
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
33%
BTTS
67%
Over 2.5
Neutral Insufficient H2H data.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Schweinfurt
Metric
RW Essen
1.3
Goals For / Game
2.4
1.9
Goals Against / Game
1.6
10%
Clean Sheets
30%
3-3-4
W — D — L
7-1-2
Win Rate
30%
70%
3.6
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
R0
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
S0
0-0 2.7%
0-1 5.9%
0-2 6.3%
0-3 4.5%
0-4 2.4%
0-5 1.1%
S1
1-0 4.0%
1-1 8.5%
1-2 9.2%
1-3 6.6%
1-4 3.5%
1-5 1.5%
S2
2-0 2.9%
2-1 6.2%
2-2 6.6%
2-3 4.8%
2-4 2.6%
2-5 1.1%
S3
3-0 1.4%
3-1 3.0%
3-2 3.2%
3-3 2.3%
3-4 1.2%
3-5 0.5%
S4
4-0 0.5%
4-1 1.1%
4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.5%
4-5 0.2%
S5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 1-2(9.2%) 1-1(8.5%) 2-2(6.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing S=Home goals ↓   R=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Schweinfurt
Overall
3.9
Scoring
4.3
Defence
3.7
RW Essen
Overall
7.3
Scoring
8.0
Defence
4.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Home Win & BTTS No 10%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 35%
Away Win & BTTS No 23%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 18%
Home Win & Under 2.5 8%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 41%
Away Win & Under 2.5 17%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
02.11.25
3. Liga: RW Essen2
Schweinfurt1
18.05.91
2. BUND: Schweinfurt0
RW Essen2
20.10.90
2. BUND: RW Essen4
Schweinfurt0
Recent Form
Schweinfurt
04.04.26
3. Liga: VfL Osnabrück4
Schweinfurt0
L
26.03.26
Friendly: Schweinfurt2
Schalke 040
W
21.03.26
3. Liga: Schweinfurt3
Stuttgart II1
W
15.03.26
3. Liga: Verl4
Schweinfurt0
L
07.03.26
3. Liga: Schweinfurt3
Ulm2
W
04.03.26
3. Liga: Alemannia Aachen1
Schweinfurt0
L
01.03.26
3. Liga: Schweinfurt2
Saarbrücken2
D
22.02.26
Friendly: Schweinfurt1
Bayreuth1
D
21.02.26
3. Liga: Duisburg3
Schweinfurt1
L
15.02.26
3. Liga: Schweinfurt1
Ingolstadt1
D
RW Essen
04.04.26
3. Liga: RW Essen1
MSV Duisburg0
W
27.03.26
Friendly: VfL Bochum0
RW Essen4
W
22.03.26
3. Liga: Viktoria Köln1
RW Essen2
W
14.03.26
3. Liga: RW Essen4
Erzgebirge Aue2
W
07.03.26
3. Liga: Hoffenheim II2
RW Essen4
W
04.03.26
3. Liga: RW Essen1
Waldhof Mannheim0
W
28.02.26
3. Liga: Hansa Rostock3
RW Essen2
L
21.02.26
3. Liga: VfL Osnabrück3
RW Essen0
L
14.02.26
3. Liga: RW Essen3
Jahn Regensburg2
W
08.02.26
3. Liga: Alemannia Aachen3
RW Essen3
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 7th April 2026, Schweinfurt host RW Essen in Bundesliga 3. Our analysis desk recommends RW Essen to win or draw as the standout selection.

Schweinfurt arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

RW Essen are travelling well, with a record of 7W 1D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Schweinfurt, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to RW Essen's 3, with 0 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 33% of those meetings.

Our verdict: rw essen to win or draw at odds of 1.11 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Bundesliga 3 game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is X2, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.11. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 7 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Schweinfurt vs RW Essen?
Our selection is X2 — RW Essen to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.11.
What is Schweinfurt's current form?
Schweinfurt have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has RW Essen been performing recently?
RW Essen have recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Schweinfurt lead with 0 wins versus RW Essen's 3, with 0 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 33%.
⚠️
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