Fixture Case File · Ref V
R

Radnik Bijeljina

Home Side
L L D L L
1W 3D 6L ▼ Trending Down
VS
8:00 pm
Gradski stadion Bijeljina (Bijeljina)
B
Borac Banja Luka
Away Side
W W W W W
6W 2D 2L ▼ Trending Down
CASE VERIFIED
71%
Sunday, 30th August 2026 Case Verdict
2
Filing on Borac Banja Luka to win
Implied Prob65.8%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge+5.2%Value detected
Kelly %15.2%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBR<<<<<<B<<<<<<<<<<<<<<B<<<<<B<<<<<L<<<<396FF59D04DFB2608302M2608309<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 30 Aug 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
1
Radnik Bijeljina
2
Draws
7
Borac Banja Luka
10
Meetings
2.2
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
20%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Borac Banja Luka won 7 of 10 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Radnik Bijeljina
Metric
Borac Banja Luka
0.3
Goals For / Game
2
1.7
Goals Against / Game
1.3
40%
Clean Sheets
30%
1-3-6
W — D — L
6-2-2
Win Rate
10%
60%
2.7
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
R0
0-0 7.1%
0-1 13.1%
0-2 12.1%
0-3 7.5%
0-4 3.5%
0-5 1.3%
R1
1-0 5.7%
1-1 10.5%
1-2 9.7%
1-3 6.0%
1-4 2.8%
1-5 1.0%
R2
2-0 2.3%
2-1 4.2%
2-2 3.9%
2-3 2.4%
2-4 1.1%
2-5 0.4%
R3
3-0 0.6%
3-1 1.1%
3-2 1.0%
3-3 0.6%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
R4
4-0 0.1%
4-1 0.2%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
R5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(13.1%) 0-2(12.1%) 1-2(9.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing R=Home goals ↓   B=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Radnik Bijeljina
Overall
1.9
Scoring
1.0
Defence
4.3
Borac Banja Luka
Overall
6.6
Scoring
6.7
Defence
5.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 4%
Home Win & BTTS No 7%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 16%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Away Win & BTTS No 38%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 6%
Home Win & Under 2.5 5%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 12%
Away Win & Over 2.5 35%
Away Win & Under 2.5 28%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
22.05.26LIG
Radnik Bijeljina0
Borac Banja Luka0
21.03.26LIG
Borac Banja Luka1
Radnik Bijeljina0
03.12.25LIG
Radnik Bijeljina0
Borac Banja Luka1
20.09.25LIG
Borac Banja Luka5
Radnik Bijeljina1
18.05.25LIG
Radnik Bijeljina1
Borac Banja Luka0
01.03.25LIG
Radnik Bijeljina0
Borac Banja Luka1
29.09.24LIG
Borac Banja Luka2
Radnik Bijeljina0
23.04.22LIG
Borac Banja Luka1
Radnik Bijeljina0
28.11.21LIG
Radnik Bijeljina1
Borac Banja Luka1
29.08.21LIG
Borac Banja Luka4
Radnik Bijeljina3
Recent Form
Radnik Bijeljina
22.08.26LIG
Siroki Brijeg2
Radnik Bijeljina1
L
16.08.26LIG
Radnik Bijeljina1
Zrinjski5
L
08.08.26LIG
FK Sarajevo0
Radnik Bijeljina0
D
18.07.26CF
Ujpest2
Radnik Bijeljina0
L
14.07.26CF
Radnik Bijeljina0
Akhmat Grozny3
L
11.07.26CF
Napredak0
Radnik Bijeljina1
W
08.07.26CF
Zemun1
Radnik Bijeljina0
L
25.05.26LIG
Siroki Brijeg4
Radnik Bijeljina0
L
22.05.26LIG
Radnik Bijeljina0
Borac Banja Luka0
D
16.05.26LIG
Sloga Meridian0
Radnik Bijeljina0
D
Borac Banja Luka
27.08.26UECL
Borac Banja Luka3
Vikingur Reykjavik1
W
23.08.26LIG
Borac Banja Luka2
Celik Zenica0
W
20.08.26UECL
Vikingur Reykjavik1
Borac Banja Luka3
W
13.08.26UECL
ML Vitebsk2
Borac Banja Luka (2-4)1
09.08.26LIG
Borac Banja Luka3
Velez Mostar1
W
06.08.26UECL
Borac Banja Luka1
ML Vitebsk0
W
30.07.26UECL
Petrocub3
Borac Banja Luka3
D
23.07.26UECL
Borac Banja Luka3
Petrocub0
W
14.07.26CL
Levski Sofia4
Borac Banja Luka0
L
07.07.26CL
Borac Banja Luka1
Levski Sofia1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Sunday, 30th August 2026, Radnik Bijeljina host Borac Banja Luka at Gradski stadion Bijeljina (Bijeljina). Our analysis desk recommends Borac Banja Luka to win as the standout selection.

Radnik Bijeljina arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Borac Banja Luka are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 2D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Radnik Bijeljina, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Borac Banja Luka's 7, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: borac banja luka to win at odds of 1.52 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Before any bet goes on, one question is worth asking: what exactly is this price paying me for? A bookmaker’s odds are sharp but not flawless. They blend a model, the public’s money, and a margin — and somewhere in that blend, gaps open up. This Unknown League fixture is a hunt for one of those gaps.

The hosts come in on 1 draw, 4 losses from their last 5 games, which is the anchor the market has wrapped its line around. We push past the anchor. Is this a home side currently converting their dominance into goals, grinding out narrow wins, or leaking results they ought to be banking? Each pattern carries a wildly different implication for what is likely at Gradski stadion Bijeljina (Bijeljina), and only the recent run tells you which one applies.

The visitors answer with 5 wins from their last 5 games. The away record is the part casual bettors underweight most. A team quietly accumulating points on the road over recent weeks is a genuinely different animal from one whose seasonal away tally was banked early and has since dried up. We treat the recent away form as the live signal it is.

Weigh the two and the value crystallises. Our read is 2 at @1.52, a call the model rates at roughly 20%. Things get underway at 8:00 pm.

That is the play, and the thinking that produced it. We have broken down a full card of fixtures today — worth a browse before you settle on your final selections, because the smart slips are usually built from more than one good read.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 30 Aug 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Radnik Bijeljina vs Borac Banja Luka?
Our selection is 2 — Borac Banja Luka to win, priced at approximately 1.52. Tip confidence rating: 71%.
What is Radnik Bijeljina's current form?
Radnik Bijeljina have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches.
How has Borac Banja Luka been performing recently?
Borac Banja Luka have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Radnik Bijeljina lead with 1 wins versus Borac Banja Luka's 7, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
⚠️
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