WON Case WON Oran 1-0 ASO Chlef
Fixture Case File · Ref V
O

Oran

Home Side
W L W W W
7W 1D 2L → Holding Steady
VS
1-0
A
ASO Chlef
Away Side
W L W L W
5W 1D 4L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
46%
Thursday, 7th May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Oran to win
Oran 50%
Draw 30%
ASO Chlef 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob70.9%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-24.9%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBO<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<ASO<C<<<<<<<<<<<<4874E1F364DFB2608082M2608089<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 7 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
1
Oran
5
Draws
4
ASO Chlef
10
Meetings
1.2
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
10%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Oran won 1 of the last 10 meetings (5 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Oran
Metric
ASO Chlef
1.3
Goals For / Game
0.9
1
Goals Against / Game
0.9
30%
Clean Sheets
40%
7-1-2
W — D — L
5-1-4
Win Rate
70%
50%
2.1
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
O0
0-0 12.9%
0-1 12.2%
0-2 5.8%
0-3 1.8%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
O1
1-0 14.2%
1-1 13.5%
1-2 6.4%
1-3 2.0%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
O2
2-0 7.8%
2-1 7.4%
2-2 3.5%
2-3 1.1%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
O3
3-0 2.9%
3-1 2.7%
3-2 1.3%
3-3 0.4%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
O4
4-0 0.8%
4-1 0.8%
4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
O5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(14.2%) 2-0(7.8%) 2-1(7.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing O=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Oran Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
ASO Chlef Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Oran
Overall
7.3
Scoring
4.3
Defence
6.7
ASO Chlef
Overall
5.3
Scoring
3.0
Defence
7.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 24%
Home Win & BTTS No 30%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Away Win & BTTS No 21%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 24%
Home Win & Under 2.5 30%
Draw & Over 2.5 4%
Draw & Under 2.5 4%
Away Win & Over 2.5 17%
Away Win & Under 2.5 21%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
18.12.25DIV
ASO Chlef1
Oran0
25.02.25DIV
ASO Chlef1
Oran0
04.10.24DIV
Oran0
ASO Chlef0
09.02.24DIV
Oran1
ASO Chlef1
15.09.23DIV
ASO Chlef2
Oran0
11.03.23DIV
ASO Chlef2
Oran1
17.09.22DIV
Oran0
ASO Chlef0
07.05.22DIV
ASO Chlef1
Oran1
07.01.22DIV
Oran1
ASO Chlef0
01.07.21DIV
ASO Chlef0
Oran0
Recent Form
Oran
29.04.26DIV
Kabylie1
Oran2
W
17.04.26DIV
ES Setif3
Oran0
L
09.04.26DIV
Oran2
Rouisset1
W
03.04.26DIV
Constantine0
Oran1
W
17.03.26DIV
Oran2
El Bayadh0
W
13.03.26DIV
Saoura2
Oran0
L
06.03.26DIV
Oran2
Khenchela1
W
27.02.26DIV
Paradou1
Oran2
W
20.02.26DIV
Oran2
MC Alger1
W
07.02.26DIV
Mostaganem0
Oran0
D
ASO Chlef
17.04.26DIV
ASO Chlef1
Olympique Akbou0
W
10.04.26DIV
Ben Aknoun2
ASO Chlef1
L
05.04.26DIV
ASO Chlef2
USM Alger1
W
18.03.26DIV
CR Belouizdad2
ASO Chlef1
L
13.03.26DIV
ASO Chlef1
Mostaganem0
W
06.03.26DIV
ASO Chlef1
ES Setif0
W
28.02.26DIV
Rouisset1
ASO Chlef1
D
20.02.26DIV
ASO Chlef0
Constantine2
L
13.02.26DIV
El Bayadh0
ASO Chlef1
W
08.02.26DIV
ASO Chlef0
Saoura1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Thursday, 7th May 2026, Oran host ASO Chlef in Algeria Ligue 1. Our analysis desk recommends Oran to win as the standout selection.

Oran arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

ASO Chlef are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 1D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Oran, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to ASO Chlef's 4, with 5 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: oran to win at odds of 1.41 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Algeria Ligue 1 game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.41. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 7 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Oran vs ASO Chlef?
Our selection is 1 — Oran to win, priced at approximately 1.41. Tip confidence rating: 46%.
What is Oran's current form?
Oran have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has ASO Chlef been performing recently?
ASO Chlef have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Oran lead with 1 wins versus ASO Chlef's 4, with 5 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
⚠️
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