WON Case WON Legia II 3-0 Plock II
Fixture Case File · Ref V
L

Legia II

Home Side
W D W W W
8W 1D 1L ▼ Trending Down
VS
3-0
P
Plock II
Away Side
W L W D W
6W 3D 1L → Holding Steady
CASE VERIFIED
68%
Wednesday, 15th April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Legia II to win
Legia II 50%
Draw 30%
Plock II 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob75.8%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-7.8%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBL<<<<<II<<<<<<<<<<<<<<P<<<<<II<<<<<<<<<F1A482E254DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 15 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Legia II to win
1.32
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals80% BTTS — Yes70%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Legia II vs Plock II Competition: Poland III Liga Date: Wednesday, 15th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Legia II to win) Odds: 1.32 Confidence: 68% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Also: BTTS — Yes (70%) Ledger Ref: F1A482E25
Head to Head
Record
4
Legia II
0
Draws
0
Plock II
4
Meetings
3.3
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Legia II won 4 of the last 4 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Legia II
Metric
Plock II
1.9
Goals For / Game
1.7
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.5
30%
Clean Sheets
20%
8-1-1
W — D — L
6-3-1
Win Rate
80%
60%
3
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
L0
0-0 5.0%
0-1 6.5%
0-2 4.2%
0-3 1.8%
0-4 0.6%
0-5 0.2%
L1
1-0 8.5%
1-1 11.0%
1-2 7.2%
1-3 3.1%
1-4 1.0%
1-5 0.3%
L2
2-0 7.2%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 6.1%
2-3 2.6%
2-4 0.9%
2-5 0.2%
L3
3-0 4.1%
3-1 5.3%
3-2 3.4%
3-3 1.5%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
L4
4-0 1.7%
4-1 2.3%
4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
L5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 0.8%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.4%) 1-0(8.5%) 2-0(7.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing L=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Legia II Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Plock II Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Legia II
Overall
8.3
Scoring
6.3
Defence
7.0
Plock II
Overall
6.9
Scoring
5.7
Defence
5.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 35%
Home Win & BTTS No 15%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Away Win & BTTS No 11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 15%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 4%
Away Win & Over 2.5 26%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
17.09.25III Liga
Plock II1
Legia II2
11.05.25III Liga
Plock II0
Legia II3
30.10.24III Liga
Legia II3
Plock II2
27.01.22Club Friendly
Legia II2
Plock II0
Recent Form
Legia II
12.04.26III Liga
Olimpia Elblag1
Legia II2
W
04.04.26III Liga
Legia II1
Warta Sieradz1
D
22.03.26III Liga
Jagiellonia II0
Legia II1
W
14.03.26III Liga
Legia II4
Wasilkow1
W
07.03.26III Liga
Legia II2
GKS Belchatow0
W
01.03.26III Liga
Swit Mazowiecki0
Legia II1
W
21.02.26Club Friendly
Legia II3
Skra1
W
14.02.26Club Friendly
Legia II2
Zawisza1
W
07.02.26Club Friendly
Warta Poznan3
Legia II1
L
24.01.26Club Friendly
Legia II2
Cracovia II1
W
Plock II
11.04.26III Liga
Zabki0
Plock II1
W
03.04.26III Liga
Plock II0
Jagiellonia II4
L
25.03.26III Liga
Biala Piska1
Plock II2
W
21.03.26III Liga
Plock II2
Suwalki2
D
14.03.26III Liga
LKS Lomza1
Plock II2
W
07.03.26III Liga
Plock II2
Mlawa1
W
28.02.26III Liga
Plock II0
Bron Radom0
D
31.01.26Club Friendly
Elana Torun2
Plock II2
D
22.11.25III Liga
Plock II2
Troszyn1
W
15.11.25III Liga
GKS Belchatow3
Plock II4
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Wednesday, 15th April 2026, Legia II host Plock II in Poland III Liga. Our analysis desk recommends Legia II to win as the standout selection.

Legia II arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Plock II are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 3D 1L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Legia II, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Plock II's 0, with 0 draws from 4 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: legia ii to win at odds of 1.32 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Poland III Liga game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.32. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 15 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Legia II vs Plock II?
Our selection is 1 — Legia II to win, priced at approximately 1.32. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Legia II's current form?
Legia II have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Plock II been performing recently?
Plock II have recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Legia II lead with 4 wins versus Plock II's 0, with 0 draws across 4 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
Bet Responsibly. DailyForebet provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.
18+Betting carries risk: debt, isolation, dependency. Predictions are for entertainment and informational purposes only, not financial advice.