LOST Case LOST Herd 0-2 Aalesund 2
Fixture Case File · Ref V
H

Herd

Home Side
W W W L W
5W 1D 4L ▼ Trending Down
VS
0-2
A
Aalesund 2
Away Side
L D L L L
0W 2D 8L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
54%
Tuesday, 26th May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Herd to win
Herd 60%
Draw 20%
Aalesund 2 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob77.5%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-23.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBH<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<A<<<<<<<<2<<<<<<<E97A99B8E4DFB2609112M2609119<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 27 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Herd to win
1.29
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Herd vs Aalesund 2 Competition: Norway Div 3 G2 Date: Tuesday, 26th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Herd to win) Odds: 1.29 Confidence: 54% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Ledger Ref: E97A99B8E
Head to Head
Record
3
Herd
1
Draws
2
Aalesund 2
6
Meetings
3.3
Avg Goals
67%
BTTS
83%
Over 2.5
Neutral Herd won 3 of the last 6 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Herd
Metric
Aalesund 2
1.9
Goals For / Game
1.3
1.7
Goals Against / Game
3.4
20%
Clean Sheets
0%
5-1-4
W — D — L
0-2-8
Win Rate
50%
0%
4.2
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
H0
0-0 1.6%
0-1 2.4%
0-2 1.8%
0-3 0.9%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
H1
1-0 4.2%
1-1 6.3%
1-2 4.7%
1-3 2.4%
1-4 0.9%
1-5 0.3%
H2
2-0 5.5%
2-1 8.3%
2-2 6.2%
2-3 3.1%
2-4 1.2%
2-5 0.4%
H3
3-0 4.9%
3-1 7.3%
3-2 5.5%
3-3 2.8%
3-4 1.0%
3-5 0.3%
H4
4-0 3.2%
4-1 4.9%
4-2 3.6%
4-3 1.8%
4-4 0.7%
4-5 0.2%
H5
5-0 1.7%
5-1 2.6%
5-2 1.9%
5-3 1.0%
5-4 0.4%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 2-1(8.3%) 3-1(7.3%) 2-0(5.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing H=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Herd Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Aalesund 2 Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Herd
Overall
5.3
Scoring
6.3
Defence
4.3
Aalesund 2
Overall
0.6
Scoring
4.3
Defence
0.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 50%
Home Win & BTTS No 27%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 62%
Home Win & Under 2.5 15%
Draw & Over 2.5 18%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
30.09.19D3
Herd0
Aalesund 23
08.06.19D3
Aalesund 21
Herd2
07.10.17DIV
Aalesund 21
Herd4
26.06.17DIV
Herd3
Aalesund 21
01.08.11DIV
Herd1
Aalesund 21
11.04.11DIV
Aalesund 23
Herd0
Recent Form
Herd
16.05.26DIV
Volda TI0
Herd1
W
09.05.26DIV
Orkla1
Herd3
W
01.05.26DIV
Herd3
Byasen1
W
25.04.26DIV
Strindheim4
Herd2
L
19.04.26DIV
Herd3
Rosenborg 20
W
12.04.26DIV
Spjelkavik1
Herd3
W
07.04.26DIV
Herd3
Molde 23
D
24.05.23NMC
Herd1
Brattvag2
L
18.05.22NMC
Herd0
Molde2
L
24.07.21NMC
Herd0
Hodd3
L
Aalesund 2
14.05.26DIV
Aalesund 20
Molde 26
L
09.05.26DIV
Spjelkavik2
Aalesund 22
D
03.05.26DIV
Aalesund 22
Melhus3
L
24.04.26DIV
Rosenborg 25
Aalesund 20
L
19.04.26DIV
Nardo5
Aalesund 21
L
11.04.26DIV
Aalesund 23
FK Kvik4
L
06.04.26DIV
Volda TI4
Aalesund 23
L
25.10.25DIV
Kristiansund 21
Aalesund 21
D
19.10.25DIV
Aalesund 20
Trygg/Lade1
L
15.10.25DIV
Rosenborg 23
Aalesund 21
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 26th May 2026, Herd host Aalesund 2 in Norway Div 3 G2. Our analysis desk recommends Herd to win as the standout selection.

Herd arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Aalesund 2 are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 2D 8L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Herd, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Aalesund 2's 2, with 1 draws from 6 encounters. Both teams have scored in 67% of those meetings.

Our verdict: herd to win at odds of 1.29 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Norway Div 3 G2 game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.29. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 27 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Herd vs Aalesund 2?
Our selection is 1 — Herd to win, priced at approximately 1.29. Tip confidence rating: 54%.
What is Herd's current form?
Herd have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Aalesund 2 been performing recently?
Aalesund 2 have recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Herd lead with 3 wins versus Aalesund 2's 2, with 1 draws across 6 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
⚠️
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