WON Case WON Dacia Buiucani 1-2 Sheriff Tiraspol
Fixture Case File · Ref V
D

Dacia Buiucani

Home Side
L L L L L
1W 0D 9L ▲ Trending Up
VS
1-2
S
Sheriff Tiraspol
Away Side
W W D W W
7W 1D 2L ▼ Trending Down
CASE VERIFIED
67%
Tuesday, 21st April 2026 Case Verdict
2
Filing on Sheriff Tiraspol to win
Dacia Buiucani 20%
Draw 30%
Sheriff Tiraspol 50%
H Fair Odds5
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob76.9%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-9.9%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBD<<<<<B<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<S<<<<<<<T<<<<<<<<5174032FC4DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 21 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
2 — Sheriff Tiraspol to win
1.30
BTTS — No65% Sheriff Tiraspol Clean Sheet60%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Dacia Buiucani vs Sheriff Tiraspol Competition: Moldovan Cup Date: Tuesday, 21st April 2026 Pick: 2 (Sheriff Tiraspol to win) Odds: 1.30 Confidence: 67% Also: BTTS — No (65%) Also: Sheriff Tiraspol Clean Sheet (60%) Ledger Ref: 5174032FC
Head to Head
Record
0
Dacia Buiucani
1
Draws
9
Sheriff Tiraspol
10
Meetings
2.6
Avg Goals
20%
BTTS
40%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Sheriff Tiraspol won 9 of 10 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Dacia Buiucani
Metric
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.6
Goals For / Game
1.9
2.2
Goals Against / Game
0.8
10%
Clean Sheets
60%
1-0-9
W — D — L
7-1-2
Win Rate
10%
70%
2.8
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
D0
0-0 6.4%
0-1 13.1%
0-2 13.4%
0-3 9.2%
0-4 4.7%
0-5 1.9%
D1
1-0 4.5%
1-1 9.2%
1-2 9.4%
1-3 6.4%
1-4 3.3%
1-5 1.4%
D2
2-0 1.6%
2-1 3.2%
2-2 3.3%
2-3 2.3%
2-4 1.2%
2-5 0.5%
D3
3-0 0.4%
3-1 0.8%
3-2 0.8%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
D4
4-0 0.1%
4-1 0.1%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
D5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-2(13.4%) 0-1(13.1%) 1-2(9.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing D=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Dacia Buiucani Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Sheriff Tiraspol Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Dacia Buiucani
Overall
1.0
Scoring
2.0
Defence
2.7
Sheriff Tiraspol
Overall
7.3
Scoring
6.3
Defence
7.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 4%
Home Win & BTTS No 8%
Draw & BTTS Yes 2%
Draw & BTTS No 4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Away Win & BTTS No 53%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 6%
Home Win & Under 2.5 6%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 41%
Away Win & Under 2.5 41%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
20.03.26
 (Super Liga) Sheriff2
Dacia Buiucani0
04.03.26
 (Cup) Sheriff2
Dacia Buiucani0
30.11.25
 (Super Liga) Dacia Buiucani0
Sheriff4
27.09.25
 (Super Liga) Sheriff1
Dacia Buiucani0
03.08.25
 (Super Liga) Dacia Buiucani0
Sheriff2
29.09.24
 (Super Liga) Dacia Buiucani1
Sheriff3
04.08.24
 (Super Liga) Sheriff2
Dacia Buiucani0
21.04.24
 (Super Liga) Sheriff3
Dacia Buiucani0
09.03.24
 (Super Liga) Sheriff1
Dacia Buiucani1
29.10.23
 (Super Liga) Dacia Buiucani0
Sheriff4
Recent Form
Dacia Buiucani
18.04.26
 (Super Liga) Dacia Buiucani1
Petrocub - L2
11.04.26
 (Super Liga) Dacia Buiucani1
Balti - L2
04.04.26
 (Super Liga) Milsami1
Dacia Buiucani - L0
20.03.26
 (Super Liga) Sheriff2
Dacia Buiucani - L0
14.03.26
 (Super Liga) Zimbru3
Dacia Buiucani - L2
08.03.26
 (Super Liga) Petrocub3
Dacia Buiucani - L0
04.03.26
 (Cup) Sheriff2
Dacia Buiucani - L0
31.01.26
 (Friendly) Dacia Buiucani1
Olimp Comrat - W0
30.11.25
 (Super Liga) Dacia Buiucani0
Sheriff - L4
22.11.25
 (Super Liga) Petrocub3
Dacia Buiucani - L1
Sheriff Tiraspol
18.04.26
 (Super Liga) Sheriff2
Balti - W0
11.04.26
 (Super Liga) Sheriff3
Milsami - W1
05.04.26
 (Super Liga) Zimbru2
Sheriff - D2
20.03.26
 (Super Liga) Sheriff2
Dacia Buiucani - W0
14.03.26
 (Super Liga) Sheriff1
Petrocub - W0
08.03.26
 (Super Liga) Balti0
Sheriff - W1
04.03.26
 (Cup) Sheriff2
Dacia Buiucani - W0
30.11.25
 (Super Liga) Dacia Buiucani0
Sheriff - W4
23.11.25
 (Super Liga) Sheriff0
Zimbru - L1
08.11.25
 (Super Liga) Petrocub4
Sheriff - L2
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 21st April 2026, Dacia Buiucani host Sheriff Tiraspol in Moldovan Cup. Our analysis desk recommends Sheriff Tiraspol to win as the standout selection.

Dacia Buiucani arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 9 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Sheriff Tiraspol are travelling well, with a record of 7W 1D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Dacia Buiucani, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Sheriff Tiraspol's 9, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.

Our verdict: sheriff tiraspol to win at odds of 1.30 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Moldovan Cup game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 2, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.30. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 21 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Dacia Buiucani vs Sheriff Tiraspol?
Our selection is 2 — Sheriff Tiraspol to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 67%.
What is Dacia Buiucani's current form?
Dacia Buiucani have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 9 of their last 10 matches.
How has Sheriff Tiraspol been performing recently?
Sheriff Tiraspol have recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Dacia Buiucani lead with 0 wins versus Sheriff Tiraspol's 9, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.
⚠️
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