LOST Case LOST Brno 1-0 Zizkov
Fixture Case File · Ref V
B

Brno

Home Side
L W W W W
6W 1D 3L ▼ Trending Down
VS
1-0
Z
Zizkov
Away Side
W D W W D
7W 3D 0L → Holding Steady
CASE VERIFIED
77%
Wednesday, 15th April 2026 Case Verdict
Over 2.5
Filing on over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob61.3%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge+15.7%Value detected
Kelly %40.5%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBB<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<Z<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<892373EA04DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 15 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.63
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Brno vs Zizkov Competition: Czech CHNL Date: Wednesday, 15th April 2026 Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals) Odds: 1.63 Confidence: 77% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Ledger Ref: 892373EA0
Head to Head
Record
6
Brno
0
Draws
4
Zizkov
10
Meetings
4.4
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Over 2.5 in 80% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Brno
Metric
Zizkov
1.2
Goals For / Game
2.5
1.2
Goals Against / Game
0.9
30%
Clean Sheets
30%
6-1-3
W — D — L
7-3-0
Win Rate
60%
70%
2.9
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
Z0
Z1
Z2
Z3
Z4
Z5
B0
0-0 5.5%
0-1 10.2%
0-2 9.4%
0-3 5.8%
0-4 2.7%
0-5 1.0%
B1
1-0 5.8%
1-1 10.7%
1-2 9.9%
1-3 6.1%
1-4 2.8%
1-5 1.0%
B2
2-0 3.0%
2-1 5.6%
2-2 5.2%
2-3 3.2%
2-4 1.5%
2-5 0.6%
B3
3-0 1.1%
3-1 2.0%
3-2 1.8%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.2%
B4
4-0 0.3%
4-1 0.5%
4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.1%
B5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(10.7%) 0-1(10.2%) 1-2(9.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing B=Home goals ↓   Z=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Brno
Overall
6.3
Scoring
4.0
Defence
6.0
Zizkov
Overall
7.9
Scoring
8.3
Defence
7.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Home Win & BTTS No 18%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Away Win & BTTS No 21%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 22%
Home Win & Under 2.5 18%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 26%
Away Win & Under 2.5 21%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
14.09.25CHNL
Zizkov1
Brno4
07.05.25CHNL
Brno4
Zizkov1
20.10.24CHNL
Zizkov4
Brno2
08.05.24CHNL
Brno0
Zizkov2
22.10.23CHNL
Zizkov4
Brno2
10.04.22CHNL
Zizkov0
Brno3
19.09.21CHNL
Brno2
Zizkov1
28.06.20CHNL
Brno6
Zizkov1
26.10.19CHNL
Zizkov1
Brno0
10.03.19CHNL
Brno6
Zizkov0
Recent Form
Brno
11.04.26CHNL
Opava4
Brno0
L
04.04.26CHNL
Brno2
Chrudim0
W
27.03.26CF
Brno3
Teplice1
W
20.03.26CHNL
Prostejov1
Brno2
W
16.03.26CHNL
Brno2
Artis Brno0
W
08.03.26CHNL
Taborsko0
Brno1
W
28.02.26CHNL
Brno1
Pribram0
W
19.02.26CF
Sarpsborg 082
Brno0
L
19.02.26CF
Brno2
Horsens1
W
14.02.26CF
Brno1
Polissya Zhytomyr1
D
Zizkov
12.04.26CHNL
Zizkov2
Jihlava1
W
05.04.26CHNL
Slavia Prague B2
Zizkov2
D
20.03.26CHNL
Ceske Budejovice0
Zizkov2
W
15.03.26CHNL
Zizkov1
Opava0
W
06.03.26CHNL
Prostejov2
Zizkov2
D
01.03.26CHNL
Zizkov2
Chrudim1
W
22.02.26CF
Zizkov4
Bischofswerdaer1
W
15.02.26CF
Zizkov8
Kraluv Dvur1
W
30.01.26CF
Zizkov2
Usti nad Labem1
W
24.01.26TL
Dukla Prague B0
Zizkov0
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Wednesday, 15th April 2026, Brno host Zizkov in Czech CHNL. Our analysis desk recommends over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Brno arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Zizkov are travelling well, with a record of 7W 3D 0L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Brno, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Zizkov's 4, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.63 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Czech CHNL game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is Over 2.5, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.63. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 15 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Brno vs Zizkov?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.63. Tip confidence rating: 77%.
What is Brno's current form?
Brno have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Zizkov been performing recently?
Zizkov have recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Brno lead with 6 wins versus Zizkov's 4, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
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