WON Case WON BE1 NFA 1-0 Kauno Zalgiris 2
Fixture Case File · Ref V
B

BE1 NFA

Home Side
W W W L L
6W 0D 4L ▲ Trending Up
VS
1-0
4:30 pm
N/A
K
Kauno Zalgiris 2
Away Side
W W L W L
3W 1D 6L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
58%
Friday, 4th September 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on BE1 NFA to win
Implied Prob68.5%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-10.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBBE1<NFA<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<K<<<<<Z<<<<<<<<2<9B747867B4DFB2609042M2609049<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 5 Sep 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
5
BE1 NFA
1
Draws
1
Kauno Zalgiris 2
7
Meetings
1.9
Avg Goals
14%
BTTS
14%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing BE1 NFA won 5 of the last 7 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
BE1 NFA
Metric
Kauno Zalgiris 2
1.4
Goals For / Game
1.2
1.1
Goals Against / Game
1.5
40%
Clean Sheets
20%
6-0-4
W — D — L
3-1-6
Win Rate
60%
30%
2.6
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
K0
K1
K2
K3
K4
K5
B0
0-0 7.4%
0-1 8.5%
0-2 4.9%
0-3 1.9%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
B1
1-0 10.8%
1-1 12.4%
1-2 7.1%
1-3 2.7%
1-4 0.8%
1-5 0.2%
B2
2-0 7.8%
2-1 9.0%
2-2 5.2%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
B3
3-0 3.8%
3-1 4.3%
3-2 2.5%
3-3 1.0%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
B4
4-0 1.4%
4-1 1.6%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
B5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(10.8%) 2-1(9.0%) 2-0(7.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing B=Home goals ↓   K=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
BE1 NFA
Overall
6.0
Scoring
4.7
Defence
6.3
Kauno Zalgiris 2
Overall
3.3
Scoring
4.0
Defence
5.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Home Win & BTTS No 38%
Draw & BTTS Yes 2%
Draw & BTTS No 3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Away Win & BTTS No 19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 28%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 2%
Away Win & Over 2.5 18%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
02.05.26IL
Kauno Zalgiris 20
BE1 NFA1
05.10.25IL
Kauno Zalgiris 20
BE1 NFA4
01.06.25IL
BE1 NFA1
Kauno Zalgiris 21
30.08.24IL
BE1 NFA2
Kauno Zalgiris 20
05.04.24IL
Kauno Zalgiris 20
BE1 NFA2
08.10.23IL
Kauno Zalgiris 20
BE1 NFA1
19.05.23IL
BE1 NFA0
Kauno Zalgiris 21
Recent Form
BE1 NFA
29.08.26IL
Ekranas0
BE1 NFA5
W
21.08.26IL
BE1 NFA2
Garliava0
W
14.08.26IL
BE1 NFA2
Hegelmann Litauen 21
W
08.08.26IL
FK Minija3
BE1 NFA0
L
31.07.26IL
BE1 NFA0
Jonava2
L
26.07.26IL
BFA Vilnius3
BE1 NFA1
L
01.07.26IL
Atmosfera0
BE1 NFA1
W
26.06.26IL
BE1 NFA2
Zalgiris 21
W
19.06.26IL
Babrungas1
BE1 NFA0
L
12.06.26IL
BE1 NFA1
Tauras Taurage0
W
Kauno Zalgiris 2
29.08.26IL
Kauno Zalgiris 23
Hegelmann Litauen 20
W
14.08.26IL
Kauno Zalgiris 22
Jonava1
W
10.08.26IL
Zalgiris 22
Kauno Zalgiris 21
L
01.08.26IL
Kauno Zalgiris 23
Atmosfera1
W
24.07.26IL
Tauras Taurage4
Kauno Zalgiris 22
L
19.07.26IL
Kauno Zalgiris 20
Babrungas2
L
28.06.26IL
Kauno Zalgiris 20
BFA Vilnius1
L
24.06.26IL
Babrungas0
Kauno Zalgiris 20
D
18.06.26IL
Neptunas2
Kauno Zalgiris 21
L
12.06.26IL
Kauno Zalgiris 20
Dainava Alytus2
L
BE1 NFA (Home)
21.08.26IL
BE1 NFA2
Garliava0
W
14.08.26IL
BE1 NFA2
Hegelmann Litauen 21
W
31.07.26IL
BE1 NFA0
Jonava2
L
26.06.26IL
BE1 NFA2
Zalgiris 21
W
12.06.26IL
BE1 NFA1
Tauras Taurage0
W
08.05.26IL
BE1 NFA5
Siauliai 22
W
24.04.26IL
BE1 NFA2
Ekranas1
W
22.03.26IL
BE1 NFA2
FK Minija3
L
13.03.26IL
BE1 NFA3
BFA Vilnius1
W
31.10.25IL
BE1 NFA3
Siauliai 20
W
Kauno Zalgiris 2 (Away)
10.08.26IL
Zalgiris 22
Kauno Zalgiris 21
L
24.07.26IL
Tauras Taurage4
Kauno Zalgiris 22
L
24.06.26IL
Babrungas0
Kauno Zalgiris 20
D
18.06.26IL
Neptunas2
Kauno Zalgiris 21
L
30.05.26IL
Transinvest 20
Kauno Zalgiris 21
W
15.05.26IL
Garliava3
Kauno Zalgiris 20
L
08.05.26IL
Ekranas1
Kauno Zalgiris 20
L
24.04.26IL
Hegelmann Litauen 22
Kauno Zalgiris 20
L
04.04.26IL
Jonava3
Kauno Zalgiris 21
L
18.03.26IL
Atmosfera2
Kauno Zalgiris 21
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Friday, 4th September 2026, BE1 NFA host Kauno Zalgiris 2 at N/A. Our analysis desk recommends BE1 NFA to win as the standout selection.

BE1 NFA arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Kauno Zalgiris 2 are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 1D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour BE1 NFA, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Kauno Zalgiris 2's 1, with 1 draws from 7 encounters. Both teams have scored in 14% of those meetings.

Our verdict: be1 nfa to win at odds of 1.46 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Before any bet goes on, one question is worth asking: what exactly is this price paying me for? A bookmaker’s odds are sharp but not flawless. They blend a model, the public’s money, and a margin — and somewhere in that blend, gaps open up. This Unknown League fixture is a hunt for one of those gaps.

The hosts come in on 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games, which is the anchor the market has wrapped its line around. We push past the anchor. Is this a home side currently converting their dominance into goals, grinding out narrow wins, or leaking results they ought to be banking? Each pattern carries a wildly different implication for what is likely at N/A, and only the recent run tells you which one applies.

The visitors answer with 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games. The away record is the part casual bettors underweight most. A team quietly accumulating points on the road over recent weeks is a genuinely different animal from one whose seasonal away tally was banked early and has since dried up. We treat the recent away form as the live signal it is.

Weigh the two and the value crystallises. Our read is 1 at @1.46, a call the model rates at roughly close to 49. Things get underway at 4:30 pm.

That is the play, and the thinking that produced it. We have broken down a full card of fixtures today — worth a browse before you settle on your final selections, because the smart slips are usually built from more than one good read.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 5 Sep 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for BE1 NFA vs Kauno Zalgiris 2?
Our selection is 1 — BE1 NFA to win, priced at approximately 1.46. Tip confidence rating: 58%.
What is BE1 NFA's current form?
BE1 NFA have won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Kauno Zalgiris 2 been performing recently?
Kauno Zalgiris 2 have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
BE1 NFA lead with 5 wins versus Kauno Zalgiris 2's 1, with 1 draws across 7 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 14%.
⚠️
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