Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽
S

Sutjeska Foca

Home Side
D L L W L
2W 2D 6L ▲ Trending Up
VS
—
1:00 pm
—
N/A
L
Leotar
Away Side
W L D W W
7W 2D 1L ▼ Trending Down
⚑
CAUTION
0%
Wednesday, 11th November 2026 Case Verdict
X2
Filing on Leotar to win or draw
Implied Prob79.4%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-79.4%Overpriced
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBS<<<<<<<<F<<<<<<<<<<<<L<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<F2CB3354D4DFB2611112M2611119<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 11 Nov 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
⚔
Head to Head
Record
2
Sutjeska Foca
2
Draws
6
Leotar
10
Meetings
2.9
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Neutral Insufficient H2H data.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Sutjeska Foca
Metric
Leotar
0.7
Goals For / Game
2.2
1.8
Goals Against / Game
0.5
20%
Clean Sheets
50%
2-2-6
W — D — L
7-2-1
Win Rate
20%
70%
2.6
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
S0
0-0 7.4%
0-1 14.9%
0-2 14.9%
0-3 9.9%
0-4 5.0%
0-5 2.0%
S1
1-0 4.5%
1-1 8.9%
1-2 8.9%
1-3 5.9%
1-4 3.0%
1-5 1.2%
S2
2-0 1.3%
2-1 2.7%
2-2 2.7%
2-3 1.8%
2-4 0.9%
2-5 0.4%
S3
3-0 0.3%
3-1 0.5%
3-2 0.5%
3-3 0.4%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
S4
4-0 0.0%
4-1 0.1%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(14.9%) 0-2(14.9%) 0-3(9.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing S=Home goals ↓   L=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Sutjeska Foca
Overall
2.6 —
Scoring
2.3 —
Defence
4.0 —
Leotar
Overall
7.6 ▲
Scoring
7.3 ▲
Defence
8.3 ▲
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Home Win & BTTS No 11%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 11%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Away Win & BTTS No 38%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 9%
Home Win & Under 2.5 9%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 32%
Away Win & Under 2.5 32%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
16.09.26RSL
Leotar2
Sutjeska Foca0
07.03.26RSL
Sutjeska Foca0
Leotar1
13.09.25RSL
Leotar3
Sutjeska Foca1
24.05.25RSL
Sutjeska Foca0
Leotar0
16.11.24RSL
Leotar5
Sutjeska Foca1
23.03.24RSL
Sutjeska Foca1
Leotar0
02.09.23RSL
Leotar3
Sutjeska Foca1
28.04.21RSL
Leotar2
Sutjeska Foca0
10.10.20RSL
Sutjeska Foca2
Leotar2
15.05.16RSL
Sutjeska Foca5
Leotar0
Recent Form
Sutjeska Foca
07.11.26RSL
Nevesinje2
Sutjeska Foca2
D
04.11.26RSL
Majevica6
Sutjeska Foca1
L
24.10.26RSL
Sutjeska Foca0
Romanija Pale3
L
17.10.26RSL
Sutjeska Foca2
Potkozarje1
W
10.10.26RSL
Famos Vojkovici2
Sutjeska Foca1
L
03.10.26RSL
Sutjeska Foca0
Zvijezda 090
D
26.09.26RSL
Kozara1
Sutjeska Foca0
L
23.09.26RSL
Sutjeska Foca1
Omarska0
W
19.09.26RSL
Prijedor1
Sutjeska Foca0
L
16.09.26RSL
Leotar2
Sutjeska Foca0
L
Leotar
07.11.26RSL
Leotar1
Drina Zvornik0
W
28.10.26CUP
Famos Vojkovici1
Leotar0
L
24.10.26RSL
Slavija1
Leotar1
D
21.10.26RSL
Leotar3
Nevesinje0
W
17.10.26RSL
Leotar1
Laktasi0
W
10.10.26RSL
Romanija Pale1
Leotar2
W
03.10.26RSL
Leotar6
Majevica0
W
26.09.26RSL
Potkozarje1
Leotar1
D
22.09.26RSL
Leotar3
Famos Vojkovici0
W
19.09.26RSL
Zvijezda 091
Leotar4
W
Sutjeska Foca (Home)
24.10.26RSL
Sutjeska Foca0
Romanija Pale3
L
17.10.26RSL
Sutjeska Foca2
Potkozarje1
W
03.10.26RSL
Sutjeska Foca0
Zvijezda 090
D
23.09.26RSL
Sutjeska Foca1
Omarska0
W
12.09.26RSL
Sutjeska Foca0
Drina Zvornik0
D
29.08.26RSL
Sutjeska Foca1
Nevesinje0
W
30.05.26RSL
Sutjeska Foca0
Famos Vojkovici3
L
23.05.26RSL
Sutjeska Foca2
Romanija Pale0
W
02.05.26RSL
Sutjeska Foca2
Vlasenica0
W
18.04.26RSL
Sutjeska Foca1
Romanija Pale2
L
Leotar (Away)
28.10.26CUP
Famos Vojkovici1
Leotar0
L
24.10.26RSL
Slavija1
Leotar1
D
10.10.26RSL
Romanija Pale1
Leotar2
W
26.09.26RSL
Potkozarje1
Leotar1
D
19.09.26RSL
Zvijezda 091
Leotar4
W
06.09.26RSL
Omarska0
Leotar1
W
29.08.26RSL
Drina Zvornik2
Leotar2
D
24.05.26RSL
BSK Banja Luka0
Leotar0
D
10.05.26RSL
Slavija0
Leotar0
D
04.04.26RSL
Vlasenica0
Leotar2
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Wednesday, 11th November 2026, Sutjeska Foca host Leotar at N/A in Bosnia Prva Liga - RS. Our analysis desk recommends Leotar to win or draw as the standout selection.

Sutjeska Foca arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Leotar are travelling well, with a record of 7W 2D 1L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Sutjeska Foca, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Leotar's 6, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: leotar to win or draw at odds of 1.26 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Before any bet goes on, one question is worth asking: what exactly is this price paying me for? A bookmaker’s odds are sharp but not flawless. They blend a model, the public’s money, and a margin — and somewhere in that blend, gaps open up. This Bosnia Prva Liga – RS fixture is a hunt for one of those gaps.

The hosts come in on 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses from their last 5 games, which is the anchor the market has wrapped its line around. We push past the anchor. Is this a home side currently converting their dominance into goals, grinding out narrow wins, or leaking results they ought to be banking? Each pattern carries a wildly different implication for what is likely at N/A, and only the recent run tells you which one applies.

The visitors answer with 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. The away record is the part casual bettors underweight most. A team quietly accumulating points on the road over recent weeks is a genuinely different animal from one whose seasonal away tally was banked early and has since dried up. We treat the recent away form as the live signal it is.

Weigh the two and the value crystallises. Our read is X2 at @1.26, a call the model rates at roughly roughly 75. Things get underway at 1:00 pm.

That is the play, and the thinking that produced it. We have broken down a full card of fixtures today — worth a browse before you settle on your final selections, because the smart slips are usually built from more than one good read.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 11 Nov 2026
❓
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Sutjeska Foca vs Leotar?
Our selection is X2 — Leotar to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.26.
What is Sutjeska Foca's current form?
Sutjeska Foca have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches.
How has Leotar been performing recently?
Leotar have recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Sutjeska Foca lead with 2 wins versus Leotar's 6, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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