Fixture Case File · Ref V ⚽
T

Tomislav

Home Side
L L W L D
2W 2D 6L ▼ Trending Down
VS
—
1:00 pm
—
N/A
F
FK Sarajevo
Away Side
W D D W W
5W 2D 3L ▲ Trending Up
⚑
CASE VERIFIED
65%
Tuesday, 27th October 2026 Case Verdict
2
Filing on FK Sarajevo to win
Implied Prob75.8%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-10.8%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBT<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<FK<S<<<<<<<<<<<<<4BAAB31264DFB2610272M2610279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 27 Oct 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
⚔
Head to Head
Record
Neutral No head-to-head data found.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Tomislav
Metric
FK Sarajevo
1.3
Goals For / Game
1.1
2.5
Goals Against / Game
0.6
10%
Clean Sheets
50%
2-2-6
W — D — L
5-2-3
Win Rate
20%
50%
2.8
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
T0
0-0 6.4%
0-1 11.5%
0-2 10.4%
0-3 6.2%
0-4 2.8%
0-5 1.0%
T1
1-0 6.1%
1-1 10.9%
1-2 9.8%
1-3 5.9%
1-4 2.7%
1-5 1.0%
T2
2-0 2.9%
2-1 5.2%
2-2 4.7%
2-3 2.8%
2-4 1.3%
2-5 0.5%
T3
3-0 0.9%
3-1 1.6%
3-2 1.5%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
T4
4-0 0.2%
4-1 0.4%
4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
T5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(11.5%) 0-2(10.4%) 1-2(9.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing T=Home goals ↓   F=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Tomislav
Overall
2.6 —
Scoring
4.3 —
Defence
1.7 —
FK Sarajevo
Overall
5.6 ▼
Scoring
3.7 ▼
Defence
8.0 ▼
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Home Win & BTTS No 12%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Away Win & BTTS No 31%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 12%
Home Win & Under 2.5 10%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 10%
Away Win & Over 2.5 31%
Away Win & Under 2.5 25%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head

No data found.

Recent Form
Tomislav
24.10.26FBiH
Tomislav1
Posusje3
L
17.10.26FBiH
NK Vitez2
Tomislav1
L
10.10.26FBiH
Tomislav1
Kakanj0
W
03.10.26FBiH
Capljina4
Tomislav2
L
27.09.26FBiH
Tomislav2
Igman K.2
D
19.09.26FBiH
Bratstvo Gracanica2
Tomislav2
D
12.09.26FBiH
Tomislav2
Stupcanica1
W
05.09.26FBiH
Jedinstvo Bihac4
Tomislav0
L
29.08.26FBiH
Tomislav2
Travnik4
L
23.08.26FBiH
Sloboda3
Tomislav0
L
FK Sarajevo
24.10.26LIG
FK Sarajevo2
Zeljeznicar0
W
17.10.26LIG
Radnik Bijeljina1
FK Sarajevo1
D
11.10.26LIG
Celik Zenica0
FK Sarajevo0
D
25.09.26CF
Gornji Rahic0
FK Sarajevo3
W
20.09.26LIG
FK Sarajevo2
Sloga Meridian0
W
13.09.26LIG
Velez Mostar1
FK Sarajevo0
L
09.09.26LIG
Zeljeznicar2
FK Sarajevo0
L
06.09.26LIG
FK Sarajevo1
Borac Banja Luka0
W
02.09.26LIG
Siroki Brijeg1
FK Sarajevo2
W
29.08.26LIG
FK Sarajevo0
Zrinjski1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Tuesday, 27th October 2026, Tomislav host FK Sarajevo at N/A in Bosnia and Herzegovina Cup. Our analysis desk recommends FK Sarajevo to win as the standout selection.

Tomislav arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from their last 10 outings.

FK Sarajevo are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 2D 3L across 10 matches.

Our verdict: fk sarajevo to win at odds of 1.32 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Before any bet goes on, one question is worth asking: what exactly is this price paying me for? A bookmaker’s odds are sharp but not flawless. They blend a model, the public’s money, and a margin — and somewhere in that blend, gaps open up. This Bosnia and Herzegovina Cup fixture is a hunt for one of those gaps.

The hosts come in on 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses from their last 5 games, which is the anchor the market has wrapped its line around. We push past the anchor. Is this a home side currently converting their dominance into goals, grinding out narrow wins, or leaking results they ought to be banking? Each pattern carries a wildly different implication for what is likely at N/A, and only the recent run tells you which one applies.

The visitors answer with 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games. The away record is the part casual bettors underweight most. A team quietly accumulating points on the road over recent weeks is a genuinely different animal from one whose seasonal away tally was banked early and has since dried up. We treat the recent away form as the live signal it is.

Weigh the two and the value crystallises. Our read is 2 at @1.32, a call the model rates at roughly around 3 in 10. Things get underway at 1:00 pm.

That is the play, and the thinking that produced it. We have broken down a full card of fixtures today — worth a browse before you settle on your final selections, because the smart slips are usually built from more than one good read.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 27 Oct 2026
❓
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Tomislav vs FK Sarajevo?
Our selection is 2 — FK Sarajevo to win, priced at approximately 1.32. Tip confidence rating: 65%.
What is Tomislav's current form?
Tomislav have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches.
How has FK Sarajevo been performing recently?
FK Sarajevo have recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game.
⚠️
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