WON Case WON Levadia U19 1-0 Legion
Fixture Case File · Ref V
L

Levadia U19

Home Side
W W W W L
8W 0D 2L → Holding Steady
VS
1-0
5:00 pm
N/A
L
Legion
Away Side
D L L L W
1W 1D 8L ▼ Trending Down
CASE VERIFIED
76%
Monday, 24th August 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Levadia U19 to win
Implied Prob84%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-8%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBL<<<<<<<U19<<<<<<<<<<<L<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<FBB08E5134DFB2608242M2608249<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 25 Aug 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Levadia U19 to win
1.19
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Levadia U19 vs Legion Competition: Esiliiga B Date: Monday, 24th August 2026 KO: 5:00 pm Pick: 1 (Levadia U19 to win) Odds: 1.19 Confidence: 76% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Ledger Ref: FBB08E513
Head to Head
Record
2
Levadia U19
0
Draws
0
Legion
2
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Levadia U19 won 2 of the last 2 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Levadia U19
Metric
Legion
2.5
Goals For / Game
1.3
1.7
Goals Against / Game
3.8
30%
Clean Sheets
10%
8-0-2
W — D — L
1-1-8
Win Rate
80%
10%
4.7
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
L0
0-0 1.0%
0-1 1.4%
0-2 1.1%
0-3 0.5%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.1%
L1
1-0 3.0%
1-1 4.5%
1-2 3.4%
1-3 1.7%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.2%
L2
2-0 4.7%
2-1 7.1%
2-2 5.3%
2-3 2.7%
2-4 1.0%
2-5 0.3%
L3
3-0 5.0%
3-1 7.5%
3-2 5.6%
3-3 2.8%
3-4 1.1%
3-5 0.3%
L4
4-0 3.9%
4-1 5.9%
4-2 4.4%
4-3 2.2%
4-4 0.8%
4-5 0.3%
L5
5-0 2.5%
5-1 3.7%
5-2 2.8%
5-3 1.4%
5-4 0.5%
5-5 0.2%
Top Scores 3-1(7.5%) 2-1(7.1%) 4-1(5.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing L=Home goals ↓   L=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Levadia U19
Overall
8.0
Scoring
8.3
Defence
4.3
Legion
Overall
1.3
Scoring
4.3
Defence
0.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 55%
Home Win & BTTS No 29%
Draw & BTTS Yes 3%
Draw & BTTS No 2%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Away Win & BTTS No 4%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 67%
Home Win & Under 2.5 17%
Draw & Over 2.5 4%
Draw & Under 2.5 1%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 2%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
01.06.26ESB
Levadia U196
Legion0
22.03.26ESB
Legion0
Levadia U192
Recent Form
Levadia U19
19.08.26ESB
Levadia U191
Narva U210
W
16.08.26ESB
Tulevik1
Levadia U194
W
09.08.26ESB
Levadia U193
Tabasalu0
W
03.08.26ESB
Parnu JK Vaprus U212
Levadia U193
W
19.07.26ESB
Levadia U190
Tartu Kalev5
L
12.07.26ESB
Levadia U194
Tallinna Kalev U211
W
04.07.26ESB
Levadia U193
Tammeka U212
W
22.06.26ESB
Levadia U192
Johvi Phoenix0
W
19.06.26ESB
Tulevik2
Levadia U193
W
15.06.26ESB
Parnu JK Vaprus U214
Levadia U192
L
Legion
21.08.26ESB
Tallinna Kalev U213
Legion3
D
09.08.26ESB
Legion1
Narva U213
L
01.08.26ESB
Legion0
Johvi Phoenix1
L
26.07.26CUP
Saku Sporting2
Legion1
L
18.07.26ESB
Legion2
Tabasalu0
W
12.07.26ESB
Tartu Kalev10
Legion2
L
05.07.26ESB
Legion2
Tallinna Kalev U213
L
22.06.26ESB
Legion1
Parnu JK Vaprus U214
L
18.06.26ESB
Johvi Phoenix6
Legion1
L
01.06.26ESB
Levadia U196
Legion0
L
Levadia U19 (Home)
19.08.26ESB
Levadia U191
Narva U210
W
09.08.26ESB
Levadia U193
Tabasalu0
W
19.07.26ESB
Levadia U190
Tartu Kalev5
L
12.07.26ESB
Levadia U194
Tallinna Kalev U211
W
04.07.26ESB
Levadia U193
Tammeka U212
W
22.06.26ESB
Levadia U192
Johvi Phoenix0
W
01.06.26ESB
Levadia U196
Legion0
W
02.05.26ESB
Levadia U192
Tulevik5
L
28.04.26ESB
Levadia U193
Tartu Kalev1
W
12.04.26ESB
Levadia U190
Narva U214
L
Legion (Away)
21.08.26ESB
Tallinna Kalev U213
Legion3
D
26.07.26CUP
Saku Sporting2
Legion1
L
12.07.26ESB
Tartu Kalev10
Legion2
L
18.06.26ESB
Johvi Phoenix6
Legion1
L
01.06.26ESB
Levadia U196
Legion0
L
27.05.26ESB
Tabasalu2
Legion3
W
09.05.26ESB
Tammeka U2112
Legion0
L
02.05.26ESB
Narva U215
Legion0
L
27.04.26ESB
Johvi Phoenix2
Legion1
L
19.04.26ESB
Parnu JK Vaprus U211
Legion1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Monday, 24th August 2026, Levadia U19 host Legion at N/A in Esiliiga B. Our analysis desk recommends Levadia U19 to win as the standout selection.

Levadia U19 arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Legion are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 1D 8L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Levadia U19, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Legion's 0, with 0 draws from 2 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: levadia u19 to win at odds of 1.19 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Before any bet goes on, one question is worth asking: what exactly is this price paying me for? A bookmaker’s odds are sharp but not flawless. They blend a model, the public’s money, and a margin — and somewhere in that blend, gaps open up. This Esiliiga B fixture is a hunt for one of those gaps.

The hosts come in on 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games, which is the anchor the market has wrapped its line around. We push past the anchor. Is this a home side currently converting their dominance into goals, grinding out narrow wins, or leaking results they ought to be banking? Each pattern carries a wildly different implication for what is likely at N/A, and only the recent run tells you which one applies.

The visitors answer with 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses from their last 5 games. The away record is the part casual bettors underweight most. A team quietly accumulating points on the road over recent weeks is a genuinely different animal from one whose seasonal away tally was banked early and has since dried up. We treat the recent away form as the live signal it is.

Weigh the two and the value crystallises. Our read is 1 at @1.19, a call the model rates at roughly 65%. Things get underway at 5:00 pm.

That is the play, and the thinking that produced it. We have broken down a full card of fixtures today — worth a browse before you settle on your final selections, because the smart slips are usually built from more than one good read.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 25 Aug 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Levadia U19 vs Legion?
Our selection is 1 — Levadia U19 to win, priced at approximately 1.19. Tip confidence rating: 76%.
What is Levadia U19's current form?
Levadia U19 have won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Legion been performing recently?
Legion have recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Levadia U19 lead with 2 wins versus Legion's 0, with 0 draws across 2 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
⚠️
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