LOST Case LOST ML Vitebsk 0-0 FC Gomel
Fixture Case File · Ref V
M

ML Vitebsk

Home Side
W W W L D
6W 2D 2L ▲ Trending Up
VS
0-0
F
FC Gomel
Away Side
L W D W W
5W 2D 3L ▼ Trending Down
MODERATE
62%
Friday, 22nd May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on ML Vitebsk to win
ML Vitebsk 50%
Draw 30%
FC Gomel 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob77.5%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-15.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBML<V<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<FC<G<<<<<<<<<<<<<EFAADA1CA4DFB2609102M2609109<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 23 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — ML Vitebsk to win
1.29
Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
ML Vitebsk vs FC Gomel Competition: Belarus Vysshaya Liga Date: Friday, 22nd May 2026 Pick: 1 (ML Vitebsk to win) Odds: 1.29 Confidence: 62% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Ledger Ref: EFAADA1CA
Head to Head
Record
3
ML Vitebsk
0
Draws
0
FC Gomel
3
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
33%
BTTS
67%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing ML Vitebsk won 3 of the last 3 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
ML Vitebsk
Metric
FC Gomel
2.2
Goals For / Game
1.6
1
Goals Against / Game
1.2
30%
Clean Sheets
30%
6-2-2
W — D — L
5-2-3
Win Rate
60%
50%
3
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
M0
0-0 5.0%
0-1 6.5%
0-2 4.2%
0-3 1.8%
0-4 0.6%
0-5 0.2%
M1
1-0 8.5%
1-1 11.0%
1-2 7.2%
1-3 3.1%
1-4 1.0%
1-5 0.3%
M2
2-0 7.2%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 6.1%
2-3 2.6%
2-4 0.9%
2-5 0.2%
M3
3-0 4.1%
3-1 5.3%
3-2 3.4%
3-3 1.5%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
M4
4-0 1.7%
4-1 2.3%
4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
M5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 0.8%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.4%) 1-0(8.5%) 2-0(7.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing M=Home goals ↓   F=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
ML Vitebsk Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
FC Gomel Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
ML Vitebsk
Overall
6.6
Scoring
7.3
Defence
6.7
FC Gomel
Overall
5.6
Scoring
5.3
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Home Win & BTTS No 21%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 21%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 23%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 20%
Away Win & Under 2.5 20%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
23.11.25VL
ML Vitebsk5
FC Gomel0
28.06.25VL
FC Gomel0
ML Vitebsk2
15.02.25CF
FC Gomel2
ML Vitebsk3
Recent Form
ML Vitebsk
17.05.26VL
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk0
ML Vitebsk3
W
10.05.26VL
ML Vitebsk5
Dnepr Mogilev1
W
03.05.26VL
Din. Minsk2
ML Vitebsk3
W
29.04.26CUP
Din. Minsk1
ML Vitebsk0
L
25.04.26VL
ML Vitebsk0
Dynamo Brest0
D
19.04.26VL
BATE1
ML Vitebsk2
W
15.04.26CUP
ML Vitebsk0
Din. Minsk2
L
11.04.26VL
Baranovici0
ML Vitebsk4
W
04.04.26VL
ML Vitebsk1
Isloch1
D
28.03.26CF
ML Vitebsk4
Smorgon2
W
FC Gomel
14.05.26VL
FC Gomel2
Baranovici3
L
08.05.26VL
FC Gomel2
Isloch0
W
02.05.26VL
FC Gomel1
Zhodino1
D
26.04.26VL
Belshina0
FC Gomel2
W
19.04.26VL
FC Gomel3
Slavia Mozyr1
W
10.04.26VL
Naftan0
FC Gomel2
W
05.04.26VL
FC Minsk2
FC Gomel0
L
20.03.26VL
Vitebsk1
FC Gomel1
D
13.03.26CF
FC Gomel3
BumProm Gomel1
W
07.03.26CF
FC Gomel2
Iskra Smolensk1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Friday, 22nd May 2026, ML Vitebsk host FC Gomel in Belarus Vysshaya Liga. Our analysis desk recommends ML Vitebsk to win as the standout selection.

ML Vitebsk arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

FC Gomel are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 2D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour ML Vitebsk, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to FC Gomel's 0, with 0 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 33% of those meetings.

Our verdict: ml vitebsk to win at odds of 1.29 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Belarus Vysshaya Liga game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.29. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 23 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for ML Vitebsk vs FC Gomel?
Our selection is 1 — ML Vitebsk to win, priced at approximately 1.29. Tip confidence rating: 62%.
What is ML Vitebsk's current form?
ML Vitebsk have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has FC Gomel been performing recently?
FC Gomel have recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
ML Vitebsk lead with 3 wins versus FC Gomel's 0, with 0 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 33%.
⚠️
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