WON Case WON Simba 1-0 JKT Tanzania
Fixture Case File · Ref V
S

Simba

Home Side
D W W W D
6W 4D 0L ▲ Trending Up
VS
1-0
J
JKT Tanzania
Away Side
W L W D L
4W 3D 3L → Holding Steady
CASE VERIFIED
68%
Wednesday, 6th May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Simba to win
Simba 60%
Draw 20%
JKT Tanzania 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob82.6%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-14.6%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBS<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<JKT<T<<<<<<<<<<<<8B26A03FF4DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 6 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Simba to win
1.21
BTTS — No65%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Simba vs JKT Tanzania Competition: Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara Date: Wednesday, 6th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Simba to win) Odds: 1.21 Confidence: 68% Also: BTTS — No (65%) Ledger Ref: 8B26A03FF
Head to Head
Record
9
Simba
0
Draws
1
JKT Tanzania
10
Meetings
2.1
Avg Goals
20%
BTTS
40%
Over 2.5
Supports Filing Simba won 9 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Simba
Metric
JKT Tanzania
1.9
Goals For / Game
1.1
0.6
Goals Against / Game
1.2
50%
Clean Sheets
50%
6-4-0
W — D — L
4-3-3
Win Rate
60%
40%
2.4
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
J0
J1
J2
J3
J4
J5
S0
0-0 9.1%
0-1 7.7%
0-2 3.3%
0-3 0.9%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
S1
1-0 14.1%
1-1 12.0%
1-2 5.1%
1-3 1.4%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
S2
2-0 10.9%
2-1 9.3%
2-2 3.9%
2-3 1.1%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
S3
3-0 5.6%
3-1 4.8%
3-2 2.0%
3-3 0.6%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
S4
4-0 2.2%
4-1 1.9%
4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 0.7%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(14.1%) 2-0(10.9%) 2-1(9.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing S=Home goals ↓   J=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Simba Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
JKT Tanzania Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Simba
Overall
7.2
Scoring
6.3
Defence
8.0
JKT Tanzania
Overall
4.9
Scoring
3.7
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Home Win & BTTS No 29%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 17%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 24%
Home Win & Under 2.5 20%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 12%
Away Win & Over 2.5 17%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
08.11.25LKB
JKT Tanzania1
Simba2
05.05.25LKB
JKT Tanzania0
Simba1
24.12.24LKB
Simba1
JKT Tanzania0
28.05.24LKB
Simba2
JKT Tanzania0
15.02.24LKB
JKT Tanzania0
Simba1
01.03.21LKB
Simba3
JKT Tanzania0
04.10.20LKB
JKT Tanzania0
Simba4
07.02.20LKB
Simba0
JKT Tanzania1
29.08.19LKB
JKT Tanzania1
Simba3
30.04.19LKB
Simba1
JKT Tanzania0
Recent Form
Simba
03.05.26LKB
Simba2
Young Africans2
D
19.04.26LKB
Namungo1
Simba3
W
15.04.26LKB
Fountain Gate0
Simba3
W
12.04.26FAC
Simba3
Dodoma Jiji1
W
09.04.26LKB
TRA United0
Simba0
D
05.04.26LKB
Azam0
Simba0
D
02.04.26LKB
Simba2
Coastal Union0
W
22.03.26LKB
Simba3
TRA United0
W
19.03.26LKB
Pamba1
Simba1
D
11.03.26LKB
Singida Black Stars1
Simba2
W
JKT Tanzania
30.04.26LKB
JKT Tanzania1
Kinondoni MC0
W
17.04.26LKB
Azam3
JKT Tanzania0
L
10.04.26FAC
JKT Tanzania3
Mbuni0
W
04.04.26LKB
Namungo2
JKT Tanzania2
D
25.02.26LKB
Young Africans5
JKT Tanzania0
L
13.02.26LKB
JKT Tanzania1
Coastal Union1
D
09.02.26LKB
JKT Tanzania1
Mashujaa0
W
02.02.26LKB
JKT Tanzania3
Pamba0
W
30.01.26LKB
JKT Tanzania0
Dodoma Jiji1
L
25.01.26LKB
Tanzania Prisons0
JKT Tanzania0
D
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Wednesday, 6th May 2026, Simba host JKT Tanzania in Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara. Our analysis desk recommends Simba to win as the standout selection.

Simba arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

JKT Tanzania are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 3D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Simba, who lead the head-to-head with 9 wins to JKT Tanzania's 1, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.

Our verdict: simba to win at odds of 1.21 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.21. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 6 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Simba vs JKT Tanzania?
Our selection is 1 — Simba to win, priced at approximately 1.21. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Simba's current form?
Simba have won 6, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has JKT Tanzania been performing recently?
JKT Tanzania have recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Simba lead with 9 wins versus JKT Tanzania's 1, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.
⚠️
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