WON Case WON Waterhouse 4-0 Dunbeholden
Fixture Case File · Ref V
W

Waterhouse

Home Side
W L L W W
6W 1D 3L → Holding Steady
VS
4-0
D
Dunbeholden
Away Side
L L W L D
5W 1D 4L ▲ Trending Up
MODERATE
50%
Wednesday, 6th May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Waterhouse to win
Waterhouse 50%
Draw 30%
Dunbeholden 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob80.6%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-30.6%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBW<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<D<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<1B7153D0E4DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 6 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
4
Waterhouse
4
Draws
2
Dunbeholden
10
Meetings
1.9
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
40%
Over 2.5
Against Filing Waterhouse won 4 of the last 10 meetings (4 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Waterhouse
Metric
Dunbeholden
1.7
Goals For / Game
1.2
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.4
40%
Clean Sheets
40%
6-1-3
W — D — L
5-1-4
Win Rate
60%
50%
2.6
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
D0
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
W0
0-0 7.4%
0-1 7.8%
0-2 4.1%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
W1
1-0 11.5%
1-1 12.1%
1-2 6.4%
1-3 2.2%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
W2
2-0 8.9%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 4.9%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
W3
3-0 4.6%
3-1 4.8%
3-2 2.5%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
W4
4-0 1.8%
4-1 1.9%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
W5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(11.5%) 2-1(9.4%) 2-0(8.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing W=Home goals ↓   D=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Waterhouse Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Dunbeholden Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Waterhouse
Overall
6.3
Scoring
5.7
Defence
7.0
Dunbeholden
Overall
5.3
Scoring
4.0
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Home Win & BTTS No 28%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Away Win & BTTS No 23%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 28%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 4%
Draw & Under 2.5 4%
Away Win & Over 2.5 23%
Away Win & Under 2.5 19%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
08.02.26PL
Dunbeholden1
Waterhouse2
19.10.25PL
Waterhouse0
Dunbeholden0
04.05.25PL
Waterhouse2
Dunbeholden0
16.02.25PL
Dunbeholden1
Waterhouse0
08.12.24PL
Waterhouse3
Dunbeholden2
24.03.24PL
Waterhouse1
Dunbeholden0
27.12.23PL
Dunbeholden2
Waterhouse1
28.03.23PL
Waterhouse0
Dunbeholden0
28.12.22PL
Dunbeholden0
Waterhouse0
17.04.22PL
Dunbeholden2
Waterhouse2
Recent Form
Waterhouse
03.05.26PL
Waterhouse3
Chapelton0
W
28.04.26PL
Mount Pleasant2
Waterhouse1
L
24.04.26PL
Waterhouse1
Treasure Beach2
L
19.04.26PL
Harbour View0
Waterhouse1
W
16.04.26PL
Waterhouse1
Tivoli0
W
12.04.26PL
Racing United0
Waterhouse1
W
06.04.26PL
Waterhouse1
Arnett Gardens1
D
31.03.26PL
Waterhouse5
Spanish Town Police1
W
26.03.26PL
Portmore2
Waterhouse1
L
23.03.26PL
Waterhouse2
Cavalier1
W
Dunbeholden
03.05.26PL
Dunbeholden0
Mount Pleasant5
L
26.04.26PL
Treasure Beach1
Dunbeholden0
L
23.04.26PL
Dunbeholden4
Harbour View0
W
19.04.26PL
Tivoli2
Dunbeholden0
L
15.04.26PL
Racing United0
Dunbeholden0
D
12.04.26PL
Arnett Gardens1
Dunbeholden2
W
05.04.26PL
Spanish Town Police4
Dunbeholden1
L
29.03.26PL
Dunbeholden2
Portmore1
W
26.03.26PL
Cavalier0
Dunbeholden2
W
22.03.26PL
Dunbeholden1
Molynes0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Wednesday, 6th May 2026, Waterhouse host Dunbeholden in Jamaica Premier League. Our analysis desk recommends Waterhouse to win as the standout selection.

Waterhouse arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Dunbeholden are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 1D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Waterhouse, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Dunbeholden's 2, with 4 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: waterhouse to win at odds of 1.24 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Jamaica Premier League game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.24. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 6 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Waterhouse vs Dunbeholden?
Our selection is 1 — Waterhouse to win, priced at approximately 1.24. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is Waterhouse's current form?
Waterhouse have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Dunbeholden been performing recently?
Dunbeholden have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Waterhouse lead with 4 wins versus Dunbeholden's 2, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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