WON Case WON Zimbru Chisinau 2-0 Milsami
Fixture Case File · Ref V
Z

Zimbru Chisinau

Home Side
W W W W L
7W 2D 1L ▲ Trending Up
VS
2-0
M
Milsami
Away Side
L L D L L
2W 3D 5L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
56%
Wednesday, 6th May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Zimbru Chisinau to win
Zimbru Chisinau 50%
Draw 30%
Milsami 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob67.6%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-11.6%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBZ<<<<<<C<<<<<<<<<<<<<<M<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<FA3B5A6384DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 6 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Zimbru Chisinau to win
1.48
BTTS — No70%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Zimbru Chisinau vs Milsami Competition: Moldovan Cup Date: Wednesday, 6th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Zimbru Chisinau to win) Odds: 1.48 Confidence: 56% Also: BTTS — No (70%) Ledger Ref: FA3B5A638
Head to Head
Record
5
Zimbru Chisinau
1
Draws
4
Milsami
10
Meetings
3.1
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Neutral Zimbru Chisinau won 5 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Zimbru Chisinau
Metric
Milsami
2.7
Goals For / Game
0.8
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.2
50%
Clean Sheets
50%
7-2-1
W — D — L
2-3-5
Win Rate
70%
20%
2.8
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
30%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
Z0
0-0 6.1%
0-1 5.2%
0-2 2.2%
0-3 0.6%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
Z1
1-0 11.9%
1-1 10.1%
1-2 4.3%
1-3 1.2%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.0%
Z2
2-0 11.6%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 4.2%
2-3 1.2%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.0%
Z3
3-0 7.5%
3-1 6.4%
3-2 2.7%
3-3 0.8%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
Z4
4-0 3.7%
4-1 3.1%
4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
Z5
5-0 1.4%
5-1 1.2%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(11.9%) 2-0(11.6%) 2-1(9.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing Z=Home goals ↓   M=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Zimbru Chisinau Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Milsami Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Zimbru Chisinau
Overall
7.6
Scoring
9.0
Defence
7.0
Milsami
Overall
2.9
Scoring
2.7
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Home Win & BTTS No 43%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 5%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 37%
Home Win & Under 2.5 24%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 10%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
18.04.26SL
Zimbru Chisinau3
Milsami1
07.03.26SL
Milsami0
Zimbru Chisinau0
05.10.25SL
Milsami0
Zimbru Chisinau3
10.08.25SL
Zimbru Chisinau2
Milsami1
21.06.25SL
Milsami3
Zimbru Chisinau0
19.04.25SL
Milsami2
Zimbru Chisinau0
08.03.25SL
Zimbru Chisinau1
Milsami2
06.10.24SL
Milsami3
Zimbru Chisinau1
11.08.24SL
Zimbru Chisinau4
Milsami1
21.04.24SL
Zimbru Chisinau3
Milsami1
Recent Form
Zimbru Chisinau
02.05.26SL
Zimbru Chisinau4
Balti1
W
25.04.26SL
Dacia Buiucani0
Zimbru Chisinau3
W
21.04.26CUP
Politehnica UTM0
Zimbru Chisinau5
W
18.04.26SL
Zimbru Chisinau3
Milsami1
W
11.04.26SL
Petrocub3
Zimbru Chisinau0
L
05.04.26SL
Zimbru Chisinau2
Sheriff Tiraspol2
D
21.03.26SL
Balti0
Zimbru Chisinau2
W
14.03.26SL
Zimbru Chisinau3
Dacia Buiucani2
W
07.03.26SL
Milsami0
Zimbru Chisinau0
D
03.03.26CUP
Zimbru Chisinau5
Politehnica UTM0
W
Milsami
02.05.26SL
Milsami0
Petrocub3
L
26.04.26SL
Balti1
Milsami0
L
22.04.26CUP
Sparta Selemet0
Milsami0
D
18.04.26SL
Zimbru Chisinau3
Milsami1
L
11.04.26SL
Sheriff Tiraspol3
Milsami1
L
04.04.26SL
Milsami1
Dacia Buiucani0
W
21.03.26SL
Petrocub2
Milsami0
L
15.03.26SL
Milsami0
Balti0
D
07.03.26SL
Milsami0
Zimbru Chisinau0
D
03.03.26CUP
Milsami5
Sparta Selemet0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Wednesday, 6th May 2026, Zimbru Chisinau host Milsami in Moldovan Cup. Our analysis desk recommends Zimbru Chisinau to win as the standout selection.

Zimbru Chisinau arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Milsami are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 3D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Zimbru Chisinau, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Milsami's 4, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: zimbru chisinau to win at odds of 1.48 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Moldovan Cup game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.48. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 6 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Zimbru Chisinau vs Milsami?
Our selection is 1 — Zimbru Chisinau to win, priced at approximately 1.48. Tip confidence rating: 56%.
What is Zimbru Chisinau's current form?
Zimbru Chisinau have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Milsami been performing recently?
Milsami have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Zimbru Chisinau lead with 5 wins versus Milsami's 4, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
Bet Responsibly. DailyForebet provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.
18+Betting carries risk: debt, isolation, dependency. Predictions are for entertainment and informational purposes only, not financial advice.