Fixture Case File · Ref V
F

FAS

Home Side
D W W D W
7W 2D 1L ▼ Trending Down
VS
P
Platense Municipal
Away Side
D L W D L
1W 6D 3L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
56%
Friday, 1st May 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on FAS to win
FAS 50%
Draw 30%
Platense Municipal 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob77.5%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-21.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBFAS<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<P<<<<<<<<M<<<<<<<A074B28D94DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 1 May 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — FAS to win
1.29
Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
FAS vs Platense Municipal Competition: El Salvador Primera Division Date: Friday, 1st May 2026 Pick: 1 (FAS to win) Odds: 1.29 Confidence: 56% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Ledger Ref: A074B28D9
Head to Head
Record
5
FAS
4
Draws
1
Platense Municipal
10
Meetings
2.6
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
40%
Over 2.5
Neutral FAS won 5 of the last 10 meetings (4 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
FAS
Metric
Platense Municipal
2.8
Goals For / Game
1
1
Goals Against / Game
1.2
30%
Clean Sheets
20%
7-2-1
W — D — L
1-6-3
Win Rate
70%
10%
3
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
F0
0-0 5.0%
0-1 5.0%
0-2 2.5%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
F1
1-0 10.0%
1-1 10.0%
1-2 5.0%
1-3 1.7%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
F2
2-0 10.0%
2-1 10.0%
2-2 5.0%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
F3
3-0 6.6%
3-1 6.6%
3-2 3.3%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
F4
4-0 3.3%
4-1 3.3%
4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
F5
5-0 1.3%
5-1 1.3%
5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(10.0%) 2-0(10.0%) 2-1(10.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing F=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
FAS Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Platense Municipal Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
FAS
Overall
7.6
Scoring
9.3
Defence
6.7
Platense Municipal
Overall
2.8
Scoring
3.3
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 35%
Home Win & BTTS No 23%
Draw & BTTS Yes 20%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 5%
Away Win & BTTS No 4%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 26%
Home Win & Under 2.5 32%
Draw & Over 2.5 15%
Draw & Under 2.5 18%
Away Win & Over 2.5 4%
Away Win & Under 2.5 5%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
09.03.26PD
Platense Municipal2
FAS3
16.11.25PD
FAS4
Platense Municipal1
14.09.25PD
Platense Municipal3
FAS3
03.05.25PD
Platense Municipal0
FAS0
09.03.25PD
FAS4
Platense Municipal1
31.10.24PD
Platense Municipal0
FAS1
29.08.24PD
FAS0
Platense Municipal0
10.04.24PD
Platense Municipal2
FAS0
08.02.24PD
FAS0
Platense Municipal0
05.11.23PD
FAS2
Platense Municipal0
Recent Form
FAS
26.04.26PD
Luis Angel Firpo1
FAS1
D
22.04.26CP
FAS4
Dragon1
W
20.04.26PD
FAS3
Cacahuatique0
W
16.04.26PD
Inter F.A2
FAS2
D
12.04.26PD
Alianza FC0
FAS2
W
07.04.26CP
Dragon1
FAS5
W
04.04.26PD
Zacatecoluca1
FAS6
W
02.04.26PD
FAS2
Municipal Limeno0
W
29.03.26PD
Aguila3
FAS0
L
23.03.26PD
FAS3
Fuerte San Francisco1
W
Platense Municipal
26.04.26PD
Platense Municipal1
Hercules1
D
21.04.26CP
Fuerte San Francisco1
Platense Municipal0
L
19.04.26PD
Metapan0
Platense Municipal2
W
15.04.26PD
Fuerte San Francisco1
Platense Municipal1
D
12.04.26PD
Platense Municipal0
Luis Angel Firpo1
L
09.04.26CP
Platense Municipal1
Fuerte San Francisco1
D
05.04.26PD
Cacahuatique1
Platense Municipal1
D
01.04.26PD
Platense Municipal0
Inter F.A0
D
29.03.26PD
Alianza FC3
Platense Municipal3
D
22.03.26PD
Platense Municipal1
Zacatecoluca3
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Friday, 1st May 2026, FAS host Platense Municipal in El Salvador Primera Division. Our analysis desk recommends FAS to win as the standout selection.

FAS arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Platense Municipal are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 6D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour FAS, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Platense Municipal's 1, with 4 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: fas to win at odds of 1.29 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This El Salvador Primera Division game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.29. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 1 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for FAS vs Platense Municipal?
Our selection is 1 — FAS to win, priced at approximately 1.29. Tip confidence rating: 56%.
What is FAS's current form?
FAS have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Platense Municipal been performing recently?
Platense Municipal have recorded 1 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
FAS lead with 5 wins versus Platense Municipal's 1, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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