WON Case WON Bodo Glimt 5-0 Start
Fixture Case File · Ref V
B

Bodo Glimt

Home Side
W W W D L
7W 1D 2L → Holding Steady
VS
5-0
S
Start
Away Side
L D L D L
0W 4D 6L → Holding Steady
MODERATE
60%
Thursday, 30th April 2026 Case Verdict
1
Filing on Bodo Glimt to win
Bodo Glimt 60%
Draw 20%
Start 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob93.5%Bookmaker's implied odds
Case Edge-33.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
Fixture Ledger Code
V<DFBB<<<<G<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<S<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<BB2BA2E484DFB2607272M2607279<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DD
Case reviewed & signed off by DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst · Last checked 30 Apr 2026
✓ Data-Audited ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Markets
Extras
Primary Filing
1 — Bodo Glimt to win
1.07
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals95%
📋 Case Slip / Combo Builder
Bodo Glimt vs Start Competition: Norway Eliteserien Date: Thursday, 30th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Bodo Glimt to win) Odds: 1.07 Confidence: 60% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%) Ledger Ref: BB2BA2E48
Head to Head
Record
5
Bodo Glimt
2
Draws
3
Start
10
Meetings
2.8
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Neutral Bodo Glimt won 5 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Bodo Glimt
Metric
Start
2
Goals For / Game
1
1.3
Goals Against / Game
1.8
50%
Clean Sheets
0%
7-1-2
W — D — L
0-4-6
Win Rate
70%
0%
3.1
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
B0
0-0 4.7%
0-1 5.5%
0-2 3.1%
0-3 1.2%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
B1
1-0 9.0%
1-1 10.4%
1-2 6.0%
1-3 2.3%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
B2
2-0 8.6%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.2%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
B3
3-0 5.4%
3-1 6.2%
3-2 3.6%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
B4
4-0 2.6%
4-1 3.0%
4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.7%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
B5
5-0 1.0%
5-1 1.1%
5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.8%) 1-0(9.0%) 2-0(8.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts filing B=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Bodo Glimt Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Start Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Bodo Glimt
Overall
7.3
Scoring
6.7
Defence
5.7
Start
Overall
1.2
Scoring
3.3
Defence
4.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 41%
Home Win & BTTS No 33%
Draw & BTTS Yes 14%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 48%
Home Win & Under 2.5 26%
Draw & Over 2.5 17%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Case Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📐 Editorial Standards for This Case File
  • Every fixture is cross-checked against at least three data points: recent form, head-to-head history, and market odds — no case is filed on a single signal alone.
  • Confidence and edge figures are generated by a documented formula (see methodology above), never assigned arbitrarily.
  • Case files are reviewed by a named analyst before publication and re-checked closer to kickoff for team news or lineup changes.
  • Settled cases are logged publicly with WON / LOST / VOID status — nothing is quietly deleted or hidden after the fact.
  • Corrections to a published case (updated odds, lineup news, postponements) are recorded in the update log below with a timestamp.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
02.12.20ELI
Start1
Bodo/Glimt1
22.08.20ELI
Bodo/Glimt6
Start0
11.03.19CF
Bodo/Glimt1
Start0
26.09.18NMC
Start2
Bodo/Glimt1
23.09.18ELI
Bodo/Glimt1
Start2
21.05.18ELI
Start1
Bodo/Glimt0
25.02.18CF
Start0
Bodo/Glimt1
12.09.17OBO
Start2
Bodo/Glimt2
02.05.17OBO
Bodo/Glimt3
Start2
28.08.16ELI
Bodo/Glimt2
Start0
Recent Form
Bodo Glimt
26.04.26ELI
Lillestrom0
Bodo/Glimt2
W
22.04.26NMC
Bodo/Glimt2
KFUM Oslo (1 - 1)1
W
18.04.26ELI
Bodo/Glimt3
Aalesund0
W
15.04.26ELI
Sarpsborg 081
Bodo/Glimt1
D
11.04.26ELI
Viking5
Bodo/Glimt0
L
06.04.26ELI
Kristiansund0
Bodo/Glimt3
W
22.03.26NMC
Bodo/Glimt4
Lillestrom0
W
17.03.26CL
Sporting CP5
Bodo/Glimt (3 - 0)0
L
11.03.26CL
Bodo/Glimt3
Sporting CP0
W
05.03.26NMC
Molde1
Bodo/Glimt2
W
Start
26.04.26ELI
HamKam2
Start1
L
19.04.26ELI
Start1
Molde1
D
11.04.26ELI
Lillestrom3
Start1
L
06.04.26ELI
Sarpsborg 081
Start1
D
27.03.26CF
Tromso1
Start0
L
21.03.26ELI
Start1
Aalesund1
D
15.03.26ELI
KFUM Oslo2
Start0
L
08.03.26CF
Sandefjord3
Start2
L
28.02.26CF
Bryne2
Start2
D
24.02.26CF
Rosenborg2
Start1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Case Notes

On Thursday, 30th April 2026, Bodo Glimt host Start in Norway Eliteserien. Our analysis desk recommends Bodo Glimt to win as the standout selection.

Bodo Glimt arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Start are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 4D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Bodo Glimt, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Start's 3, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: bodo glimt to win at odds of 1.07 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


If you want to actually make money on football instead of just throwing it away, you have to trust the stats. This Norway Eliteserien game is a perfect chance to do exactly that. Forget about the fan hype and focus entirely on how these teams are actually playing on the grass.

We always check the home team first to set the stage. Their overall season gives us a starting point, but their recent matches tell us if they are hot or cold right now in the moments that matter. Then we turn our attention to the away side.

We compare what they have done all year with their last few weeks to see if the bookies are offering a really good deal by mistake. Looking at their past matchups against each other is just as important. Head-to-head records often reveal playing styles that just do not mix well for one team, creating a natural advantage.

Taking those past games and adding today’s form makes picking a winner so much easier. Right now, the smartest bet on the board is 1, especially with the odds sitting nicely at @1.07. Once the referee starts the game, the stats step aside and the players take over.

The final score will tell us if we got it right. Check our other daily tips for more winning ideas.

Source: Recent fixture results Source: Head-to-head archive Source: Public market odds Model: Poisson score distribution
DD
DailyForebet Verification Desk
Senior Fixture Analyst
Cross-checks every fixture against form, head-to-head and market data before a case file is closed for publication.
Reviewed on 30 Apr 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Bodo Glimt vs Start?
Our selection is 1 — Bodo Glimt to win, priced at approximately 1.07. Tip confidence rating: 60%.
What is Bodo Glimt's current form?
Bodo Glimt have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Start been performing recently?
Start have recorded 0 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Bodo Glimt lead with 5 wins versus Start's 3, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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